IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v34y2012is3ps359-s365.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decomposing the impact of alternative technology sets on future carbon emissions growth

Author

Listed:
  • Fisher-Vanden, Karen
  • Schu, Kathryn
  • Sue Wing, Ian
  • Calvin, Katherine

Abstract

What are the drivers of future global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions growth and how would the availability of key energy supply technologies change their relative importance? In this paper, we apply a novel index number decomposition technique to the results of a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model to quantify the influence of five factors on the growth of future carbon emissions: (1) growth in global economic activity; (2) shifts in the regional composition of gross world product; (3) shifts in the sectoral composition of regions' GDP; (4) changes in sectors' energy–output ratios; and (5) changes in the CO2 intensity of energy sources. We elucidate how the relative importance of these factors changes in response to the imposition of a global carbon tax and alternative assumptions about the future availability of key energy supply technologies. Rising global economic activity and shifts in regional composition put upward pressure on emissions while changes in energy and emission intensity and the sectoral output mix have attenuating effects. A global emission tax that increases over time slows economic expansion and shifts the fuel mix, with the most pronounced impacts on China, India, and Russia. Limited availability of carbon capture and storage, nuclear, and hydroelectric generation all lead to upward shifts in the long-run marginal abatement cost curve, causing some countries to choose to pay the tax rather than abate.

