IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v78y2019icp91-108.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pricing dynamics of natural gas futures

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Bingxin

Abstract

Growth in the natural gas market is pronounced since the shale gas boom. Natural gas has become increasingly important in international trade, especially after the recent financialization in commodity markets. Motivated by the high volatility and time-varying nature in natural gas futures prices, understanding the pricing dynamics of natural gas is essential for risk management. In this paper, we adopt a class of computationally efficient discrete-time pricing models and construct futures dynamics by differentiating three subsamples which represent time-varying market conditions. We find strong evidence of positive jumps in the natural gas market and higher jump intensity in a more volatile period. The dynamic jump intensity model has a better model fit both in-sample and out-of-sample, suggesting time-varying jumps are necessary for pricing natural gas derivatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Bingxin, 2019. "Pricing dynamics of natural gas futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 91-108.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:78:y:2019:i:c:p:91-108
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.10.024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988318304262
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.10.024?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2009. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4423-4461, November.
    2. Ornthanalai, Chayawat, 2014. "Lévy jump risk: Evidence from options and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 69-90.
    3. Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
    4. Jin‐Chuan Duan & Peter Ritchken & Zhiqiang Sun, 2006. "Approximating Garch‐Jump Models, Jump‐Diffusion Processes, And Option Pricing," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 21-52, January.
    5. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Ornthanalai, Chayawat & Wang, Yintian, 2008. "Option valuation with long-run and short-run volatility components," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 272-297, December.
    6. Mason, Charles F. & A. Wilmot, Neil, 2014. "Jump processes in natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 69-79.
    7. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2015. "A unit root model for trending time-series energy variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 391-402.
    8. Sepideh Dolatabadi & Paresh Kumar Narayan & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Ke Xu, 2018. "Economic significance of commodity return forecasts from the fractionally cointegrated VAR model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 219-242, February.
    9. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2015. "Does data frequency matter for the impact of forward premium on spot exchange rate?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 45-53.
    10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    11. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:755-793 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Jaime Casassus & Pierre Collin‐Dufresne, 2005. "Stochastic Convenience Yield Implied from Commodity Futures and Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2283-2331, October.
    13. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1367-1404 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    15. Stephen P.A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 2008. "What Drives Natural Gas Prices?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 29(2), pages 45-60, April.
    16. Acharya, Viral V. & Lochstoer, Lars A. & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2013. "Limits to arbitrage and hedging: Evidence from commodity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 441-465.
    17. Mark Broadie & Mikhail Chernov & Michael Johannes, 2007. "Model Specification and Risk Premia: Evidence from Futures Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1453-1490, June.
    18. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    19. Hong, Harrison & Yogo, Motohiro, 2012. "What does futures market interest tell us about the macroeconomy and asset prices?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 473-490.
    20. Pedro Santa-Clara & Shu Yan, 2010. "Crashes, Volatility, and the Equity Premium: Lessons from S&P 500 Options," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 435-451, May.
    21. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    22. David S. Bates, 2006. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Latent Affine Processes," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 909-965.
    23. Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-976, July.
    24. Litzenberger, Robert H & Rabinowitz, Nir, 1995. "Backwardation in Oil Futures Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1517-1545, December.
    25. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2018. "An analysis of time-varying commodity market price discovery," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 122-133.
    26. Bjørn Eraker & Michael Johannes & Nicholas Polson, 2003. "The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1269-1300, June.
