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The case for a tortoise approach to US nuclear research and development

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  • Ford, Michael J.
  • Schrag, Daniel P.

Abstract

The future role of nuclear power in decarbonization of the US electricity grid is uncertain. Large light water plants have proven challenging to deploy, and the existing nuclear fleet is under market pressure. A new cadre of developers, supported by the US Department of Energy, is pressing for an accelerated path to deployment of new nuclear designs to address the climate challenge and maintain the nuclear industrial base. However, an examination of market dynamics and the ongoing pace of low carbon technology transition portend significant challenges for these vendors. Our analysis indicates that the current advanced reactor research and development paradigm is unlikely to yield multiple technology options in a timeframe that matters and argues for a slower and steadier “tortoise” approach. Using an optimization model we demonstrate that a slower, structured approach across a broad portfolio of technologies will better align nuclear development with a possible mid-century market opening. By allowing additional development time, building multiple demonstration plants, and operating these new designs for extended periods, it is more likely that there will be competitive technologies that can meet the future economic and technical requirements for widespread nuclear deployment should the technology be required in decarbonization efforts.

Suggested Citation

  • Ford, Michael J. & Schrag, Daniel P., 2019. "The case for a tortoise approach to US nuclear research and development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:135:y:2019:i:c:s0301421519306007
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lovering, Jessica R. & Yip, Arthur & Nordhaus, Ted, 2016. "Historical construction costs of global nuclear power reactors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 371-382.
    2. Fernandes, Bartolomeu & Cunha, Jorge & Ferreira, Paula, 2011. "The use of real options approach in energy sector investments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4491-4497.
    3. Rubin, Edward S. & Azevedo, Inês M.L. & Jaramillo, Paulina & Yeh, Sonia, 2015. "A review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 198-218.
    4. Michael J. Ford & Daniel P. Schrag, 2018. "A tortoise approach for US nuclear research and development," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(10), pages 810-812, October.
    5. Ford, Michael J. & Abdulla, Ahmed & Morgan, M. Granger & Victor, David G., 2017. "Expert assessments of the state of U.S. advanced fission innovation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 194-200.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gangyang, Zheng & Xianke, Peng & Xiaozhen, Li & Yexi, Kang & Xiangeng, Zhao, 2021. "Research on the standardization strategy of China's nuclear industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).

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