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A note on the conditional correlation between energy prices: Evidence from future markets

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  • Marzo, Massimiliano
  • Zagaglia, Paolo

Abstract

We model the joint movements of daily returns on one-month futures for crude oil, heating oil and natural gas through the multivariate GARCH with dynamic conditional correlations and elliptical distributions introduced by Pelagatti and Rondena [Pelagatti, M.M., Rondena, S., 2007. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation with Elliptical Distributions", unpublished manuscript. Universitá di Milano -- Bicocca, August]. Futures prices of crude and heating oil covary strongly. The conditional correlation between the futures prices of natural gas and crude oil has been rising over the last 5 years. However, this correlation has been low on average over two thirds of the sample, suggesting that future markets have no established tradition of pricing natural gas as a function of developments on oil markets.

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  • Marzo, Massimiliano & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2008. "A note on the conditional correlation between energy prices: Evidence from future markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2454-2458, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:30:y:2008:i:5:p:2454-2458
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engle, Robert F & Sheppard, Kevin K, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5s2218dp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    2. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    3. Engle, Robert F & Sheppard, Kevin K, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5s2218dp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cagli, Efe Caglar & Taskin, Dilvin & Evrim Mandaci, Pınar, 2019. "The short- and long-run efficiency of energy, precious metals, and base metals markets: Evidence from the exponential smooth transition autoregressive models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. Spargoli, Fabrizio & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2008. "The co-movements along the forward curve of natural gas futures: a structural view," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 26/2008, Bank of Finland.
    3. Jim Hanly, 2017. "Managing Energy Price Risk using Futures Contracts: A Comparative Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    4. Spargoli, Fabrizio & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2008. "The co-movements along the forward curve of natural gas futures : a structural view," Research Discussion Papers 26/2008, Bank of Finland.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2008_026 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Yuan, Chaoqing & Liu, Sifeng & Wu, Junlong, 2010. "The relationship among energy prices and energy consumption in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 197-207, January.
    7. Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "Dynamic convergence of commodity futures: Not all types of commodities are alike," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 150-160.
    8. Ji, Qiang & Guo, Jian-Feng, 2015. "Market interdependence among commodity prices based on information transmission on the Internet," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 426(C), pages 35-44.
    9. Tonn, Victor Lux & Li, H.C. & McCarthy, Joseph, 2010. "Wavelet domain correlation between the futures prices of natural gas and oil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 408-414, November.

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