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Road to zero or road to nowhere? Disrupting transport and energy in a zero carbon world

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  • Brand, Christian
  • Anable, Jillian
  • Ketsopoulou, Ioanna
  • Watson, Jim

Abstract

The phasing out of conventional fossil fuel road vehicles is one of a number of potentially disruptive transport and energy policies. The implied technical substitution alone may be too slow to contribute meaningfully to meeting ‘net zero’ carbon reduction targets. This paper uses established modelling techniques and prospective scenario analyses in a UK case study to investigate what the impacts might be if we were more ambitious, how much disruption is needed to meet climate goals, the role of lifestyle and social change, and the potential implications for key actors in transport energy systems. Existing policies may neither hit carbon reduction targets nor make the early gains needed for a Paris-compliant trajectory. Deeper and earlier reductions in carbon and air quality emissions can be achieved by more ambitious but largely non-disruptive change of a 2030 phase out that includes (plug-in) hybrids. The earlier phase outs combined with lower demand for mobility and car ownership would make significant contributions to an emissions pathway that is both Paris compliant and meets urban air quality goals. Some disruption for technology providers, business and government can be expected in the more ambitious cases. The paper concludes by discussing key policy implications and recommendations.

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  • Brand, Christian & Anable, Jillian & Ketsopoulou, Ioanna & Watson, Jim, 2020. "Road to zero or road to nowhere? Disrupting transport and energy in a zero carbon world," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:139:y:2020:i:c:s0301421520300914
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111334
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    1. Donald Ukpanyang & Julio Terrados-Cepeda, 2022. "Decarbonizing Vehicle Transportation with Hydrogen from Biomass Gasification: An Assessment in the Nigerian Urban Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Ramachandran Kannan & Evangelos Panos & Stefan Hirschberg & Tom Kober, 2022. "A net‐zero Swiss energy system by 2050: Technological and policy options for the transition of the transportation sector," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(3-4), September.
    3. Logan, Kathryn G. & Nelson, John D. & Brand, Christian & Hastings, Astley, 2021. "Phasing in electric vehicles: Does policy focusing on operating emission achieve net zero emissions reduction objectives?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 100-114.
    4. Talbot, Joseph & Lucas-Smith, Martin & Speakman, Andrew & Streb, Megan & Nuttall, Simon & Carlino, Dustin & Johansson, Patrick & Sheehan, Nathanael & Groot, Nikée & Lovelace, Robin, 2021. "Active Travel Oriented Development: Assessing the suitability of sites for new homes," OSF Preprints 7fuq5, Center for Open Science.
    5. Marzena Kramarz & Katarzyna Dohn & Edyta Przybylska & Lilla Knop, 2020. "Scenarios for the Development of Multimodal Transport in the TRITIA Cross-Border Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-41, August.
    6. Greg Marsden & Jillian Anable, 2021. "Behind the Targets? The Case for Coherence in a Multi-Scalar Approach to Carbon Action Plans in the Transport Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-18, June.
    7. Philips, Ian & Anable, Jillian & Chatterton, Tim, 2022. "E-bikes and their capability to reduce car CO2 emissions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 11-23.
    8. Axsen, Jonn & Wolinetz, Michael, 2021. "Taxes, tolls and ZEV zones for climate: Synthesizing insights on effectiveness, efficiency, equity, acceptability and implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    9. Marsden, Greg & Docherty, Iain, 2021. "Mega-disruptions and policy change: Lessons from the mobility sector in response to the Covid-19 pandemic in the UK," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 86-97.
    10. Philips, Ian & Brown, Llinos & Cass, Noel, 2024. "E-bike use and ownership in the Lake District National-Park UK," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    11. Rosal, Ignacio del, 2022. "European dieselization: Policy insights from EU car trade," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 181-194.
    12. Felder, F.A. & Kumar, P., 2021. "A review of existing deep decarbonization models and their potential in policymaking," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    13. Plötz, Patrick & Wachsmuth, Jakob & Sprei, Frances & Gnann, Till & Speth, Daniel & Neuner, Felix & Link, Steffen, 2023. "Greenhouse gas emission budgets and policies for zero-carbon road transport in Europe," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S02/2023, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    14. Lisa Winkler & Drew Pearce & Jenny Nelson & Oytun Babacan, 2023. "The effect of sustainable mobility transition policies on cumulative urban transport emissions and energy demand," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    15. McGarry, Connor & Dixon, James & Flower, Jack & Bukhsh, Waqquas & Brand, Christian & Bell, Keith & Galloway, Stuart, 2024. "Electrified heat and transport: Energy demand futures, their impacts on power networks and what it means for system flexibility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    16. Jo-Ann Pattinson & Gillian Harrison & Caroline Mullen & Simon Shepherd, 2022. "Combining Tradable Credit Schemes with a New Form of Road Pricing: Producing Liveable Cities and Meeting Decarbonisation Goals," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-22, July.

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