The inevitability of ‘flotilla policies’ as complements or alternatives to flagship emissions trading schemes

The global climate policy environment is currently characterised by a small number of national or regional ‘flagship’ emissions trading schemes and a very large number of smaller more targeted ‘flotilla’ policies. We use an assessment framework to identify the characteristics of policies that affect their likelihood of introduction and alteration during the policy development process. We conclude that this mix of flagship and flotilla policies is at least in part an inevitable consequence of incumbent stakeholder pressure that results in flagship policies being blocked or weakened by those opposing action, and if weakened sufficiently, possibly blocked by those seeking stronger action. In contrast, smaller flotilla policies can be designed to have less impact on large incumbents and/or be of benefit to a different group of stakeholders who then provide political support. As a result, flotilla policies are likely to remain as key elements of the climate policy mix, to reduce emissions beyond those achieved by flagship policies, and to reduce emissions where no flagship policies exist. These findings have two consequences for policy design: the need to ensure that flagship policies do not reduce the effectiveness of flotilla policies, and that flagship policies are capable of being enhanced over time.