IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v42y2012icp468-475.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

CO2 emissions and economic development: China's 12th five-year plan

Author

Listed:
  • Meng, Ming
  • Niu, Dongxiao
  • Shang, Wei

Abstract

For the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011–2015), the Chinese government has decided to reconsider and adjust its policies on economic development because of the pressures of CO2 emissions and fossil energy consumption. The current paper adopts the logarithmic Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model to simulate the relationship between CO2 emissions and other economic development factors in China. Three groups of outliers are found using samples from 1989 to 2008 and the Partial Least Square (PLS) regularity test method. The outlier analysis reveals three important areas for CO2 reduction: (a) decreasing the share of coal to the total energy consumption and replacing it with non-fossil energies; (b) controlling vehicles used in the cities as well as (c) adjusting industrial structure. Furthermore, based on the social and economic realities of China, the current paper designs six feasible development scenarios for the period covered by the 12th Five-Year Plan and predicts the values of each factor in each scenario. The values can test the implementation of China's CO2 control development concept. The experiences obtained by outlier analysis can be of significant reference value for realizing the predicted scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Meng, Ming & Niu, Dongxiao & Shang, Wei, 2012. "CO2 emissions and economic development: China's 12th five-year plan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 468-475.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:42:y:2012:i:c:p:468-475
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.12.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511010056
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.12.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feng, Zhen-Hua & Zou, Le-Le & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2011. "The impact of household consumption on energy use and CO2 emissions in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 656-670.
    2. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Maruotti, Antonello, 2011. "The impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions: Evidence from developing countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(7), pages 1344-1353, May.
    3. Wang, Yu, 2010. "The analysis of the impacts of energy consumption on environment and public health in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 4473-4479.
    4. Siitonen, Sari & Tuomaala, Mari & Ahtila, Pekka, 2010. "Variables affecting energy efficiency and CO2 emissions in the steel industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2477-2485, May.
    5. Squalli, Jay, 2010. "An empirical assessment of U.S. state-level immigration and environmental emissions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(5), pages 1170-1175, March.
    6. Hammond, G.P.Geoffrey P., 2004. "Towards sustainability: energy efficiency, thermodynamic analysis, and the `two cultures'," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(16), pages 1789-1798, November.
    7. Saikku, Laura & Rautiainen, Aapo & Kauppi, Pekka E., 2008. "The sustainability challenge of meeting carbon dioxide targets in Europe by 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 730-742, February.
    8. York, Richard & Rosa, Eugene A. & Dietz, Thomas, 2003. "STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 351-365, October.
    9. Lee, Cheng F. & Lin, Sue J. & Lewis, Charles, 2008. "Analysis of the impacts of combining carbon taxation and emission trading on different industry sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 722-729, February.
    10. Duan, Hongxia, 2010. "The public perspective of carbon capture and storage for CO2 emission reductions in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5281-5289, September.
    11. Wu, Jisong & Zhang, Yongjie, 2008. "Olympic Games promote the reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases in Beijing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3422-3426, September.
    12. Zhou, Nan & Fridley, David & McNeil, Michael & Zheng, Nina & Letschert, Virginie & Ke, Jing & Saheb, Yamina, 2011. "Analysis of potential energy saving and CO2 emission reduction of home appliances and commercial equipments in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 4541-4550, August.
    13. Wang, Qiang & Chen, Yong, 2010. "Energy saving and emission reduction revolutionizing China's environmental protection," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 535-539, January.
    14. Meng, Ming & Niu, Dongxiao, 2011. "Modeling CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion using the logistic equation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3355-3359.
    15. Donglan, Zha & Dequn, Zhou & Peng, Zhou, 2010. "Driving forces of residential CO2 emissions in urban and rural China: An index decomposition analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3377-3383, July.
    16. Yi, Wen-Jing & Zou, Le-Le & Guo, Jie & Wang, Kai & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2011. "How can China reach its CO2 intensity reduction targets by 2020? A regional allocation based on equity and development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2407-2415, May.
    17. Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus & Guan, Dabo, 2009. "Lifestyles, technology and CO2 emissions in China: A regional comparative analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 145-154, November.
    18. Lin, Jiang & Zhou, Nan & Levine, Mark & Fridley, David, 2008. "Taking out 1 billion tons of CO2: The magic of China's 11th Five-Year Plan?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 954-970, March.
    19. Tan, Zhongfu & Li, Li & Wang, Jianjun & Wang, Jianhui, 2011. "Examining the driving forces for improving China’s CO2 emission intensity using the decomposing method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 4496-4504.
    20. Ma, Chunbo & Stern, David I., 2008. "Biomass and China's carbon emissions: A missing piece of carbon decomposition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2517-2526, July.
    21. He, Jiankun & Deng, Jing & Su, Mingshan, 2010. "CO2 emission from China's energy sector and strategy for its control," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 4494-4498.
    22. Shen, Lei & Andrews-Speed, Philip, 2001. "Economic analysis of reform policies for small coal mines in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 247-254, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Zhaohui & Tan, Yafei, 2022. "Can green industrial policy promote green innovation in heavily polluting enterprises? Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 59-75.
