IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v52y2013icp85-102.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The evolution of electricity demand and the role for demand side participation, in buildings and transport

Author

Listed:
  • Barton, John
  • Huang, Sikai
  • Infield, David
  • Leach, Matthew
  • Ogunkunle, Damiete
  • Torriti, Jacopo
  • Thomson, Murray

Abstract

This paper explores the possible evolution of UK electricity demand as we move along three potential transition pathways to a low carbon economy in 2050. The shift away from fossil fuels through the electrification of demand is discussed, particularly through the uptake of heat pumps and electric vehicles in the domestic and passenger transport sectors. Developments in the way people and institutions may use energy along each of the pathways are also considered and provide a rationale for the quantification of future annual electricity demands in various broad sectors. The paper then presents detailed modelling of hourly balancing of these demands in the context of potential low carbon generation mixes associated with the three pathways. In all cases, hourly balancing is shown to be a significant challenge. To minimise the need for conventional generation to operate with very low capacity factors, a variety of demand side participation measures are modelled and shown to provide significant benefits. Lastly, projections of operational greenhouse gas emissions from the UK and the imports of fossil fuels to the UK for each of the three pathways are presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Barton, John & Huang, Sikai & Infield, David & Leach, Matthew & Ogunkunle, Damiete & Torriti, Jacopo & Thomson, Murray, 2013. "The evolution of electricity demand and the role for demand side participation, in buildings and transport," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 85-102.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:52:y:2013:i:c:p:85-102
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.08.040
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421512007227
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.08.040?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernandes, D. & Pitié, F. & Cáceres, G. & Baeyens, J., 2012. "Thermal energy storage: “How previous findings determine current research priorities”," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 246-257.
    2. Sinden, Graham, 2007. "Characteristics of the UK wind resource: Long-term patterns and relationship to electricity demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 112-127, January.
    3. Monahan, J. & Powell, J.C., 2011. "A comparison of the energy and carbon implications of new systems of energy provision in new build housing in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 290-298, January.
    4. Kannan, Ramachandran & Strachan, Neil, 2009. "Modelling the UK residential energy sector under long-term decarbonisation scenarios: Comparison between energy systems and sectoral modelling approaches," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 416-428, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anandarajah, Gabrial & Strachan, Neil, 2010. "Interactions and implications of renewable and climate change policy on UK energy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6724-6735, November.
    2. Kannan, R., 2009. "Uncertainties in key low carbon power generation technologies - Implication for UK decarbonisation targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(10), pages 1873-1886, October.
    3. Chen, Han & Huang, Ye & Shen, Huizhong & Chen, Yilin & Ru, Muye & Chen, Yuanchen & Lin, Nan & Su, Shu & Zhuo, Shaojie & Zhong, Qirui & Wang, Xilong & Liu, Junfeng & Li, Bengang & Tao, Shu, 2016. "Modeling temporal variations in global residential energy consumption and pollutant emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 820-829.
    4. Beata Pytlik & Daniel Smykowski & Piotr Szulc, 2022. "The Impact of Baffle Geometry in the PCM Heat Storage Unit on the Charging Process with High and Low Water Streams," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Michael O. Dioha & Nnaemeka Vincent Emodi, 2019. "Investigating the Impacts of Energy Access Scenarios in the Nigerian Household Sector by 2030," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-18, July.
    6. Jean-Luc Gaffard & Mauro Napoletano, 2012. "Agent-based models and economic policy," Post-Print hal-03461120, HAL.
    7. Bojić, Milorad & Cvetković, Dragan & Bojić, Ljubiša, 2015. "Decreasing energy use and influence to environment by radiant panel heating using different energy sources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 404-413.
    8. Rubin, Ofir D. & Babcock, Bruce A., 2013. "The impact of expansion of wind power capacity and pricing methods on the efficiency of deregulated electricity markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 676-688.
    9. Zhang, Yuang & Wang, Lingjuan & Tang, Bingtao & Lu, Rongwen & Zhang, Shufen, 2016. "Form-stable phase change materials with high phase change enthalpy from the composite of paraffin and cross-linking phase change structure," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 241-246.
    10. McKenna, R. & Hofmann, L. & Merkel, E. & Fichtner, W. & Strachan, N., 2016. "Analysing socioeconomic diversity and scaling effects on residential electricity load profiles in the context of low carbon technology uptake," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 13-26.
    11. Aldersey-Williams, John & Broadbent, Ian D. & Strachan, Peter A., 2020. "Analysis of United Kingdom offshore wind farm performance using public data: Improving the evidence base for policymaking," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    12. Scott Kelly & Michael Pollitt & Doug Crawford-Brown, 2011. "Building performance evaluation and certification in the UK: a critical review of SAP?," Working Papers EPRG 1219, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    13. Gholami, M. & Barbaresi, A. & Torreggiani, D. & Tassinari, P., 2020. "Upscaling of spatial energy planning, phases, methods, and techniques: A systematic review through meta-analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    14. Vincenzo Bianco & Annalisa Marchitto & Federico Scarpa & Luca A. Tagliafico, 2020. "Forecasting Energy Consumption in the EU Residential Sector," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-15, March.
    15. Cannon, D.J. & Brayshaw, D.J. & Methven, J. & Coker, P.J. & Lenaghan, D., 2015. "Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics: A 33 year case study in Great Britain," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 767-778.
    16. Kelly, Scott & Crawford-Brown, Doug & Pollitt, Michael G., 2012. "Building performance evaluation and certification in the UK: Is SAP fit for purpose?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(9), pages 6861-6878.
    17. Burnett, Dougal & Barbour, Edward & Harrison, Gareth P., 2014. "The UK solar energy resource and the impact of climate change," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 333-343.
    18. Yong Zeng & Yanpeng Cai & Guohe Huang & Jing Dai, 2011. "A Review on Optimization Modeling of Energy Systems Planning and GHG Emission Mitigation under Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(10), pages 1-33, October.
    19. Elliston, Ben & Riesz, Jenny & MacGill, Iain, 2016. "What cost for more renewables? The incremental cost of renewable generation – An Australian National Electricity Market case study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 127-139.
    20. Rakib, M.I. & Evans, S.P. & Clausen, P.D., 2020. "Measured gust events in the urban environment, a comparison with the IEC standard," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 1134-1142.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:52:y:2013:i:c:p:85-102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.