    27. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chai, Jian & Zhang, Xiaokong & Lu, Quanying & Zhang, Xuejun & Wang, Yabo, 2021. "Research on imbalance between supply and demand in China's natural gas market under the double-track price system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    2. Kim, Min Jae & Kim, Tong Seop & Flores, Robert J. & Brouwer, Jack, 2020. "Neural-network-based optimization for economic dispatch of combined heat and power systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    3. Asadi, Mehrad & Roudari, Soheil & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2023. "Scrutinizing commodity markets by quantile spillovers: A case study of the Australian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    4. Natalia Duarte Forero & Donovan Arango Barrios & Jorge Duarte Forero, 2019. "Overview of Potential Use of Hydroxyl and Hydrogen as an Alternative Fuel in Colombia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(6), pages 525-534.
    5. Wilshusen, Peter R., 2019. "Environmental governance in motion: Practices of assemblage and the political performativity of economistic conservation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Oleksandr Castello & Marina Resta, 2023. "A Machine-Learning-Based Approach for Natural Gas Futures Curve Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-22, June.
    7. Lyons, Glenn, 2020. "Walking as a service – Does it have legs?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 271-284.
    8. Derick David Quintino & Heloisa Lee Burnquist & Paulo Jorge Silveira Ferreira, 2021. "Carbon Emissions and Brazilian Ethanol Prices: Are They Correlated? An Econophysics Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Byun, Suk Joon & Jeon, Byoung Hyun & Min, Byungsun & Yoon, Sun-Joong, 2015. "The role of the variance premium in Jump-GARCH option pricing models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 38-56.
    2. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Ornthanalai, Chayawat, 2012. "Dynamic jump intensities and risk premiums: Evidence from S&P500 returns and options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 447-472.
    3. Zhang, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Qian & Wang, Zerong & Wang, Qi, 2024. "Option valuation via nonaffine dynamics with realized volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Bingxin Li, 2020. "Option-implied filtering: evidence from the GARCH option pricing model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1037-1057, April.
    5. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Ornthanalai, Chayawat & Wang, Yintian, 2008. "Option valuation with long-run and short-run volatility components," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 272-297, December.
    6. Yu-Hua Zeng & Shou-Lei Wang & Yu-Fei Yang, 2014. "Calibration of the Volatility in Option Pricing Using the Total Variation Regularization," Journal of Applied Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2014, pages 1-9, March.
    7. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Lopez, Matias & Naranjo, Lorenzo, 2017. "A multifactor stochastic volatility model of commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 182-201.
    8. Dario Alitab & Giacomo Bormetti & Fulvio Corsi & Adam A. Majewski, 2019. "A realized volatility approach to option pricing with continuous and jump variance components," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 42(2), pages 639-664, December.
    9. Carverhill, Andrew & Luo, Dan, 2023. "A Bayesian analysis of time-varying jump risk in S&P 500 returns and options," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Chayawat Ornthanalai, 2012. "GARCH Option Valuation: Theory and Evidence," CREATES Research Papers 2012-50, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    11. Shackleton, Mark B. & Taylor, Stephen J. & Yu, Peng, 2010. "A multi-horizon comparison of density forecasts for the S&P 500 using index returns and option prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2678-2693, November.
    12. Majewski, Adam A. & Bormetti, Giacomo & Corsi, Fulvio, 2015. "Smile from the past: A general option pricing framework with multiple volatility and leverage components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 521-531.
    13. Neumann, Maximilian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2016. "Jump and variance risk premia in the S&P 500," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 72-83.
    14. Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2013. "The dynamics of commodity prices," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 527-542, March.
    15. Arismendi, Juan C. & Back, Janis & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Paschke, Raphael & Rudolf, Markus, 2016. "Seasonal Stochastic Volatility: Implications for the pricing of commodity options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 53-65.
    16. Gurdip Bakshi & Charles Cao & Zhaodong (Ken) Zhong, 2021. "Assessing models of individual equity option prices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 1-28, July.
    17. Kaeck, Andreas & Rodrigues, Paulo & Seeger, Norman J., 2018. "Model Complexity and Out-of-Sample Performance: Evidence from S&P 500 Index Returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-29.
    18. Peter Christoffersen & Bruno Feunou & Yoontae Jeon & Chayawat Ornthanalai, 2016. "Time-Varying Crash Risk: The Role of Stock Market Liquidity," Staff Working Papers 16-35, Bank of Canada.
    19. Diego Amaya & Jean-François Bégin & Geneviève Gauthier, 2022. "The Informational Content of High-Frequency Option Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 2166-2201, March.
    20. Adam Aleksander Majewski & Giacomo Bormetti & Fulvio Corsi, 2014. "Smile from the Past: A general option pricing framework with multiple volatility and leverage components," Papers 1404.3555, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural gas; Futures; Discrete-time model; Jump;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:78:y:2019:i:c:p:91-108. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.