IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v62y2017icp419-427.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the speed of adjustment to target levels: The case of energy prices

Author

Listed:
  • Narayan, Seema
  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a model that estimates the speed of energy price adjustment to its target level. We also explain the source of price adjustment. Moreover, we extract energy price bubbles and show that bubbles help explain price adjustment. Since ours is the first paper that develops an energy price adjustment model and links it to bubbles, several avenues for future research have emerged from our analysis. The first is to provide a theoretical framework for the bubbles and price adjustment mechanism. The second direction of research will be to continue the search for other potential determinants of price adjustment.

Suggested Citation

  • Narayan, Seema & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2017. "Estimating the speed of adjustment to target levels: The case of energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 419-427.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:62:y:2017:i:c:p:419-427
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.08.016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014098831630216X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.08.016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    2. Renou-Maissant, Patricia, 2012. "Toward the integration of European natural gas markets:A time-varying approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 779-790.
    3. Mark Bertus & Bryan Stanhouse, 2001. "Rational speculative bubbles in the gold futures market: An application of dynamic factor analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-108, January.
    4. Mishra, Vinod & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Convergence in energy consumption per capita among ASEAN countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 180-185.
    5. Patricia Renou-Maissant, 2012. "Toward the Integration of European Natural Gas Markets: A Time-Varying Approach," Post-Print hal-02562543, HAL.
    6. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2013. "An analysis of commodity markets: What gain for investors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3878-3889.
    7. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2015. "Applied econometrics and implications for energy economics research," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 351-358.
    8. Marlin King & Milan Cuc, 1996. "Price Convergence in North American Natural Gas Spot Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 17-42.
    9. Zavaleta, Armando & Walls, W.D. & Rusco, Frank W., 2015. "Refining for export and the convergence of petroleum product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 206-214.
    10. Axel Dreher & Tim Krieger, 2010. "Diesel price convergence and mineral oil taxation in Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(15), pages 1955-1961.
    11. Patricia Renou-Maissant, 2012. "Toward the integration of European natural gasmarkets: A time-varying approach," Post-Print halshs-00771055, HAL.
    12. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2013. "On the dynamics of gasoline market integration in the United States: Evidence from a pair-wise approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 503-510.
    13. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Ryu, Deockhyun, 2015. "Measuring the speed of convergence of stock prices: A nonparametric and nonlinear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 227-241.
    14. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    15. Raymond Li & Roselyne Joyeux & Ronald D. Ripple, 2010. "International Steam Coal Market Integration," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 181-202.
    16. Ma, Hengyun & Oxley, Les & Gibson, John, 2009. "Gradual reforms and the emergence of energy market in China: Evidence from tests for convergence of energy prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4834-4850, November.
    17. Lanza, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo & Giovannini, Massimo, 2005. "Modeling and forecasting cointegrated relationships among heavy oil and product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 831-848, November.
    18. Apostolos Serletis, 2007. "A Cointegration Analysis of Petroleum Futures Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 5, pages 46-54, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    19. Anne Neumann & Boriss Siliverstovs & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2006. "Convergence of European spot market prices for natural gas? A real-time analysis of market integration using the Kalman Filter," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 727-732.
    20. Luciano Gutierrez, 2013. "Speculative bubbles in agricultural commodity markets-super- †," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 40(2), pages 217-238, March.
    21. Akhmedjonov, Alisher & Lau, Chi Keung, 2012. "Do energy prices converge across Russian regions?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1623-1631.
    22. Suvankulov, Farrukh & Lau, Marco Chi Keung & Ogucu, Fatma, 2012. "Price regulation and relative price convergence: Evidence from the retail gasoline market in Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 325-334.
    23. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    24. Bacon, Robert W., 1991. "Rockets and feathers: the asymmetric speed of adjustment of UK retail gasoline prices to cost changes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 211-218, July.
    25. Cox, Charles C, 1976. "Futures Trading and Market Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1215-1237, December.
    26. Apergis, Nicholas & Lau, Marco Chi Keung, 2015. "Structural breaks and electricity prices: Further evidence on the role of climate policy uncertainties in the Australian electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 176-182.
    27. Kathleen Arano & Marieta Velikova, 2009. "Price Convergence in Natural Gas Markets: City-Gate and Residential Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 129-154.
    28. Zhu, Huiming & Guo, Yawei & You, Wanhai & Xu, Yaqin, 2016. "The heterogeneity dependence between crude oil price changes and industry stock market returns in China: Evidence from a quantile regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 30-41.
    29. Apergis, Nicholas & Fontini, Fulvio & Inchauspe, Julian, 2017. "Integration of regional electricity markets in Australia: A price convergence assessment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 411-418.