    2. Xuankai Deng & Yanhua Yu & Yanfang Liu, 2015. "Temporal and Spatial Variations in Provincial CO 2 Emissions in China from 2005 to 2015 and Assessment of a Reduction Plan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-23, May.
    3. Shi, Changfeng & Zhi, Jiaqi & Yao, Xiao & Zhang, Hong & Yu, Yue & Zeng, Qingshun & Li, Luji & Zhang, Yuxi, 2023. "How can China achieve the 2030 carbon peak goal—a crossover analysis based on low-carbon economics and deep learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    4. Meng, Ming & Niu, Dongxiao, 2012. "Three-dimensional decomposition models for carbon productivity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 179-187.
    5. Wenhui Tian & Pascal da Costa & Jean-Claude Bocquet, 2015. "Inequalities of Sectors CO 2 emissions in China, USA and France, 2010-2050," Working Papers hal-01219769, HAL.
    6. Pengyan Zhang & Jianjian He & Xin Hong & Wei Zhang & Chengzhe Qin & Bo Pang & Yanyan Li & Yu Liu, 2017. "Regional-Level Carbon Emissions Modelling and Scenario Analysis: A STIRPAT Case Study in Henan Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Wang, Jianjun & Li, Li, 2016. "Sustainable energy development scenario forecasting and energy saving policy analysis of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 718-724.
    8. Pascal da Costa & Wenhui Tian, 2015. "A Sectoral Prospective Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China, USA and France, 2010-2050," Working Papers hal-01026302, HAL.
    9. Meng, Ming & Shang, Wei & Zhao, Xiaoli & Niu, Dongxiao & Li, Wei, 2015. "Decomposition and forecasting analysis of China's energy efficiency: An application of three-dimensional decomposition and small-sample hybrid models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 283-293.
    10. Meng, Ming & Niu, Dongxiao & Shang, Wei, 2014. "A small-sample hybrid model for forecasting energy-related CO2 emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 673-677.
    11. Li Li & Jianjun Wang, 2015. "The Effects of Coal Switching and Improvements in Electricity Production Efficiency and Consumption on CO 2 Mitigation Goals in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(7), pages 1-20, July.
    12. Zhao, Jun & Jiang, Qingzhe & Dong, Xiucheng & Dong, Kangyin & Jiang, Hongdian, 2022. "How does industrial structure adjustment reduce CO2 emissions? Spatial and mediation effects analysis for China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaoxia Shi & Haiyun Liu & Joshua Sunday Riti, 2019. "The role of energy mix and financial development in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions’ reduction: evidence from ten leading CO2 emitting countries," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 36(3), pages 695-729, October.
    2. Wei Sun & Ming Meng & Yujun He & Hong Chang, 2016. "CO 2 Emissions from China’s Power Industry: Scenarios and Policies for 13th Five-Year Plan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-16, October.
    3. Wang, Shaojian & Fang, Chuanglin & Guan, Xingliang & Pang, Bo & Ma, Haitao, 2014. "Urbanisation, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions in China: A panel data analysis of China’s provinces," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 738-749.
    4. Al-mulali, Usama & Fereidouni, Hassan Gholipour & Lee, Janice Y.M. & Sab, Che Normee Binti Che, 2013. "Exploring the relationship between urbanization, energy consumption, and CO2 emission in MENA countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 107-112.
    5. Zhang, Chuanguo & Lin, Yan, 2012. "Panel estimation for urbanization, energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A regional analysis in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 488-498.
    6. Wang, Qiang & Wu, Shi-dai & Zeng, Yue-e & Wu, Bo-wei, 2016. "Exploring the relationship between urbanization, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in different provinces of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1563-1579.
    7. Meng, Ming & Niu, Dongxiao, 2012. "Three-dimensional decomposition models for carbon productivity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 179-187.
    8. Hu, Zongyi & Tang, Liwei, 2013. "Exploring the relation between urbanization and residential CO2 emissions in China: a PTR approach," MPRA Paper 55379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Shao, Shuai & Yang, Lili & Yu, Mingbo & Yu, Mingliang, 2011. "Estimation, characteristics, and determinants of energy-related industrial CO2 emissions in Shanghai (China), 1994-2009," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6476-6494, October.
    10. Pascal da Costa & Wenhui Tian, 2015. "A Sectoral Prospective Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China, USA and France, 2010-2050," Working Papers hal-01026302, HAL.
    11. Lin, Boqiang & Ouyang, Xiaoling, 2014. "Analysis of energy-related CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions and reduction potential in the Chinese non-metallic mineral products industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 688-697.
    12. Squalli, Jay, 2017. "Renewable energy, coal as a baseload power source, and greenhouse gas emissions: Evidence from U.S. state-level data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 479-488.
    13. Yanan Wang & Wei Chen & Minjuan Zhao & Bowen Wang, 2019. "Analysis of the influencing factors on CO2 emissions at different urbanization levels: regional difference in China based on panel estimation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(2), pages 627-645, March.
    14. Vaninsky, Alexander, 2014. "Factorial decomposition of CO2 emissions: A generalized Divisia index approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 389-400.
    15. Niu, Honglei & Lekse, William, 2017. "Carbon emission effect of urbanization at regional level: Empirical evidence from China," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-62, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Al-mulali, Usama & Binti Che Sab, Che Normee & Fereidouni, Hassan Gholipour, 2012. "Exploring the bi-directional long run relationship between urbanization, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emission," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 156-167.
    17. Zhu, Qin & Peng, Xizhe & Wu, Kaiya, 2012. "Calculation and decomposition of indirect carbon emissions from residential consumption in China based on the input–output model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 618-626.
    18. Zhang, Chuanguo & Nian, Jiang, 2013. "Panel estimation for transport sector CO2 emissions and its affecting factors: A regional analysis in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 918-926.
    19. Haiyan Zhang & Michael L. Lahr, 2018. "Households’ Energy Consumption Change in China: A Multi-Regional Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-17, July.
    20. Zhang, Pan & Wang, Huan, 2022. "Do provincial energy policies and energy intensity targets help reduce CO2 emissions? Evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:42:y:2012:i:c:p:468-475. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.