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Modeling transitions in the California light-duty vehicles sector to achieve deep reductions in transportation greenhouse gas emissions

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  • Leighty, Wayne
  • Ogden, Joan M.
  • Yang, Christopher

Abstract

California’s target for reducing economy-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. We develop transition scenarios for meeting this goal in California’s transportation sector, with focus on light-duty vehicles (LDVs). We explore four questions: (1) what options are available to reduce transportation sector GHG emissions 80% below 1990 levels by 2050; (2) how rapidly would transitions in LDV markets, fuels, and travel behaviors need to occur over the next 40 years; (3) how do intermediate policy goals relate to different transition pathways; (4) how would rates of technological change and market adoption between 2010 and 2050 impact cumulative GHG emissions?

Suggested Citation

  • Leighty, Wayne & Ogden, Joan M. & Yang, Christopher, 2012. "Modeling transitions in the California light-duty vehicles sector to achieve deep reductions in transportation greenhouse gas emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 52-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:44:y:2012:i:c:p:52-67
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.01.013
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    6. González Palencia, Juan C. & Araki, Mikiya & Shiga, Seiichi, 2016. "Energy, environmental and economic impact of mini-sized and zero-emission vehicle diffusion on a light-duty vehicle fleet," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 96-109.
    7. Long, Zoe & Axsen, Jonn & Kitt, Shelby, 2020. "Public support for supply-focused transport policies: Vehicle emissions, low-carbon fuels, and ZEV sales standards in Canada and California," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 98-115.
    8. Oh, Yunjung & Park, Junhong & Lee, Jong Tae & Seo, Jigu & Park, Sungwook, 2016. "Development strategies to satisfy corporate average CO2 emission regulations of light duty vehicles (LDVs) in Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 121-132.
    9. González Palencia, Juan C. & Otsuka, Yuki & Araki, Mikiya & Shiga, Seiichi, 2017. "Scenario analysis of lightweight and electric-drive vehicle market penetration in the long-term and impact on the light-duty vehicle fleet," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 1444-1462.
    10. Yang, Christopher, 2013. "Fuel electricity and plug-in electric vehicles in a low carbon fuel standard," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 51-62.
    11. Yang, Christopher & Yeh, Sonia & Zakerinia, Saleh & Ramea, Kalai & McCollum, David, 2015. "Achieving California's 80% greenhouse gas reduction target in 2050: Technology, policy and scenario analysis using CA-TIMES energy economic systems model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 118-130.
    12. Mustapa, Siti Indati & Bekhet, Hussain Ali, 2016. "Analysis of CO2 emissions reduction in the Malaysian transportation sector: An optimisation approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 171-183.
    13. J. Javid, Roxana & Nejat, Ali & Hayhoe, Katharine, 2014. "Selection of CO2 mitigation strategies for road transportation in the United States using a multi-criteria approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 960-972.
    14. AlSabbagh, Maha & Siu, Yim Ling & Guehnemann, Astrid & Barrett, John, 2017. "Integrated approach to the assessment of CO2e-mitigation measures for the road passenger transport sector in Bahrain," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 203-215.
    15. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    16. Fontes, T. & Pereira, S.R., 2014. "Impact assessment of road fleet transitions on emissions: The case study of a medium European size country," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 175-185.
    17. Alshammari, Yousef M. & Sarathy, S. Mani, 2017. "Achieving 80% greenhouse gas reduction target in Saudi Arabia under low and medium oil prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 502-511.
    18. Chen, Yuche & Meier, Alan, 2016. "Fuel consumption impacts of auto roof racks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 325-333.

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