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Liquidity and credit premia in the yields of highly-rated sovereign bonds

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  • Ejsing, Jacob
  • Grothe, Magdalena
  • Grothe, Oliver

Abstract

This paper quantifies liquidity and credit premia in German and French government bond yields. For this purpose, we estimate term structures of government-guaranteed agency bonds and exploit the fact that differences in their yields vis-à-vis government bonds are mainly driven by liquidity effects. Adding information on benchmark rates, we estimate liquidity and credit premia as latent factors in a state-space framework. The results allow us, first, to quantify the price impact of safe-haven flows on sovereign yields, which strongly affected very liquid bond markets during the recent financial crisis. Second, we quantify credit premia for highly rated governments, offering an important alternative to the information based on CDS markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Ejsing, Jacob & Grothe, Magdalena & Grothe, Oliver, 2015. "Liquidity and credit premia in the yields of highly-rated sovereign bonds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 160-173.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:33:y:2015:i:c:p:160-173
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2015.04.001
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    Cited by:

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    2. Raphaël CHIAPPINI & Bertrand GROSLAMBERT & Olivier BRUNO, 2022. "Liquidity matters when measuring bank output," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2022-20, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).
    3. Magdalena Grothe & Aidan Meyler, 2018. "Inflation Forecasts: Are Market-Based and Survey-Based Measures Informative?," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 9(1), pages 171-188, January.
    4. Bansal, Ravi & Miller, Shane & Song, Dongho & Yaron, Amir, 2021. "The term structure of equity risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1209-1228.
    5. Tomas Heryan & Jan Ziegelbauer, 2016. "Volatility Of Yields Of Government Bonds Among Giips Countries During The Sovereign Debt Crisis In The Euro Area," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 61-74, March.
    6. Marta Gómez-Puig & Mary Pieterse-Bloem & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2022. ""Dynamic connectedness between credit and liquidity risks in EMU sovereign debt markets"," IREA Working Papers 202217, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2022.
    7. Beetsma, Roel & de Jong, Frank & Giuliodori, Massimo & Widijanto, Daniel, 2017. "Realized (co)variances of eurozone sovereign yields during the crisis: The impact of news and the Securities Markets Programme," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 14-31.
    8. Samir Kadiric, 2022. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: the impact of Brexit," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 267-298, May.
    9. De Santis, Roberto A. & Stein, Michael, 2016. "Correlation changes between the risk-free rate and sovereign yields of euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1979, European Central Bank.
    10. Chiappini, Raphaël & Groslambert, Bertrand & Bruno, Olivier, 2024. "A method to measure bank output while excluding credit risk and retaining liquidity effects," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 167-179.
    11. Paul J.J. Welfens & Samir Kadiric, 2017. "Neuere Finanzmarktaspekte von Bankenkrise, QE-Politik und EU-Bankenaufsicht," EIIW Discussion paper disbei239, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    12. Samir Kadiric, 2020. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: The impact of Brexit," EIIW Discussion paper disbei271, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    13. Jakob de Haan & Marco Hoeberichts & Renske Maas & Federica Teppa, 2016. "Inflation in the euro area and why it matters," DNB Occasional Studies 1403, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity premium; Sovereign credit risk; Yield curve modelling; Bond markets; State-space models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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