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Detecting individual preferences and erroneous verdicts in mixed martial arts judging using Bayesian hierarchical models

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  • Holmes, Benjamin
  • McHale, Ian G.
  • Żychaluk, Kamila

Abstract

In this paper, we use Bayesian hierarchical models to investigate the decision-making of judges of mixed martial arts (MMA) contests. Whilst there has been research into the judging of various sports in the past, none have explicitly modelled the judges’ behaviours at an individual level. We progress the literature by demonstrating that judges have personal preferences towards the different actions that they must assess during a fight. The preferences themselves may be the deciding factor in a bout, as demonstrated using a historical case study. We apply the concept of variable significance to the predictions of scores, to assess whether a judge’s verdict was within reason. Finally, we develop a model that predicts a bout’s fair outcome, which could be used in various ways in MMA.

Suggested Citation

  • Holmes, Benjamin & McHale, Ian G. & Żychaluk, Kamila, 2024. "Detecting individual preferences and erroneous verdicts in mixed martial arts judging using Bayesian hierarchical models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 312(2), pages 733-745.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:312:y:2024:i:2:p:733-745
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2023.07.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lewandowski, Daniel & Kurowicka, Dorota & Joe, Harry, 2009. "Generating random correlation matrices based on vines and extended onion method," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(9), pages 1989-2001, October.
    2. Frederiksen, Jesper S. & Machol, Robert E., 1988. "Reduction of paradoxes in subjectively judged competitions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 16-29, April.
    3. Brown, Alasdair & Reade, J. James, 2019. "The wisdom of amateur crowds: Evidence from an online community of sports tipsters," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(3), pages 1073-1081.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stuart Baumann & Carl Singleton, 2024. "They were robbed! Scoring by the middlemost to attenuate biased judging in boxing," Papers 2402.06594, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.

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