    30. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 441-468, December.
    31. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach, 2016. "Asset price bubbles and economic welfare," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 139-148.
    32. Zachmann, Georg, 2008. "Electricity wholesale market prices in Europe: Convergence?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1659-1671, July.
    33. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2014. "Bubbles in food commodity markets: Four decades of evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 129-155.
    34. Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Hu, Te-Chung & Hu, Hui-Ting, 2015. "Dynamic Asian stock market convergence: Evidence from dynamic cointegration analysis among China and ASEAN-5," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 84-98.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Sanin-Restrepo, Sebastian, 2018. "The maple bubble: A history of migration among Canadian provinces," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 57-71.
    2. Apergis, Nicholas & Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E., 2017. "Introduction: Symposium on Energy Sector Convergence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 335-337.
    3. Kumar, Satish, 2022. "Speed of adjustment in energy and metal prices: Evidence from India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Khan, Khalid & Su, Chi Wei & Khurshid, Adnan, 2022. "Do booms and busts identify bubbles in energy prices?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Zhao, Zhao & Wen, Huwei & Li, Ke, 2021. "Identifying bubbles and the contagion effect between oil and stock markets: New evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 780-788.
    6. Christos Floros & Georgios Galyfianakis, 2020. "Bubbles in Crude Oil and Commodity Energy Index: New Evidence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-11, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kumar, Satish, 2022. "Speed of adjustment in energy and metal prices: Evidence from India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. Dukhanina, Ekaterina & Massol, Olivier & Lévêque, François, 2019. "Policy measures targeting a more integrated gas market: Impact of a merger of two trading zones on prices and arbitrage activity in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 583-593.
    3. Chiappini, Raphaël & Jégourel, Yves & Raymond, Paul, 2019. "Towards a worldwide integrated market? New evidence on the dynamics of U.S., European and Asian natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 545-565.
    4. Ren, Xiaohang & Lu, Zudi & Cheng, Cheng & Shi, Yukun & Shen, Jian, 2019. "On dynamic linkages of the state natural gas markets in the USA: Evidence from an empirical spatio-temporal network quantile analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 234-252.
    5. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Polo, Michele, 2019. "Convergence of European natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 793-811.
    6. Mark J. Holmes & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2022. "Convergence in retail gasoline prices: insights from Canadian cities," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 68(1), pages 207-228, February.
    7. Batten, Jonathan A. & Brzeszczynski, Janusz & Ciner, Cetin & Lau, Marco C.K. & Lucey, Brian & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2019. "Price and volatility spillovers across the international steam coal market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 119-138.
    8. Cassetta, Ernesto & Nava, Consuelo R. & Zoia, Maria Grazia, 2022. "A three-step procedure to investigate the convergence of electricity and natural gas prices in the European Union," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    9. Oladosu, Gbadebo, 2022. "Bubbles in US gasoline prices: Assessing the role of hurricanes and anti–price gouging laws," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    10. Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & Gabriele Mingoli, 2023. "Observation-Driven filters for Time- Series with Stochastic Trends and Mixed Causal Non-Causal Dynamics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-065/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Mar 2024.
    11. Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Szafranek, Karol & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2022. "Are European natural gas markets connected? A time-varying spillovers analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Cretí, Anna & Joëts, Marc, 2017. "Multiple bubbles in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 119-130.
    13. Ma, Richie Ruchuan & Xiong, Tao, 2021. "Price explosiveness in nonferrous metal futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 75-90.
    14. David Woroniuk & Arzé Karam & Tooraj Jamasb, 2019. "European Gas Markets, Trading Hubs, and Price Formation: A Network Perspective," Working Papers EPRG1922, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    15. Szafranek, Karol & Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2023. "How immune is the connectedness of European natural gas markets to exceptional shocks?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    16. Gabriele Mingoli, 2024. "Modeling Common Bubbles: A Mixed Causal Non-Causal Dynamic Factor Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-072/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    17. Broadstock, David C. & Li, Raymond & Wang, Linjin, 2020. "Integration reforms in the European natural gas market: A rolling-window spillover analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    18. Chen, Yufeng & Wang, Chuwen & Zhu, Zhitao, 2022. "Toward the integration of European gas futures market under COVID-19 shock: A quantile connectedness approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    19. Cassetta, Ernesto & Nava, Consuelo R. & Zoia, Maria Grazia, 2022. "EU electricity market integration and cross-country convergence in residential and industrial end-user prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    20. Blasques, Francisco & Koopman, Siem Jan & Nientker, Marc, 2022. "A time-varying parameter model for local explosions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 65-84.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price adjustment; Energy prices; Bubbles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:62:y:2017:i:c:p:419-427. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.