IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v46y2014icp176-185.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An econometric framework for evaluating the efficiency of a market for transmission congestion contracts

Author

Listed:
  • Mount, Timothy D.
  • Ju, Jaeuk

Abstract

The goals of this paper are to 1) simulate the ex-ante riskiness of purchasing a TCC, and 2) evaluate the efficiency of the TCC market in New York State to determine if there is evidence of under-pricing. Three VAR models are estimated using only market data available before the auction. This model is then used to simulate the daily payouts of a TCC for the following summer. A Monte Carlo procedure simulates the daily summer temperatures, the levels of quantity demanded and prices over the summer months. The main empirical result is that the market price paid for the most important TCC, in terms of volume, (the Hudson Valley to New York City) is higher than the mean of the simulated payouts even though the actual payout was higher than the market price. The market prices for the other two TCCs are lower than the means of the simulated payouts, and as a result, there is no consistent evidence of under-pricing in this analysis of the market for six-month TCCs in the summer of 2006.

Suggested Citation

  • Mount, Timothy D. & Ju, Jaeuk, 2014. "An econometric framework for evaluating the efficiency of a market for transmission congestion contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 176-185.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:46:y:2014:i:c:p:176-185
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.09.014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988314002242
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.09.014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Ning, 2009. "Market performance and bidders' bidding behavior in the New York Transmission Congestion Contract market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 61-68, January.
    2. Hadsell, Lester & Shawky, Hany A., 2009. "Efficiency and Profit in the NYISO Transmission Congestion Contract Market," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 47-57, November.
    3. Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2009. "Market integration among electricity markets and their major fuel source markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 482-491, May.
    4. Haesun Park & James Mjelde & David Bessler, 2007. "Time-varying threshold cointegration and the law of one price," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(9), pages 1091-1105.
    5. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
    6. Hogan, William W, 1992. "Contract Networks for Electric Power Transmission," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 211-242, September.
    7. Joskow, Paul L., 2005. "Transmission policy in the United States," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 95-115, June.
    8. William W. Hogan, 1997. "A Market Power Model with Strategic Interaction in Electricity Networks," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 107-141.
    9. Park, Haesun & Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Price dynamics among U.S. electricity spot markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 81-101, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael G. Pollitt & Karim L. Anaya, 2021. "Competition in Markets for Ancillary Services? The Implications of Rising Distributed Generation," The Energy Journal, , vol. 42(1_suppl), pages 1-2, June.
    2. Gauthier, Geneviève & Godin, Frédéric & Trudeau, Gabrielle, 2023. "Pricing inconsistency between the futures and Financial Transmission Right markets in North America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Adam E. Clements & A. Stan Hurn & Zili Li, 2017. "The Effect of Transmission Constraints on Electricity Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 38(4), pages 145-163, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gauthier, Geneviève & Godin, Frédéric & Trudeau, Gabrielle, 2023. "Pricing inconsistency between the futures and Financial Transmission Right markets in North America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Lyu, Chenyan & Do, Hung Xuan & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2024. "Volatility spillovers and carbon price in the Nordic wholesale electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J. & Moore, J. & Horowitz, I., 2011. "Wind generation and zonal-market price divergence: Evidence from Texas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3928-3938, July.
    4. Andreas Ehrenmann & Karsten Neuhoff, 2009. "A Comparison of Electricity Market Designs in Networks," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(2), pages 274-286, April.
    5. Jin Zhang & David C. Broadstock, 2016. "The Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth for China in a Time-varying Framework," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(1_suppl), pages 29-54, January.
    6. Newbery, David & Pollitt, Michael G. & Ritz, Robert A. & Strielkowski, Wadim, 2018. "Market design for a high-renewables European electricity system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 695-707.
    7. Woo, C.K. & Chen, Y. & Olson, A. & Moore, J. & Schlag, N. & Ong, A. & Ho, T., 2017. "Electricity price behavior and carbon trading: New evidence from California," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 531-543.
    8. Adamson, Seabron & Noe, Thomas & Parker, Geoffrey, 2010. "Efficiency of financial transmission rights markets in centrally coordinated periodic auctions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 771-778, July.
    9. Ma, Hengyun & Oxley, Les, 2010. "The integration of major fuel source markets in China: Evidence from panel cointegration tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1139-1146, September.
    10. Rosellón, Juan & Myslíková, Zdenka & Zenón, Eric, 2011. "Incentives for transmission investment in the PJM electricity market: FTRs or regulation (or both?)," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-13, January.
    11. Sertaç Oruç & Scott Cunningham, 2014. "Transmission Rights to the Electrical Transmission Grid in the Post Liberalization Era," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 5(4), pages 686-705, December.
    12. Jürgen Weiss, 2002. "Market Power and Power Markets," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 32(5), pages 37-46, October.
    13. Neuhoff, K., 2003. "Integrating Transmission and Energy Markets Mitigates Market Power," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0310, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Ferkingstad, Egil & Løland, Anders & Wilhelmsen, Mathilde, 2011. "Causal modeling and inference for electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 404-412, May.
    15. Bjørndal, Endre & Bjørndal, Mette & Gribkovskaia, Victoria, 2014. "A Nodal Pricing Model for the Nordic Electricity Market," Discussion Papers 2014/43, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    16. Woo, C.K. & Moore, J. & Schneiderman, B. & Ho, T. & Olson, A. & Alagappan, L. & Chawla, K. & Toyama, N. & Zarnikau, J., 2016. "Merit-order effects of renewable energy and price divergence in California’s day-ahead and real-time electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 299-312.
    17. Woo, C.K. & Shiu, A. & Liu, Y. & Luo, X. & Zarnikau, J., 2018. "Consumption effects of an electricity decarbonization policy: Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 887-902.
    18. Michael G. Pollitt, 2011. "Lessons from the History of Independent System Operators in the Energy Sector, with applications to the Water Sector," Working Papers EPRG 1125, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    19. Hu, X. & Ralph, D. & Ralph, E.K. & Bardsley, P. & Ferris, M.C., 2004. "Electricity Generation with Looped Transmission Networks: Bidding to an ISO," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0470, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    20. Zugang Liu & Anna Nagurney, 2009. "An integrated electric power supply chain and fuel market network framework: Theoretical modeling with empirical analysis for New England," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(7), pages 600-624, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity prices; Econometric models; TCC; Financial risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:46:y:2014:i:c:p:176-185. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.