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Time-Varying Crash Risk: The Role of Stock Market Liquidity

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  • Peter Christoffersen
  • Bruno Feunou
  • Yoontae Jeon
  • Chayawat Ornthanalai

Abstract

We estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability for the S&P 500 index and find that market illiquidity dominates other factors in explaining the stock market crash risk. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly on return variance once we include market illiquidity as an economic variable in the model. This finding suggests that the relationship between variance and jump risk found in the literature is largely due to their common exposure to market liquidity risk. Our study highlights the importance of equity market frictions in index return dynamics and explains why prior studies find that crash risk increases with market uncertainty level.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Christoffersen & Bruno Feunou & Yoontae Jeon & Chayawat Ornthanalai, 2016. "Time-Varying Crash Risk: The Role of Stock Market Liquidity," Staff Working Papers 16-35, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:16-35
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Branger, Nicole & Rodrigues, Paulo & Schlag, Christian, 2017. "Level and slope of volatility smiles in Long-Run Risk Models," SAFE Working Paper Series 186, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    2. Jonas Rothfuss & Fabio Ferreira & Simon Walther & Maxim Ulrich, 2019. "Conditional Density Estimation with Neural Networks: Best Practices and Benchmarks," Papers 1903.00954, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.
    3. Branger, Nicole & Rodrigues, Paulo & Schlag, Christian, 2018. "Level and slope of volatility smiles in long-run risk models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 95-122.
    4. Zhihong Jian & Zhican Zhu & Jie Zhou & Shuai Wu, 2018. "The Magnet Effect of Circuit Breakers: A role of price jumps and market liquidity," Departmental Working Papers 2018-01, The University of Winnipeg, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Pricing; Econometric and statistical methods; Financial stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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