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Timing the investment grade securities market: Evidence from high quality bond funds

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  • Boney, Vaneesha
  • Comer, George
  • Kelly, Lynne

Abstract

We examine the ability of bond fund managers to shift assets between bonds and cash and across bonds of different maturities in order to capture the changes in their relative returns. As measured by estimated changes in portfolio allocations, we find strong evidence of perverse market timing ability between cash and investment grade securities, and our results indicate additional perverse timing across the bond maturity spectrum. Results are robust to an alternative performance metric. We present evidence that the survival of the majority of these funds despite their negative performance may reflect the value investors place on the portfolio diversification benefits of holding these funds.

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  • Boney, Vaneesha & Comer, George & Kelly, Lynne, 2009. "Timing the investment grade securities market: Evidence from high quality bond funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 55-69, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:16:y:2009:i:1:p:55-69
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    3. Abbas Hejri, 2022. "On the recent developments of mutual funds with fixed‐income holdings: a systematic review," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(2), pages 2313-2338, June.
    4. George Comer & Javier Rodriguez, 2013. "A comparison of corporate versus government bond funds," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(4), pages 495-510, October.
    5. Keith Cuthbertson & Simon Hayley & Dirk Nitzsche, 2016. "Market and Style Timing: German Equity and Bond Funds," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(4), pages 667-696, September.
    6. Herrmann, Ulf & Scholz, Hendrik, 2013. "Short-term persistence in hybrid mutual fund performance: The role of style-shifting abilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2314-2328.
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    8. Gałkiewicz, Dominika Paula, 2015. "Loss potential and disclosures related to credit derivatives: A cross-country comparison of corporate bond funds under U.S. and German regulation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-017, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    9. Qin, Nan & Wang, Ying, 2021. "Does portfolio concentration affect performance? Evidence from corporate bond mutual funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    10. Francesco Potente & Antonio Scalia, 2016. "Market timing and performance attribution in the ECB reserve management framework," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1062, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Adam, Tim & Guettler, Andre, 2015. "Pitfalls and perils of financial innovation: The use of CDS by corporate bond funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 204-214.
    12. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Lazrak, Skander & Liao, Yusui & Welch, Robert, 2018. "Performance of fixed-income mutual funds with regime-switching models," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 217-231.
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    14. Chen, Yong & Ferson, Wayne & Peters, Helen, 2010. "Measuring the timing ability and performance of bond mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 72-89, October.
    15. Yong Chen & Wayne Ferson & Helen Peters, 2009. "Measuring the Timing Ability and Performance of Bond Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 15318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Zhengnan Yin & Niall O’Sullivan & Meadhbh Sherman, 2024. "The market timing ability of bond mutual funds," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(5), pages 508-527, September.
    17. Adam, Tim & Güttler, André, 2015. "Pitfalls and perils of financial innovation: The use of CDS by corporate bond funds," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-013, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    18. Jing-Zhi Huang & Ying Wang, 2014. "Timing Ability of Government Bond Fund Managers: Evidence from Portfolio Holdings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(8), pages 2091-2109, August.
    19. Lipton, Amy F. & Kish, Richard J., 2010. "Robust performance measures for high yield bond funds," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 332-340, August.
    20. Moneta, Fabio, 2015. "Measuring bond mutual fund performance with portfolio characteristics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 223-242.
    21. Roberto Violi, 2011. "Optimal active portolio management and relative performance drivers: theory and evidence," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 187-209, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2011. "Fixed-income fund performance: Role of luck and ability in tail membership," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 379-392, June.
    23. Jiang, George J. & Yuksel, H. Zafer, 2017. "What drives the “Smart-Money” effect? Evidence from investors’ money flow to mutual fund classes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 39-58.

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