Impacts of poverty alleviation on household GHG footprints in China

Eradicating poverty and mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are core issues of global sustainable development goals (SDGs), and China is struggling in realizing these targets. The poverty reduction that leads to popualtion structure and lifestyle changes would have an impact on GHG emission changes. However, few studies have assessed the historical and future impacts of the poverty allevation on China's emissions. Here by linking Chinese Multi-Regional Input Output (MRIO) database to the global MRIO database EXIOBASE, and using provincial household consumption data, we identified the distribution of Chinese household greenhouse gas footprints (HGFs) by income groups in 2015 at the national and provinical levels. Moreover, we focused on the historical impact of poverty alleviation on HGFs during 2010–2015, and developed four scenarios to project future HGFs changes due to poverty alleviation by 2030. We find that eradicating extreme poverty in the secanrio S2, i.e., bringing people to an income above $1.9 daily, does not cause a large emission impact with current technological level. However, lifting people from a higher poverty line of $5.5 per day in the sceanrio S4 results in a 1.6% increase in emissions compared with the scenario S1 without any poverty reduction goals. Furthermore, realizing a higher poverty reduction target will result in an increase of emissions contribution from internatioanl supply chains due to the differences in consumption patterns among different income groups. Our study highlights the conflict between the high poverty alleviaition goal and emission reduciton in China, and reminds us of the need to make more technological efforts for avoiding the large emissions embodied in international supply chains.