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The role of covered interest parity in explaining the forward premium anomaly within a nonlinear panel framework

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  • Cho, Dooyeon

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic properties of uncovered interest parity (UIP) depending on deviations from covered interest parity (CIP) in a nonlinear panel framework. By employing a panel smooth transition regression model, the threshold level of the CIP deviation in which UIP tends to hold is found to be outside the band of inaction where deviations from CIP would fail to be arbitraged away. This paper shows how reversals of UIP observed during the global financial crisis can be, to some extent, accounted for by funding liquidity constraints. Simulation experiments also suggest that the data-generating process from the nonlinear panel model can produce data consistent with the failure of UIP.

Suggested Citation

  • Cho, Dooyeon, 2015. "The role of covered interest parity in explaining the forward premium anomaly within a nonlinear panel framework," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 229-238.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:34:y:2015:i:c:p:229-238
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2015.07.002
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    1. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Yang, Yukai, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2017.
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    7. Baillie, Richard T. & Cho, Dooyeon, 2014. "Time variation in the standard forward premium regression: Some new models and tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 52-63.
    8. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 1-6.
    10. Peel, David A & Taylor, Mark P, 2002. "Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage in the Interwar Period and the Keynes-Einzig Conjecture," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75, February.
    11. Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A. & Spiru, Alina, 2010. "The forward premium puzzle in the interwar period and deviations from covered interest parity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 55-57, July.
    12. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    13. Baillie, Richard T. & Kilic, Rehim, 2006. "Do asymmetric and nonlinear adjustments explain the forward premium anomaly?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 22-47, February.
    14. Bansal, Ravi, 1997. "An Exploration of the Forward Premium Puzzle in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 369-403.
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    Cited by:

    1. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Liu, Guangqiang, 2020. "Predicting exchange rate returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    2. Prince Hikouatcha & Arsène Aurelien Njamen Kengdo & Hans Patrick Bidias Menik & Pierre Ghislain Tchoffo Tioyem & Tii Njivukuh Nchofoung, 2023. "Microstructure and asset pricing: An insight on African frontier stock markets," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 944-987, October.
    3. Andres Gonzalez & Timo Terasvirta & Dick van Dijk, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," Research Paper Series 165, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Aurelien, Njamen Kengdo Arsene & Nchofoung, Tii Njivukuh & Marcel, Takoulac Kamta & Jean-Claude, Kouladoum, 2019. "Non-linear effect of military spending on economic growth in Africa: A comparative study between stable and unstable countries," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 195-215.
    5. Cho, Dooyeon, 2018. "On the persistence of the forward premium in the joint presence of nonlinearity, asymmetry, and structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 310-319.
    6. Cho, Dooyeon, 2021. "On the predictability of the distribution of excess returns in currency markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 511-530.
    7. Funke, Michael & Li, Xiang & Zhong, Doudou, 2023. "Household indebtedness, financial frictions and the transmission of monetary policy to consumption: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    8. Cho, Dooyeon & Chun, Sungju, 2019. "Can structural changes in the persistence of the forward premium explain the forward premium anomaly?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 225-235.
    9. Cho, Dooyeon & Han, Heejoon, 2021. "The tail behavior of safe haven currencies: A cross-quantilogram analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    10. Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Ogebe, Joseph O., 2019. "The validity of uncovered interest parity: Evidence from african members and non-member of the organisation of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 229-249.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncovered interest parity; Covered interest arbitrage; Nonlinearity; Time-varying parameter; Funding liquidity constraints; Band of inaction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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