IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v195y2024ics0301421524004208.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Coal price, economic growth and electricity consumption in China under the background of energy transition

Author

Listed:
  • Lin, Boqiang
  • Shi, Fengyuan

Abstract

With the increasing share of renewable energy generation in China's electricity consumption and the dramatic fluctuation of coal prices in recent years, the discussion of the relationship between coal prices, economic growth and electricity consumption in China becomes more relevant. This paper collects monthly data from 2016 to 2023, uses industrial value added to represent economic growth, and explore the relationship between the three through a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model, which shows that: (1) The mutual impact effects among coal prices, economic growth, and electricity consumption vary across short-, medium- and long-term. This finding underscores the importance of considering different time horizons when evaluating the interactive effects of these variables. (2) Compared to 2017 and 2022, the lagged impact effects among the three have undergone certain changes, indicating that the understanding of their relationships should be contextualized within specific developmental phases. (3) The relationship between coal prices, economic growth, and different categories of electricity consumption exhibits heterogeneous characteristics, suggesting that recognition of these relationships should be based on specific types of power generation. This research enhances the understanding of the dynamic relationship between coal prices and the macroeconomy in China at the current stage.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Boqiang & Shi, Fengyuan, 2024. "Coal price, economic growth and electricity consumption in China under the background of energy transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:195:y:2024:i:c:s0301421524004208
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114400
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421524004208
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114400?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Yan & Xu, Yushi & Zhu, Xintong & Huang, Jionghao, 2024. "Coal price shock propagation through sectoral financial interconnectedness in China's stock market: Quantile coherency network modelling and shock decomposition analysis," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    2. Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir & Frodyma, Katarzyna, 2019. "Effects of renewable energy sector development on electricity consumption – Growth nexus in the European Union," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Osman, Mohamed & Gachino, Geoffrey & Hoque, Ariful, 2016. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in the GCC countries: Panel data analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 318-327.
    4. İçen, Hüseyin & Yerdelen Tatoğlu, Ferda, 2021. "The asymmetric effects of changes in price and income on renewable and nonrenewable energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 144-152.
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Song, Malin & Ahmad, Shabbir & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Does economic growth stimulate energy consumption? The role of human capital and R&D expenditures in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    6. Shakouri, Hamed & Pandey, Shikhar & Rahmatian, Farnoosh & Paaso, Esa A., 2023. "Does the increased electricity consumption (provided by capacity expansion and/or reliability improvement) cause economic growth?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    7. Li, Yi & Liu, Tianya & Xu, Jinpeng, 2023. "Analyzing the economic, social, and technological determinants of renewable and nonrenewable electricity production in China: Findings from time series models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    8. Li, Jianglong & Xie, Chunping & Long, Houyin, 2019. "The roles of inter-fuel substitution and inter-market contagion in driving energy prices: evidences from China’s coal market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102540, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Atems, Bebonchu & Mette, Jehu & Lin, Guoyu & Madraki, Golshan, 2023. "Estimating and forecasting the impact of nonrenewable energy prices on US renewable energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    10. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Zakaria, Muhammad & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2018. "The energy consumption and economic growth nexus in top ten energy-consuming countries: Fresh evidence from using the quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 282-301.
    11. Sadorsky, Perry, 2009. "Renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions and oil prices in the G7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 456-462, May.
    12. Lin, Boqiang & Song, Yijie, 2024. "Coal price shocks and economic growth: A province-level study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    13. Cheong, Tsun Se & Wu, Yanrui, 2018. "Convergence and transitional dynamics of China's industrial output: A county-level study using a new framework of distribution dynamics analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 125-138.
    14. Lin, Boqiang & Liu, Zhiwei, 2024. "Assessment of China's flexible power investment value in the emission trading system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    15. Wang, Tiantian & Wu, Fei & Dickinson, David & Zhao, Wanli, 2024. "Energy price bubbles and extreme price movements: Evidence from China's coal market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    16. Lin, Boqiang & Xie, Yongjing, 2024. "The role of venture capital in determining the total factor productivity of renewable energy enterprises: In the context of government subsidy reduction," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    17. Boqiang Lin & Tianxu Lan, 2024. "The time‐varying volatility spillover effects between China's coal and metal market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(5), pages 699-719, May.
