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A decision support tool for the analysis of pricing, investment and regulatory processes in a decentralized electricity market

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  • Pasaoglu Kilanc, Guzay
  • Or, Ilhan

Abstract

After the liberalization of the electricity generation industry, capacity expansion decisions are made by multiple self-oriented power companies. Unlike the centralized environment, decision-making of market participants is now guided by price signal feedbacks and by an imperfect foresight of the future market conditions (and competitor actions) that they will face. In such an environment, decision makers need to better understand long-term dynamics of the supply and demand sides of the power market. In this study, a system dynamics model is developed, to better understand and analyze the decentralized and competitive electricity market dynamics in the long run. The developed simulation model oversees a 20-year planning horizon; it includes a demand module, a capacity expansion module, a power generation module, an accounting and finance module, various competitors, a regulatory body and a bidding mechanism. Many features, singularities and tools of decentralized markets, such as; capacity withholding, enforced divestment, long-term contracts, price-elastic demands, incentives/disincentives, are also incorporated into the model. Public regulators and power companies are potential users of the model, for learning and decision support in policy design and strategic planning. Results of scenario analysis are presented to illustrate potential use of the model.

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  • Pasaoglu Kilanc, Guzay & Or, Ilhan, 2008. "A decision support tool for the analysis of pricing, investment and regulatory processes in a decentralized electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3026-3034, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:8:p:3026-3034
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    1. Edward G. Anderson & David R. Keith & Jose Lopez, 2023. "Opportunities for system dynamics research in operations management for public policy," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(6), pages 1895-1920, June.
    2. Shahmohammadi, M. Sadegh & Mohd. Yusuff, Rosnah & Keyhanian, Sina & Shakouri G., Hamed, 2015. "A decision support system for evaluating effects of Feed-in Tariff mechanism: Dynamic modeling of Malaysia’s electricity generation mix," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 217-229.
    3. Hasani, Masoud & Hosseini, Seyed Hamid, 2011. "Dynamic assessment of capacity investment in electricity market considering complementary capacity mechanisms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 277-293.
    4. Hasani-Marzooni, Masoud & Hosseini, Seyed Hamid, 2011. "Dynamic model for market-based capacity investment decision considering stochastic characteristic of wind power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2205-2219.
    5. Pasaoglu, Guzay & Harrison, Gillian & Jones, Lee & Hill, Andrew & Beaudet, Alexandre & Thiel, Christian, 2016. "A system dynamics based market agent model simulating future powertrain technology transition: Scenarios in the EU light duty vehicle road transport sector," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 133-146.
    6. Hsiao, Chih-Tung & Liu, Chung-Shu & Chang, Dong-Shang & Chen, Chun-Cheng, 2018. "Dynamic modeling of the policy effect and development of electric power systems: A case in Taiwan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 377-387.
    7. Hasani-Marzooni, Masoud & Hosseini, Seyed Hamid, 2013. "Dynamic analysis of various investment incentives and regional capacity assignment in Iranian electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 271-284.
    8. Sommerfeldt, Nelson & Madani, Hatef, 2017. "Revisiting the techno-economic analysis process for building-mounted, grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems: Part one – Review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1379-1393.
    9. Armin Leopold, 2016. "Energy related system dynamic models: a literature review," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 24(1), pages 231-261, March.
    10. Pasaoglu, Güzay, 2011. "Using the decentralized and liberalized electricity market microworld (LEMM) as an educational tool," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 187-199, January.
    11. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2018. "State-of-the-art generation expansion planning: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 563-589.
    12. Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan, 2013. "Understanding the dynamics of electricity generation capacity in Canada: A system dynamics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 285-294.
    13. Nakajima, Tadahiro & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2010. "Change in consumer sensitivity to electricity prices in response to retail deregulation: A panel empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2470-2476, May.
    14. Teufel, Felix & Miller, Michael & Genoese, Massimo & Fichtner, Wolf, 2013. "Review of System Dynamics models for electricity market simulations," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 2, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    15. Ahmad, Salman & Tahar, Razman Mat & Muhammad-Sukki, Firdaus & Munir, Abu Bakar & Rahim, Ruzairi Abdul, 2015. "Role of feed-in tariff policy in promoting solar photovoltaic investments in Malaysia: A system dynamics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 808-815.
    16. Blumberga, Dagnija & Blumberga, Andra & Barisa, Aiga & Rosa, Marika & Lauka, Dace, 2016. "Modelling the Latvian power market to evaluate its environmental long-term performance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1593-1600.
    17. Ahmad, Salman & Mat Tahar, Razman & Muhammad-Sukki, Firdaus & Munir, Abu Bakar & Abdul Rahim, Ruzairi, 2016. "Application of system dynamics approach in electricity sector modelling: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 29-37.
    18. Martínez-Jaramillo, Juan Esteban & van Ackere, Ann & Larsen, Erik R., 2022. "Transitioning towards a 100% solar-hydro based generation: A system dynamic approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).

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