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Trading the bond-CDS basis: The role of credit risk and liquidity

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  • Trapp, Monika

Abstract

We analyze trading opportunities that arise from differences between the bond and the CDS market. By simultaneously entering a position in a CDS contract and the underlying bond, traders can build a default-risk free position that allows them to repeatedly earn the difference between the bond asset swap spread and the CDS, known as the basis. We show that the basis size is closely related to measures of company-specific credit risk and liquidity, and to market conditions. In analyzing the aggregate profits of these basis trading strategies, we document that dissolving a position leads to significant profit variations, but that attractive risk-return characteristics still apply. The aggregate profits depend on the credit risk, liquidity, and market measures even more strongly than the basis itself, and we show which conditions make long and short basis trades more profitable. Finally, we document the impact of the financial crisis on the profits of long and short basis trades, and show that the formerly more profitable long basis trades experienced stronger profit decreases than short basis trades.

Suggested Citation

  • Trapp, Monika, 2009. "Trading the bond-CDS basis: The role of credit risk and liquidity," CFR Working Papers 09-16, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:0916
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Didier Cossin & Tomas Hricko & Daniel Aunon-Nerin & Zhijiang Huang, 2002. "Exploring for the Determinants of Credit Risk in Credit Default Swap Transaction Data: Is Fixed-Income Markets’ Information Suffcient to Evaluate Credit Risk?," FAME Research Paper Series rp65, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    2. Jan De Wit, 2006. "Exploring the CDS-Bond Basis," Working Paper Research 104, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Óscar Arce & Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña, 2012. "Credit-valuation in the sovereing CDS and bonds markets: Evidence from the euro area crisis," CNMV Working Papers CNMV Working Papers no. 5, CNMV- Spanish Securities Markets Commission - Research and Statistics Department.
    2. Nina Boyarchenko & Pooja Gupta & Nick Steele & Jacqueline Yen, 2018. "Trends in credit basis spreads," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 24-2, pages 15-37.
    3. Juan Ignacio Pe~na, 2019. "Credit Cycles, Securitization, and Credit Default Swaps," Papers 1901.00177, arXiv.org.
    4. Nina Boyarchenko & Pooja Gupta & Nick Steele & Jacqueline Yen, 2016. "Trends in credit market arbitrage," Staff Reports 784, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Arce, Oscar & Mayordomo, Sergio & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Credit-risk valuation in the sovereign CDS and bonds markets: Evidence from the euro area crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 124-145.
    6. Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña & Juan Romo, 2011. "A New Test of Statistical Arbitrage with Applications to Credit Derivatives Markets," CNMV Working Papers CNMV Working Papers no. 4, CNMV- Spanish Securities Markets Commission - Research and Statistics Department.
    7. Ejsing, Jacob & Grothe, Magdalena & Grothe, Oliver, 2012. "Liquidity and credit risk premia in government bond yields," Working Paper Series 1440, European Central Bank.
    8. Óscar Arce & Fco. Javier González Pueyo & Lucio Sanjuán, 2010. "The Credit Default Swaps market: areas of vulnerability and regulatory responses," CNMV Working Papers CNMV Working Papers no. 4, CNMV- Spanish Securities Markets Commission - Research and Statistics Department.
    9. Ejsing, Jacob & Grothe, Magdalena & Grothe, Oliver, 2015. "Liquidity and credit premia in the yields of highly-rated sovereign bonds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 160-173.
    10. Guesmi, Sahar & Ben-Abdallah, Ramzi & Breton, Michèle & Dionne, Georges, 2019. "The CDS-bond Basis: Negativity Persistence and Limits to Arbitrage," Working Papers 19-4, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    11. R. Pianeti & R. Giacometti, 2015. "Estimating the probability of multiple EU sovereign defaults using CDS and bond data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 61-78, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bond asset swap spreads; CDS premia; basis trading profits; credit risk; liquidity; fixed-effects; vector error correction model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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