IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v36y2011i8p2278-2286.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Monte Carlo approach to generator portfolio planning and carbon emissions assessments of systems with large penetrations of variable renewables

Author

Listed:
  • Hart, Elaine K.
  • Jacobson, Mark Z.

Abstract

A new generator portfolio planning model is described that is capable of quantifying the carbon emissions associated with systems that include very high penetrations of variable renewables. The model combines a deterministic renewable portfolio planning module with a Monte Carlo simulation of system operation that determines the expected least-cost dispatch from each technology, the necessary reserve capacity, and the expected carbon emissions at each hour. Each system is designed to meet a maximum loss of load expectation requirement of 1 day in 10 years. The present study includes wind, centralized solar thermal, and rooftop photovoltaics, as well as hydroelectric, geothermal, and natural gas plants. The portfolios produced by the model take advantage of the aggregation of variable generators at multiple geographically disperse sites and the incorporation of meteorological and load forecasts. Results are presented from a model run of the continuous two-year period, 2005–2006 in the California ISO operating area. A low-carbon portfolio is produced for this system that is capable of achieving an 80% reduction in electric power sector carbon emissions from 2005 levels and supplying over 99% of the annual delivered load with non-carbon sources. A portfolio is also built for a projected 2050 system, which is capable of providing 96% of the delivered electricity from non-carbon sources, despite a projected doubling of the 2005 system peak load. The results suggest that further reductions in carbon emissions may be achieved with emerging technologies that can reliably provide large capacities without necessarily providing positive net annual energy generation. These technologies may include demand response, vehicle-to-grid systems, and large-scale energy storage.

Suggested Citation

  • Hart, Elaine K. & Jacobson, Mark Z., 2011. "A Monte Carlo approach to generator portfolio planning and carbon emissions assessments of systems with large penetrations of variable renewables," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2278-2286.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:36:y:2011:i:8:p:2278-2286
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2011.01.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148111000371
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2011.01.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maddaloni, Jesse D. & Rowe, Andrew M. & van Kooten, G. Cornelis, 2009. "Wind integration into various generation mixtures," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 807-814.
    2. Zhou, Wei & Lou, Chengzhi & Li, Zhongshi & Lu, Lin & Yang, Hongxing, 2010. "Current status of research on optimum sizing of stand-alone hybrid solar-wind power generation systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 380-389, February.
    3. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Leahy, M., 2010. "A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(4), pages 1059-1082, April.
    4. Lund, H., 2006. "Large-scale integration of optimal combinations of PV, wind and wave power into the electricity supply," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 503-515.
    5. DeCarolis, Joseph F. & Keith, David W., 2006. "The economics of large-scale wind power in a carbon constrained world," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 395-410, March.
    6. Hirst, Eric & Hild, Jeffrey, 2004. "The Value of Wind Energy as a Function of Wind Capacity," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 11-20, July.
    7. Ekren, Orhan & Ekren, Banu Y., 2010. "Size optimization of a PV/wind hybrid energy conversion system with battery storage using simulated annealing," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 592-598, February.
    8. Milligan, Michael & Porter, Kevin, 2006. "The Capacity Value of Wind in the United States: Methods and Implementation," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 91-99, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Delucchi, Mark A. & Jacobson, Mark Z., 2011. "Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part II: Reliability, system and transmission costs, and policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1170-1190, March.
    2. Caballero, F. & Sauma, E. & Yanine, F., 2013. "Business optimal design of a grid-connected hybrid PV (photovoltaic)-wind energy system without energy storage for an Easter Island's block," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 248-261.
    3. Thirunavukkarasu, M. & Sawle, Yashwant & Lala, Himadri, 2023. "A comprehensive review on optimization of hybrid renewable energy systems using various optimization techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    4. Succar, Samir & Denkenberger, David C. & Williams, Robert H., 2012. "Optimization of specific rating for wind turbine arrays coupled to compressed air energy storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 222-234.
    5. Hirth, Lion, 2013. "The market value of variable renewables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 218-236.
    6. Mills, Andrew & Phadke, Amol & Wiser, Ryan, 2011. "Exploration of resource and transmission expansion decisions in the Western Renewable Energy Zone initiative," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1732-1745, March.
    7. Erdinc, O. & Uzunoglu, M., 2012. "Optimum design of hybrid renewable energy systems: Overview of different approaches," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 1412-1425.
    8. Suomalainen, K. & Silva, C. & Ferrão, P. & Connors, S., 2013. "Wind power design in isolated energy systems: Impacts of daily wind patterns," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 533-540.
    9. Mahesh, Aeidapu & Sandhu, Kanwarjit Singh, 2015. "Hybrid wind/photovoltaic energy system developments: Critical review and findings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1135-1147.
    10. McPherson, Madeleine & Karney, Bryan, 2017. "A scenario based approach to designing electricity grids with high variable renewable energy penetrations in Ontario, Canada: Development and application of the SILVER model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 185-196.
    11. Upadhyay, Subho & Sharma, M.P., 2014. "A review on configurations, control and sizing methodologies of hybrid energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 47-63.
    12. Anoune, Kamal & Bouya, Mohsine & Astito, Abdelali & Abdellah, Abdellatif Ben, 2018. "Sizing methods and optimization techniques for PV-wind based hybrid renewable energy system: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 652-673.
    13. Lion Hirth, 2013. "The Market Value of Variable Renewables. The Effect of Solar and Wind Power Variability on their Relative Price," RSCAS Working Papers 2013/36, European University Institute.
    14. Fathima, A. Hina & Palanisamy, K., 2015. "Optimization in microgrids with hybrid energy systems – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 431-446.
    15. Krajacic, Goran & Duic, Neven & Carvalho, Maria da Graça, 2011. "How to achieve a 100% RES electricity supply for Portugal?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 508-517, February.
    16. Ma, Tao & Yang, Hongxing & Lu, Lin & Peng, Jinqing, 2014. "Technical feasibility study on a standalone hybrid solar-wind system with pumped hydro storage for a remote island in Hong Kong," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 7-15.
    17. Mudasser, Muhammad & Yiridoe, Emmanuel K. & Corscadden, Kenneth, 2015. "Cost-benefit analysis of grid-connected wind–biogas hybrid energy production, by turbine capacity and site," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 573-582.
    18. Lund, Henrik & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2012. "The role of Carbon Capture and Storage in a future sustainable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 469-476.
    19. Kaabeche, A. & Belhamel, M. & Ibtiouen, R., 2011. "Sizing optimization of grid-independent hybrid photovoltaic/wind power generation system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 1214-1222.
    20. Liu, Liuchen & Zhu, Tong & Pan, Yu & Wang, Hai, 2017. "Multiple energy complementation based on distributed energy systems – Case study of Chongming county, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 329-336.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:36:y:2011:i:8:p:2278-2286. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.