IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v304y2023i1p57-68.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling local coronavirus outbreaks

Author

Listed:
  • Chang, Joseph T.
  • Kaplan, Edward H.

Abstract

This article presents an overview of methods developed for the modeling and control of local coronavirus outbreaks. The article reviews early transmission dynamics featuring exponential growth in infections, and links this to a renewal epidemic model where the current incidence of infection depends upon the expected value of incidence randomly lagged into the past. This leads directly to simple formulas for the fraction of the population infected in an unmitigated outbreak, and reveals herd immunity as the solution to an optimization problem. The model also leads to direct and easy-to-understand formulas for aligning observable epidemic indicators such as cases, hospitalizations and deaths with the unobservable incidence of infection, and as a byproduct leads to a simple first-order approach for estimating the effective reproduction number Rt. The model also leads naturally to direct assessments of the effectiveness of isolation in preventing the spread of infection. This is illustrated with application to repeat asymptomatic screening programs of the sort utilized by universities, sports teams and businesses to prevent the spread of infection.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Joseph T. & Kaplan, Edward H., 2023. "Modeling local coronavirus outbreaks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 57-68.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:304:y:2023:i:1:p:57-68
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2021.07.049
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221721006597
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2021.07.049?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward H. Kaplan, 2020. "OM Forum—COVID-19 Scratch Models to Support Local Decisions," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 22(4), pages 645-655, July.
    2. J. A. P. Heesterbeek & K. Dietz, 1996. "The concept of Ro in epidemic theory," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 50(1), pages 89-110, March.
    3. Edward H. Kaplan, 2020. "Containing 2019-nCoV (Wuhan) coronavirus," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 311-314, September.
    4. Katelyn M Gostic & Lauren McGough & Edward B Baskerville & Sam Abbott & Keya Joshi & Christine Tedijanto & Rebecca Kahn & Rene Niehus & James A Hay & Pablo M De Salazar & Joel Hellewell & Sophie Meaki, 2020. "Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number, Rt," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-21, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Das, Saikat & Bose, Indranil & Sarkar, Uttam Kumar, 2023. "Predicting the outbreak of epidemics using a network-based approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 819-831.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matthias Klumpp & Dominic Loske, 2021. "Sustainability and Resilience Revisited: Impact of Information Technology Disruptions on Empirical Retail Logistics Efficiency," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-20, May.
    2. Gillis, Melissa & Urban, Ryley & Saif, Ahmed & Kamal, Noreen & Murphy, Matthew, 2021. "A simulation–optimization framework for optimizing response strategies to epidemics," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 8(C).
    3. Imelda Trejo & Nicolas W Hengartner, 2022. "A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for observed under-reported incidence data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-23, February.
    4. Reese Richardson & Emile Jorgensen & Philip Arevalo & Tobias M. Holden & Katelyn M. Gostic & Massimo Pacilli & Isaac Ghinai & Shannon Lightner & Sarah Cobey & Jaline Gerardin, 2022. "Tracking changes in SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a novel outpatient sentinel surveillance system in Chicago, USA," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Lin William Cong & Ke Tang & Bing Wang & Jingyuan Wang, 2021. "An AI-assisted Economic Model of Endogenous Mobility and Infectious Diseases: The Case of COVID-19 in the United States," Papers 2109.10009, arXiv.org.
    6. Palatella, Luigi & Vanni, Fabio & Lambert, David, 2021. "A phenomenological estimate of the true scale of CoViD-19 from primary data," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. Jonas E. Arias & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Minchul Shin, 2021. "Bayesian Estimation of Epidemiological Models: Methods, Causality, and Policy Trade-Offs," Working Papers 21-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    8. Mohammad Ebrahim Arbabian & Hossein Rikhtehgar Berenji, 2023. "Inventory systems with uncertain supplier capacity: an application to covid-19 testing," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 324-344, March.
    9. Joseph T. Chang & Forrest W. Crawford & Edward H. Kaplan, 2021. "Repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing models for residential college populations," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 305-318, June.
    10. Gong, Jiangyue & Gujjula, Krishna Reddy & Ntaimo, Lewis, 2023. "An integrated chance constraints approach for optimal vaccination strategies under uncertainty for COVID-19," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).
    11. Bradley S Price & Maryam Khodaverdi & Adam Halasz & Brian Hendricks & Wesley Kimble & Gordon S Smith & Sally L Hodder, 2021. "Predicting increases in COVID-19 incidence to identify locations for targeted testing in West Virginia: A machine learning enhanced approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-16, November.
    12. Dominic P. Brass & Christina A. Cobbold & Bethan V. Purse & David A. Ewing & Amanda Callaghan & Steven M. White, 2024. "Role of vector phenotypic plasticity in disease transmission as illustrated by the spread of dengue virus by Aedes albopictus," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-22, December.
    13. Sabah Bushaj & Xuecheng Yin & Arjeta Beqiri & Donald Andrews & İ. Esra Büyüktahtakın, 2023. "A simulation-deep reinforcement learning (SiRL) approach for epidemic control optimization," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 328(1), pages 245-277, September.
    14. Mohammad Reza Davahli & Krzysztof Fiok & Waldemar Karwowski & Awad M. Aljuaid & Redha Taiar, 2021. "Predicting the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States Using Graph Theory-Based Neural Networks," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-12, April.
    15. Theodoros Evgeniou & Mathilde Fekom & Anton Ovchinnikov & Raphaël Porcher & Camille Pouchol & Nicolas Vayatis, 2023. "Pandemic lockdown, isolation, and exit policies based on machine learning predictions," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(5), pages 1307-1322, May.
    16. Yun Lin & Bingyi Yang & Sarah Cobey & Eric H. Y. Lau & Dillon C. Adam & Jessica Y. Wong & Helen S. Bond & Justin K. Cheung & Faith Ho & Huizhi Gao & Sheikh Taslim Ali & Nancy H. L. Leung & Tim K. Tsan, 2022. "Incorporating temporal distribution of population-level viral load enables real-time estimation of COVID-19 transmission," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    17. Lester Blackmon & Ross Chan & Omar Carbral & Geeta Chintapally & Sandip Dhara & Peter Felix & Aditi Jagdish & Srini Konakalla & Jasbir Labana & Jeff McIlvain & Jason Stone & Christopher S. Tang & Jaso, 2021. "Rapid Development of a Decision Support System to Alleviate Food Insecurity at the Los Angeles Regional Food Bank amid the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(10), pages 3391-3407, October.
    18. Rezapour, Shabnam & Baghaian, Atefe & Naderi, Nazanin & Sarmiento, Juan P., 2023. "Infection transmission and prevention in metropolises with heterogeneous and dynamic populations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 113-138.
    19. Xiaoyan Xu & Suresh P. Sethi & Sai‐Ho Chung & Tsan‐Ming Choi, 2023. "Reforming global supply chain management under pandemics: The GREAT‐3Rs framework," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(2), pages 524-546, February.
    20. Zhiyuan Chen & Guangwen Kong, 2023. "Hospital admission, facility‐based isolation, and social distancing: An SEIR model with constrained medical resources," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(5), pages 1397-1414, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:304:y:2023:i:1:p:57-68. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.