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Is there any dependence between consumer credit line utilization and default probability on a term loan? Evidence from bank-customer data

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  • Bergerès, Anne-Sophie
  • d'Astous, Philippe
  • Dionne, Georges

Abstract

We study the relationship between two financial instruments through the simultaneous analysis of personal credit line utilization and default probability on a personal term loan. We model both dependent variables in a system of simultaneous equations and find strong evidence of dependence between the two financial instruments. Individuals in the default state draw their credit line by 9 percentage points more and, depending on the specification, a 10 percentage point increase in credit line utilization decreases the default probability by 0.09 to 0.41 percentage points, on a base default rate of 1.08%. This provides evidence that borrowers may use the liquidity of the credit line to pay down the term loan in periods of financial distress and suggests that banks should manage both financial instruments simultaneously.

Suggested Citation

  • Bergerès, Anne-Sophie & d'Astous, Philippe & Dionne, Georges, 2015. "Is there any dependence between consumer credit line utilization and default probability on a term loan? Evidence from bank-customer data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 276-286.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:33:y:2015:i:c:p:276-286
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2015.03.007
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    Cited by:

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    2. Modina, Michele & Pietrovito, Filomena & Gallucci, Carmen & Formisano, Vincenzo, 2023. "Predicting SMEs’ default risk: Evidence from bank-firm relationship data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 254-268.
    3. Zedda, Stefano & Modina, Michele & Gallucci, Carmen, 2024. "Cooperative credit banks and sustainability: Towards a social credit scoring," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Lagasio, Valentina & Brogi, Marina & Gallucci, Carmen & Santulli, Rosalia, 2023. "May board committees reduce the probability of financial distress? A survival analysis on Italian listed companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    5. Carmen Gallucci & Rosalia Santullli & Michele Modina & Vincenzo Formisano, 2023. "Financial ratios, corporate governance and bank-firm information: a Bayesian approach to predict SMEs’ default," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 27(3), pages 873-892, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer finance; Credit line utilization; Term loan default probability; Ability to pay; Endogeneity; Simultaneous equations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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