    18. Zheng, Xuemei & Wu, Chengkuan & He, Shijun, 2021. "Impacts of China's differential electricity pricing on the productivity of energy-intensive industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    19. Liu, Zhenhua & Chen, Shumin & Zhong, Hongyu & Ding, Zhihua, 2024. "Coal price shocks, investor sentiment, and stock market returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    20. Cui, Wencong & Li, Jianyi & Xu, Wangtu & Güneralp, Burak, 2021. "Industrial electricity consumption and economic growth: A spatio-temporal analysis across prefecture-level cities in China from 1999 to 2014," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    21. Huntington, Hillard & Liddle, Brantley, 2022. "How energy prices shape OECD economic growth: Panel evidence from multiple decades," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    22. Ren, Xiaohang & Tong, Ziwei & Sun, Xianming & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "Dynamic impacts of energy consumption on economic growth in China: Evidence from a non-parametric panel data model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    23. Xu, Guangyue & Yang, Hualiu & Schwarz, Peter, 2022. "A strengthened relationship between electricity and economic growth in China: An empirical study with a structural equation model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    24. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    25. Guo, Jin & Zheng, Xinye & Chen, Zhan-Ming, 2016. "How does coal price drive up inflation? Reexamining the relationship between coal price and general price level in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 265-276.
    26. Li, Jianglong & Xie, Chunping & Long, Houyin, 2019. "The roles of inter-fuel substitution and inter-market contagion in driving energy prices: Evidences from China’s coal market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    27. Li, Hui & Wu, Zixuan & Yuan, Xing & Yang, Yixuan & He, Xiaoqiang & Duan, Huiming, 2022. "The research on modeling and application of dynamic grey forecasting model based on energy price-energy consumption-economic growth," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    28. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sarwar, Suleman & Chen, Wei & Malik, Muhammad Nasir, 2017. "Dynamics of electricity consumption, oil price and economic growth: Global perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 256-270.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gong, Xu & Liu, Yun & Wang, Xiong, 2021. "Dynamic volatility spillovers across oil and natural gas futures markets based on a time-varying spillover method," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Lin, Boqiang & Song, Yijie, 2024. "Coal price shocks and economic growth: A province-level study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    3. Tambari, Ishaya & Failler, Pierre & Jaffry, Shabbar, 2024. "Understanding the Interplay: Oil price and renewable energy investment in Africa's net oil importing and net oil exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Sibande, Xolani & Demirer, Riza & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan, 2023. "On the pricing effects of bitcoin mining in the fossil fuel market: The case of coal," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    5. Wang, Tiantian & Wu, Fei & Dickinson, David & Zhao, Wanli, 2024. "Energy price bubbles and extreme price movements: Evidence from China's coal market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Nan, Yu & Sun, Renjin & Zhen, Zhao & Fangjing, Chu, 2022. "Measurement of international crude oil price cyclical fluctuations and correlation with the world economic cyclical changes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    7. Wang, Tiantian & Wu, Fei & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "Energy market reforms in China and the time-varying connectedness of domestic and international markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    8. Gong, Xu & Jin, Yujing & Liu, Tangyong, 2023. "Analyzing pure contagion between crude oil and agricultural futures markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    9. Liu, Zhenhua & Chen, Shumin & Zhong, Hongyu & Ding, Zhihua, 2024. "Coal price shocks, investor sentiment, and stock market returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    10. Boqiang Lin & Tianxu Lan, 2024. "The time‐varying volatility spillover effects between China's coal and metal market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(5), pages 699-719, May.
    11. Jingye Lyu & Chong Li & Wenwen Zhou & Jinsuo Zhang, 2024. "Sensitivity Analysis of Factors Influencing Coal Prices in China," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-27, December.
    12. Rahman, Zia Ur & Chen, Yufeng & Ullah, Assad, 2025. "Assessment of the causal links between energy, technologies, and economic growth in China: An application of wavelet coherence and hybrid quantile causality approaches," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 377(PA).
    13. Kayani, Umar Nawaz & Hassan, M. Kabir & Moussa, Faten & Hossain, Gazi Farid, 2023. "Oil in crisis: What can we learn," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    14. Marques, António Cardoso & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Neves, Sónia Almeida, 2018. "Ordinary and Special Regimes of electricity generation in Spain: How they interact with economic activity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1226-1240.
    15. Solomon P. Nathaniel & Festus V. Bekun, 2020. "Electricity Consumption, Urbanization and Economic Growth in Nigeria: New Insights from Combined Cointegration amidst Structural Breaks," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/013, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    16. Magazzino, Cosimo & Drago, Carlo & Schneider, Nicolas, 2023. "Evidence of supply security and sustainability challenges in Nigeria’s power sector," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    17. Kang, Sang Hoon & Islam, Faridul & Kumar Tiwari, Aviral, 2019. "The dynamic relationships among CO2 emissions, renewable and non-renewable energy sources, and economic growth in India: Evidence from time-varying Bayesian VAR model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 90-101.
    18. Zafar, Muhammad Wasif & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hou, Fujun & Sinha, Avik, 2018. "¬¬¬¬¬¬From Nonrenewable to Renewable Energy and Its Impact on Economic Growth: Silver Line of Research & Development Expenditures in APEC Countries," MPRA Paper 90611, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Dec 2018.
    19. Rath, Badri Narayan & Akram, Vaseem & Bal, Debi Prasad & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2019. "Do fossil fuel and renewable energy consumption affect total factor productivity growth? Evidence from cross-country data with policy insights," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 186-199.
    20. Ding, Lili & Zhao, Zhongchao & Han, Meng, 2021. "Probability density forecasts for steam coal prices in China: The role of high-frequency factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:195:y:2024:i:c:s0301421524004208. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.