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Credit Cycle and Adverse Selection Effects in Consumer Credit Markets – Evidence from the HELOC Market

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  • Calem, P.
  • Cannon, M.
  • Nakamura, L.I.

Abstract

The authors empirically study how the underlying riskiness of the pool of home equity line of credit originations is affected over the credit cycle. Drawing from the largest existing database of U.S. home equity lines of credit, they use county-level aggregates of these loans to estimate panel regressions on the characteristics of the borrowers and their loans, and competing risk hazard regressions on the outcomes of the loans. The authors show that when the expected unemployment risk of households increases, riskier households tend to borrow more. As a consequence, the pool of households that borrow on home equity lines of credit worsens along both observable and unobservable dimensions. This is an interesting example of a type of dynamic adverse selection that can worsen the risk characteristics of new lending, and suggests another avenue by which the precautionary demand for liquidity may affect borrowing.
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Suggested Citation

  • Calem, P. & Cannon, M. & Nakamura, L.I., 2011. "Credit Cycle and Adverse Selection Effects in Consumer Credit Markets – Evidence from the HELOC Market," Discussion Paper 2011-086, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:c539362f-1a52-4613-b93c-924a5dbe9e22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pancrazi, Roberto & Pietrunti, Mario, 2019. "Natural expectations and home equity extraction," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    2. Min Qi & Harald Scheule & Yan Zhang, 2021. "Positive Payment Shocks, Liquidity and Refinance Constraints and Default Risk of Home Equity Lines of Credit at End of Draw," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 423-454, April.
    3. Anne-Sophie Bergerès & Philippe d'Astous & Georges Dionne, 2011. "Is there Any Dependence Between Consumer Credit Line Utilization and Default Probability on a Term Loan? Evidence from Bank-Level Data," Cahiers de recherche 1119, CIRPEE.
    4. Bergerès, Anne-Sophie & d'Astous, Philippe & Dionne, Georges, 2015. "Is there any dependence between consumer credit line utilization and default probability on a term loan? Evidence from bank-customer data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 276-286.
    5. Joseph L. Breeden & Jose J. Canals-Cerda, 2016. "Consumer risk appetite, the credit cycle, and the housing bubble," Working Papers 16-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    6. Michael LaCour-Little & Wei Yu & Libo Sun, 2014. "The Role of Home Equity Lending in the Recent Mortgage Crisis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(1), pages 153-189, March.

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