Suggested Citation

  • Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Schu, Kathryn & Sue Wing, Ian & Calvin, Katherine, 2012. "Decomposing the impact of alternative technology sets on future carbon emissions growth," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 359-365.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:s3:p:s359-s365
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.07.021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014098831200165X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.07.021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ang, B. W., 2004. "Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:: which is the preferred method?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1131-1139, June.
    2. Chris Bataille & Nic Rivers & Paulus Mau & Chris Joseph & Jian-Jun Tu, 2007. "How Malleable are the Greenhouse Gas Emission Intensities of the G7 Nations?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 145-170.
    3. Wing, Ian Sue, 2006. "The synthesis of bottom-up and top-down approaches to climate policy modeling: Electric power technologies and the cost of limiting US CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3847-3869, December.
    4. Ang, B. W., 2005. "The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis: a practical guide," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 867-871, May.
    5. Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, 1994. "North-South Trade and the Environment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 755-787.
    6. Ang, B.W. & Liu, F.L., 2001. "A new energy decomposition method: perfect in decomposition and consistent in aggregation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 537-548.
    7. Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 251-260.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hongwei Xiao & Zhongyu Ma & Peng Zhang & Ming Liu, 2019. "Study of the impact of energy consumption structure on carbon emission intensity in China from the perspective of spatial effects," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(3), pages 1365-1380, December.
    2. Richard Tol, 2013. "Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 961-970, April.
    3. Sungwon Lee & Taesung Hwang, 2018. "Estimating Emissions from Regional Freight Delivery under Different Urban Development Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-14, April.
    4. Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 251-260.
    5. Ang, B.W. & Goh, Tian, 2019. "Index decomposition analysis for comparing emission scenarios: Applications and challenges," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 74-87.
    6. Hannah Förster & Katja Schumacher & Enrica De Cian & Michael Hübler & Ilkka Keppo & Silvana Mima & Ronald D. Sands, 2013. "European Energy Efficiency And Decarbonization Strategies Beyond 2030 — A Sectoral Multi-Model Decomposition," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(supp0), pages 1-29.
    7. Mathy, Sandrine & Menanteau, Philippe & Criqui, Patrick, 2018. "After the Paris Agreement: Measuring the Global Decarbonization Wedges From National Energy Scenarios," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 273-289.
    8. Lin, Boqiang & Li, Zheng, 2020. "Is more use of electricity leading to less carbon emission growth? An analysis with a panel threshold model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Calvin, Katherine & Fawcett, Allen & Kejun, Jiang, 2012. "Comparing model results to national climate policy goals: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 306-315.
    10. Marcucci, Adriana & Fragkos, Panagiotis, 2015. "Drivers of regional decarbonization through 2100: A multi-model decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 111-124.
    11. Fengjian Ge & Jiangfeng Li & Yi Zhang & Shipeng Ye & Peng Han, 2022. "Impacts of Energy Structure on Carbon Emissions in China, 1997–2019," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-25, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lu, I.J. & Lin, Sue J. & Lewis, Charles, 2007. "Decomposition and decoupling effects of carbon dioxide emission from highway transportation in Taiwan, Germany, Japan and South Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3226-3235, June.
    2. de Freitas, Luciano Charlita & Kaneko, Shinji, 2011. "Decomposition of CO2 emissions change from energy consumption in Brazil: Challenges and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1495-1504, March.
    3. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2017. "Analysis of energy-related CO2 emissions in China’s mining industry: Evidence and policy implications," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 77-87.
    4. Román-Collado, Rocío & Colinet, María José, 2018. "Are labour productivity and residential living standards drivers of the energy consumption changes?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 746-756.
    5. Zheng, Jiali & Mi, Zhifu & Coffman, D'Maris & Milcheva, Stanimira & Shan, Yuli & Guan, Dabo & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Regional development and carbon emissions in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 25-36.
    6. Xuankai Deng & Yanhua Yu & Yanfang Liu, 2015. "Effect of Construction Land Expansion on Energy-Related Carbon Emissions: Empirical Analysis of China and Its Provinces from 2001 to 2011," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-22, June.
    7. Zhang, Yan & Zhang, Jinyun & Yang, Zhifeng & Li, Shengsheng, 2011. "Regional differences in the factors that influence China’s energy-related carbon emissions, and potential mitigation strategies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7712-7718.
    8. Chontanawat, Jaruwan & Wiboonchutikula, Paitoon & Buddhivanich, Atinat, 2014. "Decomposition analysis of the change of energy intensity of manufacturing industries in Thailand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 171-182.
    9. Zhang, Chenjun & Wu, Yusi & Yu, Yu, 2020. "Spatial decomposition analysis of water intensity in China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    10. Jung, Seok & An, Kyoung-Jin & Dodbiba, Gjergj & Fujita, Toyohisa, 2012. "Regional energy-related carbon emission characteristics and potential mitigation in eco-industrial parks in South Korea: Logarithmic mean Divisia index analysis based on the Kaya identity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 231-241.
    11. Zbigniew Golas, 2020. "The Driving Forces of Change in Energy-related CO2 Emissions in the Polish Iron and Steel Industry in 1990-2017," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 94-102.
    12. Tian, Yihui & Zhu, Qinghua & Geng, Yong, 2013. "An analysis of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions in the Chinese iron and steel industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 352-361.
    13. Zbigniew Gołaś, 2022. "Changes in Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions of the Agricultural Sector in Poland from 2000 to 2019," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, June.
    14. Md. Afzal Hossain & Jean Engo & Songsheng Chen, 2021. "The main factors behind Cameroon’s CO2 emissions before, during and after the economic crisis of the 1980s," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 4500-4520, March.
    15. Yan, Qingyou & Zhang, Qian & Zou, Xin, 2016. "Decomposition analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in China's regional thermal electricity generation, 2000–2020," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 788-794.
    16. Lin, Boqiang & Ouyang, Xiaoling, 2014. "Analysis of energy-related CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions and reduction potential in the Chinese non-metallic mineral products industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 688-697.
    17. Fernández González, P. & Landajo, M. & Presno, M.J., 2014. "Tracking European Union CO2 emissions through LMDI (logarithmic-mean Divisia index) decomposition. The activity revaluation approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 741-750.
    18. Lin, Boqiang & Lei, Xiaojing, 2015. "Carbon emissions reduction in China's food industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 483-492.
    19. Jorge Cunha & Manuel Lopes Nunes & Fátima Lima, 2018. "Discerning the factors explaining the change in energy efficiency," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 163-179, December.
    20. Jeong, Kyonghwa & Kim, Suyi, 2013. "LMDI decomposition analysis of greenhouse gas emissions in the Korean manufacturing sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1245-1253.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asia; Energy use; Carbon emissions; Global climate change; Computable general equilibrium; Technological change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:s3:p:s359-s365. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.