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How and when China will exceed its renewable energy deployment targets

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  • Santalco, Aldo

Abstract

This paper is focused on the renewable energy targets set by China in its 12th National Development Plan 2011–2015. In particular, the paper examines deployment targets and the means to achieve them, for hydro, wind and solar. These are its priority technologies, in which the country has a level of competitive advantage. For each of these energy sources, four projections have been produced. These projections show whether and when China will meet its deployment targets in terms of the cumulative amount of gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity by 2015. In doing this, historical data from 2005 to 2010 has been analyzed for all three energy sources. Both the average annual growth rate (AAGR), and the compound average growth rate (CAGR) have been computed, in terms of the world averages and China's national performance over this period. AAGR and CAGR have been used for producing four scenarios for each renewable energy, and a logarithmic scale has been applied to them in order to make them more reliable by smoothing out excessive fluctuations. The most likely scenarios for each technology are described. Finally, the gap between these scenarios and the respective national targets set for 2015 and 2020 are calculated.

Suggested Citation

  • Santalco, Aldo, 2012. "How and when China will exceed its renewable energy deployment targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 652-661.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:51:y:2012:i:c:p:652-661
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.09.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Huang, Hailun & Yan, Zheng, 2009. "Present situation and future prospect of hydropower in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(6-7), pages 1652-1656, August.
    2. Chang, XiaoLin & Liu, Xinghong & Zhou, Wei, 2010. "Hydropower in China at present and its further development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 4400-4406.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Qi, Tianyu & Zhang, Xiliang & Karplus, Valerie J., 2014. "The energy and CO2 emissions impact of renewable energy development in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 60-69.
    3. Kostka, Genia, 2013. "China's evolving green planning system: Are targets the answer?," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 201, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    4. Huiru Zhao & Sen Guo & Hongze Li, 2015. "Economic Impact Assessment of Wind Power Integration: A Quasi-Public Goods Property Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-26, August.
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