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Transition to sustainability? Feasible scenarios towards a low-carbon economy

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  • Bernardo, Giovanni
  • D'Alessandro, Simone

Abstract

This paper analyses different policies that may promote the transition towards a low-carbon economy. We present a dynamic simulation model where three different strategies are identified: improvements in energy efficiency, the development of the renewable energy sector, and carbon capture and storage. Our aim is to evaluate the dynamics that the implementation of these strategies may produce in the economy, looking at different performance indicators, such as the GDP growth rate, unemployment, labour share, carbon emissions, and renewable energy production. Scenario analysis shows that a number of tradeoffs between social, economic and environmental indicators emerge. Such tradeoffs undermine an `objective' definition of sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernardo, Giovanni & D'Alessandro, Simone, 2014. "Transition to sustainability? Feasible scenarios towards a low-carbon economy," MPRA Paper 53746, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53746
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nieto, Jaime & Carpintero, Óscar & Miguel, Luis J. & de Blas, Ignacio, 2020. "Macroeconomic modelling under energy constraints: Global low carbon transition scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Zhang, Qi & Wu, Xifeng & Chen, Yu, 2022. "Is economic crisis an opportunity for realizing the low-carbon transition? A simulation study on the interaction between economic cycle and energy regulation policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sustainability; energy transition; system dynamics; scenario analysis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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