IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v179y2023ics0301421523002112.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy, power, and greenhouse gas emissions for future transition scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Battisti, L.

Abstract

Under the pressure for new policy and socio-ecological transformation, this work evaluates the future (2020–2050) GHG emissions, considering a likely range of electric energy growth scenarios in the world’s current energy system. An integrated model accounts for different penetration strategies of renewable energies, technological advancements, and variations in the fuel/renewables mix. Data of actual renewable/fossil share, GHG emission factors, and technology indicators, as plant load factors, were assumed from the Italian scenario. The study reveals that regardless of the current electric energy demand for the future, the transition to a massive penetration share of renewables as unique GHG reduction strategy will only partially abate the level of GHGs, and the zero-emission targets are definitely not feasible. A relevant result is the evaluation of future green power capacity, to satisfy the worldwide electrical energy demand. The scenarios foresee an unprecedented rate of the installation of generation plants from renewable sources, accompanied by a steep year-by-year variation of the required power capacity in operation. This prediction, in the temporal front chosen for this survey, poses the problem of the technological readiness of many conversion technologies, which makes it difficult to guarantee that renewable penetration programs can be matched with their technical feasibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Battisti, L., 2023. "Energy, power, and greenhouse gas emissions for future transition scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:179:y:2023:i:c:s0301421523002112
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113626
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421523002112
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113626?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ang, B. W., 2004. "Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:: which is the preferred method?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1131-1139, June.
    2. Gabriel Constantino de Lima & Andre Luiz Lopes Toledo & Leonidas Bourikas, 2021. "The Role of National Energy Policies and Life Cycle Emissions of PV Systems in Reducing Global Net Emissions of Greenhouse Gases," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, February.
    3. El-Fadel, M. & Chedid, R. & Zeinati, M. & Hmaidan, W., 2003. "Mitigating energy-related GHG emissions through renewable energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1257-1276.
    4. Lenzen, Manfred & Munksgaard, Jesper, 2002. "Energy and CO2 life-cycle analyses of wind turbines—review and applications," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 339-362.
    5. Xu, X.Y. & Ang, B.W., 2014. "Multilevel index decomposition analysis: Approaches and application," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 375-382.
    6. Kabir, Md Ruhul & Rooke, Braden & Dassanayake, G.D. Malinga & Fleck, Brian A., 2012. "Comparative life cycle energy, emission, and economic analysis of 100 kW nameplate wind power generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 133-141.
    7. Hondo, Hiroki, 2005. "Life cycle GHG emission analysis of power generation systems: Japanese case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2042-2056.
    8. Gagnon, Luc & Belanger, Camille & Uchiyama, Yohji, 2002. "Life-cycle assessment of electricity generation options: The status of research in year 2001," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(14), pages 1267-1278, November.
    9. Bonou, Alexandra & Laurent, Alexis & Olsen, Stig I., 2016. "Life cycle assessment of onshore and offshore wind energy-from theory to application," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 327-337.
    10. Varun & Bhat, I.K. & Prakash, Ravi, 2009. "LCA of renewable energy for electricity generation systems--A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 1067-1073, June.
    11. Nishimura, A. & Hayashi, Y. & Tanaka, K. & Hirota, M. & Kato, S. & Ito, M. & Araki, K. & Hu, E.J., 2010. "Life cycle assessment and evaluation of energy payback time on high-concentration photovoltaic power generation system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(9), pages 2797-2807, September.
    12. Peng, Jinqing & Lu, Lin & Yang, Hongxing, 2013. "Review on life cycle assessment of energy payback and greenhouse gas emission of solar photovoltaic systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 255-274.
    13. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    14. Helton, J.C. & Johnson, J.D. & Sallaberry, C.J. & Storlie, C.B., 2006. "Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1175-1209.
    15. Zhang, Ming & Liu, Xiao & Wang, Wenwen & Zhou, Min, 2013. "Decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions from electricity generation in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 159-165.
    16. Wang, Yuxuan & Sun, Tianye, 2012. "Life cycle assessment of CO2 emissions from wind power plants: Methodology and case studies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 30-36.
    17. Clancy, J.M. & Gaffney, F. & Deane, J.P. & Curtis, J. & Ó Gallachóir, B.P., 2015. "Fossil fuel and CO2 emissions savings on a high renewable electricity system – A single year case study for Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 151-164.
    18. Xu, X.Y. & Ang, B.W., 2013. "Index decomposition analysis applied to CO2 emission studies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 313-329.
