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Decomposing the impact of alternative technology sets on future carbon emissions growth

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  • Fisher-Vanden, Karen
  • Schu, Kathryn
  • Sue Wing, Ian
  • Calvin, Katherine

Abstract

What are the drivers of future global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions growth and how would the availability of key energy supply technologies change their relative importance? In this paper, we apply a novel index number decomposition technique to the results of a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model to quantify the influence of five factors on the growth of future carbon emissions: (1) growth in global economic activity; (2) shifts in the regional composition of gross world product; (3) shifts in the sectoral composition of regions' GDP; (4) changes in sectors' energy–output ratios; and (5) changes in the CO2 intensity of energy sources. We elucidate how the relative importance of these factors changes in response to the imposition of a global carbon tax and alternative assumptions about the future availability of key energy supply technologies. Rising global economic activity and shifts in regional composition put upward pressure on emissions while changes in energy and emission intensity and the sectoral output mix have attenuating effects. A global emission tax that increases over time slows economic expansion and shifts the fuel mix, with the most pronounced impacts on China, India, and Russia. Limited availability of carbon capture and storage, nuclear, and hydroelectric generation all lead to upward shifts in the long-run marginal abatement cost curve, causing some countries to choose to pay the tax rather than abate.

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  • Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Schu, Kathryn & Sue Wing, Ian & Calvin, Katherine, 2012. "Decomposing the impact of alternative technology sets on future carbon emissions growth," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 359-365.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:s3:p:s359-s365
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.07.021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hongwei Xiao & Zhongyu Ma & Peng Zhang & Ming Liu, 2019. "Study of the impact of energy consumption structure on carbon emission intensity in China from the perspective of spatial effects," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(3), pages 1365-1380, December.
    2. Richard Tol, 2013. "Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 961-970, April.
    3. Sungwon Lee & Taesung Hwang, 2018. "Estimating Emissions from Regional Freight Delivery under Different Urban Development Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-14, April.
    4. Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 251-260.
    5. Ang, B.W. & Goh, Tian, 2019. "Index decomposition analysis for comparing emission scenarios: Applications and challenges," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 74-87.
    6. Hannah Förster & Katja Schumacher & Enrica De Cian & Michael Hübler & Ilkka Keppo & Silvana Mima & Ronald D. Sands, 2013. "European Energy Efficiency And Decarbonization Strategies Beyond 2030 — A Sectoral Multi-Model Decomposition," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(supp0), pages 1-29.
    7. Mathy, Sandrine & Menanteau, Philippe & Criqui, Patrick, 2018. "After the Paris Agreement: Measuring the Global Decarbonization Wedges From National Energy Scenarios," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 273-289.
    8. Lin, Boqiang & Li, Zheng, 2020. "Is more use of electricity leading to less carbon emission growth? An analysis with a panel threshold model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Calvin, Katherine & Fawcett, Allen & Kejun, Jiang, 2012. "Comparing model results to national climate policy goals: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 306-315.
    10. Marcucci, Adriana & Fragkos, Panagiotis, 2015. "Drivers of regional decarbonization through 2100: A multi-model decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 111-124.
    11. Fengjian Ge & Jiangfeng Li & Yi Zhang & Shipeng Ye & Peng Han, 2022. "Impacts of Energy Structure on Carbon Emissions in China, 1997–2019," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-25, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asia; Energy use; Carbon emissions; Global climate change; Computable general equilibrium; Technological change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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