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An integrated approach to energy prospects for North America and the rest of the world

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  • Bassi, Andrea M.
  • Powers, Robert
  • Schoenberg, William

Abstract

Many international organizations and research institutions have released recently unequivocal scenarios on energy's future prospects. The peak in global oil production is likely to happen in the next ten to fifteen years, if it hasn't already happened, and decisions to be made in the near future are likely to have large impacts on our quality of life in the coming decades. This study presents an integrated tool for national energy planning customized to North America. The authors analyzed the impact of world oil production on economic, social and environmental indicators. Two cases of global ultimate recoverable oil reserves are considered, a low and medium estimate within current research. Three sets of policy directions were chosen: Business As Usual (Market Based), Maximum Push for Renewables, and Low Carbon Emissions. Results of the simulations show that without restrictions on emissions coal becomes the dominant energy in the longer term. On the other hand, if US policymakers are able to effectively implement the necessary polices, such as a 20% RPS by 2020 and increased CAFE Standards, along with increased energy conservation and efficiency, the medium to longer-term economic impacts of a global peak in oil production can be mitigated, while a sustained reduction in emissions would require a larger effort.

Suggested Citation

  • Bassi, Andrea M. & Powers, Robert & Schoenberg, William, 2010. "An integrated approach to energy prospects for North America and the rest of the world," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 30-42, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:1:p:30-42
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Macías, Arturo & Matilla-García, Mariano, 2015. "Net energy analysis in a Ramsey–Hotelling growth model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 562-573.
    2. Melikoglu, Mehmet, 2013. "Vision 2023: Feasibility analysis of Turkey's renewable energy projection," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 570-575.
    3. Ugo Bardi & Alessandro Lavacchi, 2009. "A Simple Interpretation of Hubbert’s Model of Resource Exploitation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Bernardo, Giovanni & D'Alessandro, Simone, 2014. "Transition to sustainability? Feasible scenarios towards a low-carbon economy," MPRA Paper 53746, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Andrea M. Bassi, 2010. "Evaluating the Use of an Integrated Approach to Support Energy and Climate Policy Formulation and Evaluation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 3(9), pages 1-18, September.
    6. Koul, Saroj & Falebita, Oluwabunmi A. & Akinbami, John-Felix K. & Akarakiri, Joshua B., 2016. "System dynamics, uncertainty and hydrocarbon resources modelling: A systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 199-205.

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