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What drives the “Smart-Money” effect? Evidence from investors’ money flow to mutual fund classes

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  • Jiang, George J.
  • Yuksel, H. Zafer

Abstract

The literature proposes two competing explanations — the “smart-money” and “persistent-flow” hypotheses — for the positive relation between mutual fund flow and future fund performance. We examine the flow-performance relation for different classes of U.S. domestic equity mutual funds. Our results show a stronger positive relation for the retail class than for the institutional class. More importantly, the significant relation for the retail class is mainly driven by funds with net outflow. This evidence is inconsistent with the smart-money hypothesis. We further show that retail funds exhibit greater persistence than institutional funds in net outflow. Once we control for expected fund flowfund flows, the flow-performance relation is no longer significant. We also perform robustness checks based on international funds and bond funds. The findings are supportive of the persistent-flow explanation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, George J. & Yuksel, H. Zafer, 2017. "What drives the “Smart-Money” effect? Evidence from investors’ money flow to mutual fund classes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 39-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:40:y:2017:i:c:p:39-58
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2016.11.005
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    2. Xuejun Jin & Yifan Shen & Bin Yu & Meifen Qian, 2022. "Flow‐driven risk shifting of high‐performing funds," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(1), pages 71-100, March.
    3. Murat Yaş & Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Mohamed Eskandar Shah Mohd Rasid, 2022. "Are religious investors financially smart? evidence from equity funds," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(1), pages 33-45, February.
    4. Elizabeth Nedumparambil & Anup Kumar Bhandari, 2022. "Risk factors, uncertainty, and investment decision: evidence from mutual fund flows from India," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 349-372, December.
    5. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "The informational role of fund flow in the profitable predictability of mutual funds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Jiang, George J. & Zaynutdinova, Gulnara R. & Zhang, Huacheng, 2021. "Stock-selection timing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Rakowski, David & Yamani, Ehab, 2021. "Endogeneity in the mutual fund flow–performance relationship: An instrumental variables solution," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 247-271.
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    9. Juan Carlos Matallín-Sáez & Amparo Soler-Domínguez & Diego Víctor Mingo-López, 2021. "On management risk and price in the mutual fund industry: style and performance distribution analysis," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(1), pages 150-171, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fund flows; Smart-money effect; Persistent-flow explanation; Institutional funds; Retail funds; Fund classes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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