IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v37y2009i9p3557-3565.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparison of China's oil import risk: Results based on portfolio theory and a diversification index approach

Author

Listed:
  • Wu, Gang
  • Liu, Lan-Cui
  • Wei, Yi-Ming

Abstract

In recent years, the international oil price has fluctuated violently, bringing about huge risk for the international oil trade. In fact, the risk of crude oil and petroleum product imports is different because of the different import origins and prices. Which import risk is lower for China? From the perspective of oil supply security, how should China portfolio crude oil and petroleum product imports to minimize its oil import risk? Using portfolio theory and a diversification index approach, this paper compares and analyzes the supply, price and transport risks of crude oil and petroleum product imports. Our results show that the following: (1) Specific risk (diversification risk) and marine transport risk of China's petroleum product imports are lower than that of crude oil imports. (2) The average rate of return of China's petroleum product imports is higher than that of crude oil imports. Moreover, the average import price variance of petroleum product imports is lower than that of crude oil imports. Thus, the systematic risk (price risk) of petroleum products is lower too. Therefore, from the perspective of oil supply security, China should increase petroleum product imports to decrease its oil import risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Gang & Liu, Lan-Cui & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2009. "Comparison of China's oil import risk: Results based on portfolio theory and a diversification index approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3557-3565, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:9:p:3557-3565
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4215(09)00262-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eric Nauenberg & Mahdi Alkhamisi & Yuri Andrijuk, 2004. "Simulation of a Hirschman–Herfindahl index without complete market share information," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 87-94, January.
    2. Stern, Jonathan, 2004. "UK gas security: time to get serious," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(17), pages 1967-1979, November.
    3. Salameh, Mamdouh G., 2003. "The new frontiers for the United States energy security in the 21st century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-3), pages 135-144, September.
    4. Wu, Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Fan, Ying & Liu, Lan-Cui, 2007. "An empirical analysis of the risk of crude oil imports in China using improved portfolio approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4190-4199, August.
    5. Li, Xianguo, 2005. "Diversification and localization of energy systems for sustainable development and energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(17), pages 2237-2243, November.
    6. Pandian, S., 2005. "The political economy of trans-Pakistan gas pipeline project: assessing the political and economic risks for India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 659-670, March.
    7. Gupta, Eshita, 2008. "Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1195-1211, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sato, Masahiro & Kharrazi, Ali & Nakayama, Hirofumi & Kraines, Steven & Yarime, Masaru, 2017. "Quantifying the supplier-portfolio diversity of embodied energy: Strategic implications for strengthening energy resilience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 41-52.
    2. Wu, Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Fan, Ying & Liu, Lan-Cui, 2007. "An empirical analysis of the risk of crude oil imports in China using improved portfolio approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4190-4199, August.
    3. Vivoda, Vlado, 2009. "Diversification of oil import sources and energy security: A key strategy or an elusive objective?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4623, November.
    4. Lan-Cui Liu & Gang Wu, 2015. "Assessment of energy supply vulnerability between China and USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 127-138, February.
    5. Edwards, Joel & Othman, Maazuza & Burn, Stewart, 2015. "A review of policy drivers and barriers for the use of anaerobic digestion in Europe, the United States and Australia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 815-828.
    6. Vivoda, Vlado, 2022. "LNG export diversification and demand security: A comparative study of major exporters," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    7. Chuang, Ming Chih & Ma, Hwong Wen, 2013. "Energy security and improvements in the function of diversity indices—Taiwan energy supply structure case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 9-20.
    8. Liu, Litao & Cao, Zhi & Liu, Xiaojie & Shi, Lei & Cheng, Shengkui & Liu, Gang, 2020. "Oil security revisited: An assessment based on complex network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    9. Cécile Couharde & Fatih Karanfil & Eric Gabin Kilama & Luc-Désiré Omgba, 2017. "The Importance of Oil in the Allocation of Foreign Aid: The case of the G7 donors," Working Papers hal-04141627, HAL.
    10. Couharde, Cécile & Karanfil, Fatih & Kilama, Eric Gabin & Omgba, Luc Désiré, 2020. "The role of oil in the allocation of foreign aid: The case of the G7 donors," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 363-383.
    11. Zhao, Chunfu & Chen, Bin, 2014. "China’s oil security from the supply chain perspective: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 269-279.
    12. Månsson, André & Johansson, Bengt & Nilsson, Lars J., 2014. "Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.
    13. Ediger, Volkan S. & Berk, Istemi, 2011. "Crude oil import policy of Turkey: Historical analysis of determinants and implications since 1968," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2132-2142, April.
    14. Sun, Xiaolei & Li, Jianping & Tang, Ling & Wu, Dengsheng, 2012. "Identifying the risk-return tradeoff and exploring the dynamic risk exposure of country portfolio of the FSU's oil economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2494-2503.
    15. Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Chen, Xiuwen & Li, Jianping, 2017. "Modeling systemic risk of crude oil imports: Case of China’s global oil supply chain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 449-465.
    16. Vivoda, Vlado, 2019. "LNG import diversification and energy security in Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 967-974.
    17. Ge, Fenglong & Fan, Ying, 2013. "Quantifying the risk to crude oil imports in China: An improved portfolio approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 72-80.
    18. Xiaolei Sun & Jun Hao & Jianping Li, 2022. "Multi-objective optimization of crude oil-supply portfolio based on interval prediction data," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 309(2), pages 611-639, February.
    19. Hughes, Larry & de Jong, Moniek & Wang, Xiao Qin, 2016. "A generic method for analyzing the risks to energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 895-908.
    20. Jian Xu & Jin-Suo Zhang & Qin Yao & Wei Zhang, 2014. "Is It Feasible for China to Optimize Oil Import Source Diversification?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-13, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:9:p:3557-3565. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.