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Assessment of end-use electricity consumption and peak demand by Townsville's housing stock

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  • Ren, Zhengen
  • Paevere, Phillip
  • Grozev, George
  • Egan, Stephen
  • Anticev, Julia

Abstract

We have developed a comprehensive model to estimate annual end-use electricity consumption and peak demand of housing stock, considering occupants' use of air conditioning systems and major appliances. The model was applied to analyse private dwellings in Townsville, Australia's largest tropical city. For the financial year (FY) 2010–11 the predicted results agreed with the actual electricity consumption with an error less than 10% for cooling thermostat settings at the standard setting temperature of 26.5°C and at 1.0°C higher than the standard setting. The greatest difference in monthly electricity consumption in the summer season between the model and the actual data decreased from 21% to 2% when the thermostat setting was changed from 26.5°C to 27.5°C. Our findings also showed that installation of solar panels in Townville houses could reduce electricity demand from the grid and would have a minor impact on the yearly peak demand. A key new feature of the model is that it can be used to predict probability distribution of energy demand considering (a) that appliances may be used randomly and (b) the way people use thermostats. The peak demand for the FY estimated from the probability distribution tracked the actual peak demand at 97% confidence level.

Suggested Citation

  • Ren, Zhengen & Paevere, Phillip & Grozev, George & Egan, Stephen & Anticev, Julia, 2013. "Assessment of end-use electricity consumption and peak demand by Townsville's housing stock," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 888-893.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:61:y:2013:i:c:p:888-893
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.067
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ren, Zhengen & Paevere, Phillip & McNamara, Cheryl, 2012. "A local-community-level, physically-based model of end-use energy consumption by Australian housing stock," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 586-596.
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    1. Ren, Zhengen & Grozev, George & Higgins, Andrew, 2016. "Modelling impact of PV battery systems on energy consumption and bill savings of Australian houses under alternative tariff structures," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 317-330.
    2. Ren, Zhengen & Chen, Dong, 2018. "Modelling study of the impact of thermal comfort criteria on housing energy use in Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 152-166.
    3. Byrne, Paul & Fournaison, Laurence & Delahaye, Anthony & Ait Oumeziane, Yacine & Serres, Laurent & Loulergue, Patrick & Szymczyk, Anthony & Mugnier, Daniel & Malaval, Jean-Luc & Bourdais, Romain & Gue, 2015. "A review on the coupling of cooling, desalination and solar photovoltaic systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 703-717.
    4. Arias-Gaviria, Jessica & Larsen, Erik R. & Arango-Aramburo, Santiago, 2018. "Understanding the future of Seawater Air Conditioning in the Caribbean: A simulation approach," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 73-83.

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