    19. Goh, Tian & Ang, B.W., 2018. "Quantifying CO2 emission reductions from renewables and nuclear energy – Some paradoxes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 651-662.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dipak Kumar Mandal & Sharmistha Bose & Nirmalendu Biswas & Nirmal K. Manna & Erdem Cuce & Ali Cemal Benim, 2024. "Solar Chimney Power Plants for Sustainable Air Quality Management Integrating Photocatalysis and Particulate Filtration: A Comprehensive Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-31, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nugent, Daniel & Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2014. "Assessing the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions from solar PV and wind energy: A critical meta-survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 229-244.
    2. Turconi, Roberto & Boldrin, Alessio & Astrup, Thomas, 2013. "Life cycle assessment (LCA) of electricity generation technologies: Overview, comparability and limitations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 555-565.
    3. Goh, Tian & Ang, B.W., 2018. "Quantifying CO2 emission reductions from renewables and nuclear energy – Some paradoxes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 651-662.
    4. Niklas Andersen & Ola Eriksson & Karl Hillman & Marita Wallhagen, 2016. "Wind Turbines’ End-of-Life: Quantification and Characterisation of Future Waste Materials on a National Level," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-24, November.
    5. Zhang, Xiaoyue & Huang, Guohe & Liu, Lirong & Li, Kailong, 2022. "Development of a stochastic multistage lifecycle programming model for electric power system planning – A case study for the Province of Saskatchewan, Canada," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. Sarah Wettstein & Karen Muir & Deborah Scharfy & Matthias Stucki, 2017. "The Environmental Mitigation Potential of Photovoltaic-Powered Irrigation in the Production of South African Maize," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-20, September.
    7. Ang, B.W. & Goh, Tian, 2019. "Index decomposition analysis for comparing emission scenarios: Applications and challenges," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 74-87.
    8. Marimuthu, C. & Kirubakaran, V., 2013. "Carbon pay back period for solar and wind energy project installed in India: A critical review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 80-90.
    9. Song, Cuihong & Gardner, Kevin H. & Klein, Sharon J.W. & Souza, Simone Pereira & Mo, Weiwei, 2018. "Cradle-to-grave greenhouse gas emissions from dams in the United States of America," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 945-956.
    10. Evans, Annette & Strezov, Vladimir & Evans, Tim J., 2009. "Assessment of sustainability indicators for renewable energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 1082-1088, June.
    11. Nian, Victor & Liu, Yang & Zhong, Sheng, 2019. "Life cycle cost-benefit analysis of offshore wind energy under the climatic conditions in Southeast Asia – Setting the bottom-line for deployment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 1003-1014.
    12. Yang, Jin & Chen, Bin, 2013. "Integrated evaluation of embodied energy, greenhouse gas emission and economic performance of a typical wind farm in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 559-568.
    13. Amponsah, Nana Yaw & Troldborg, Mads & Kington, Bethany & Aalders, Inge & Hough, Rupert Lloyd, 2014. "Greenhouse gas emissions from renewable energy sources: A review of lifecycle considerations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 461-475.
    14. Mendecka, Barbara & Lombardi, Lidia, 2019. "Life cycle environmental impacts of wind energy technologies: A review of simplified models and harmonization of the results," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 462-480.
    15. Xuankai Deng & Yanhua Yu & Yanfang Liu, 2015. "Effect of Construction Land Expansion on Energy-Related Carbon Emissions: Empirical Analysis of China and Its Provinces from 2001 to 2011," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-22, June.
    16. Ludin, Norasikin Ahmad & Mustafa, Nur Ifthitah & Hanafiah, Marlia M. & Ibrahim, Mohd Adib & Asri Mat Teridi, Mohd & Sepeai, Suhaila & Zaharim, Azami & Sopian, Kamaruzzaman, 2018. "Prospects of life cycle assessment of renewable energy from solar photovoltaic technologies: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 11-28.
    17. Isik, Mine & Ari, Izzet & Sarica, Kemal, 2021. "Challenges in the CO2 emissions of the Turkish power sector: Evidence from a two-level decomposition approach," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    18. Harmsen, Robert & Crijns-Graus, Wina, 2021. "Unhiding the role of CHP in power & heat sector decomposition analyses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    19. Kubiszewski, Ida & Cleveland, Cutler J. & Endres, Peter K., 2010. "Meta-analysis of net energy return for wind power systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 218-225.
    20. Goh, Tian & Ang, B.W. & Xu, X.Y., 2018. "Quantifying drivers of CO2 emissions from electricity generation – Current practices and future extensions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 1191-1204.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:179:y:2023:i:c:s0301421523002112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.