IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v287y2020i3p1131-1148.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Parallel evolution and response decision method for public sentiment based on system dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Xie, Tian
  • Wei, Yao-yao
  • Chen, Wei-fan
  • Huang, Hai-nan

Abstract

Governments face difficulties in policy making in many areas such as health, food safety, and large-scale projects where public perceptions can be misplaced. For example, the adoption of the MMR vaccine has been opposed due to the publicity indicating an erroneous link between the vaccine and autism. This research proposes the “Parallel Evolution and Response Decision Framework for Public Sentiments” as a real-time decision-making method to simulate and control the public sentiment evolution mechanisms. This framework is based on the theories of Parallel Control and Management (PCM) and System Dynamics (SD) and includes four iterative steps: namely, SD modelling, simulating, optimizing, and controlling. A concrete case of an anti-nuclear mass incident that sparked public sentiment in China is introduced as a study sample to test the effectiveness of the proposed method. In addition, the results indicate the effects by adjusting the key control variables of response strategies. These variables include response time, response capacity, and transparency of the government regarding public sentiment. Furthermore, the advantages and disadvantages of the proposed method will be analyzed to determine how it can be used by policy makers in predicting public opinion and offering effective response strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Xie, Tian & Wei, Yao-yao & Chen, Wei-fan & Huang, Hai-nan, 2020. "Parallel evolution and response decision method for public sentiment based on system dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 1131-1148.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:287:y:2020:i:3:p:1131-1148
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2020.05.025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221720304550
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2020.05.025?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sun, Chuanwang & Zhu, Xiting & Meng, Xiaochun, 2016. "Post-Fukushima public acceptance on resuming the nuclear power program in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 685-694.
    2. Shumei Chen, 2009. "Sham or shame: Rethinking the China's milk powder scandal from a legal perspective," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 725-747, September.
    3. Thompson, James P. & Howick, Susan & Belton, Valerie, 2016. "Critical Learning Incidents in system dynamics modelling engagements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 945-958.
    4. Bañuls, Victor A. & Turoff, Murray & Hiltz, Starr Roxanne, 2013. "Collaborative scenario modeling in emergency management through cross-impact," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(9), pages 1756-1774.
    5. Philipp Wunderlich & Andreas Größler & Nicole Zimmermann & Jac A. M. Vennix, 2014. "Managerial influence on the diffusion of innovations within intra-organizational networks," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 30(3), pages 161-185, July.
    6. Morgan, Jennifer Sian & Howick, Susan & Belton, Valerie, 2017. "A toolkit of designs for mixing Discrete Event Simulation and System Dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(3), pages 907-918.
    7. Torres, Juan Pablo & Kunc, Martin & O'Brien, Frances, 2017. "Supporting strategy using system dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(3), pages 1081-1094.
    8. Rashwan, Wael & Abo-Hamad, Waleed & Arisha, Amr, 2015. "A system dynamics view of the acute bed blockage problem in the Irish healthcare system," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(1), pages 276-293.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Laihao Ma & Xiaoxue Ma & Jingwen Zhang & Qing Yang & Kai Wei, 2021. "A Methodology for Dynamic Assessment of Laboratory Safety by SEM-SD," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Wang, Qun & Jia, Guozhu & Song, Wenyan, 2022. "Identifying critical factors in systems with interrelated components: A method considering heterogeneous influence and strength attenuation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(1), pages 456-470.
    3. Li Yang & Xue Wang & Junqi Zhu & Liyan Sun & Zhiyuan Qin, 2022. "Comprehensive Evaluation of Deep Coal Miners’ Unsafe Behavior Based on HFACS-CM-SEM-SD," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-29, August.
    4. Hainan Huang & Weifan Chen & Tian Xie & Yaoyao Wei & Ziqing Feng & Weijiong Wu, 2021. "The Impact of Individual Behaviors and Governmental Guidance Measures on Pandemic-Triggered Public Sentiment Based on System Dynamics and Cross-Validation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-25, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Linnéusson, Gary & Ng, Amos H.C. & Aslam, Tehseen, 2020. "A hybrid simulation-based optimization framework supporting strategic maintenance development to improve production performance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 281(2), pages 402-414.
    2. Smith, Chris M. & Shaw, Duncan, 2019. "The characteristics of problem structuring methods: A literature review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 403-416.
    3. Schaffernicht, Martin FG. & Groesser, Stefan N., 2024. "Mental models of dynamic systems are different: Adjusting for heterogeneous granularity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 312(2), pages 653-667.
    4. Torres, Juan Pablo & Barrera, Jose Ignacio & Kunc, Martin & Charters, Steve, 2021. "The dynamics of wine tourism adoption in Chile," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 474-485.
    5. Lukas Schoenenberger & Alexander Schmid & Markus Schwaninger, 2015. "Towards the algorithmic detection of archetypal structures in system dynamics," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 31(1-2), pages 66-85, January.
    6. Yingyi Huang & Yuliya Mamatok & Chun Jin, 2021. "Decision-making instruments for container seaport sustainable development: management platform and system dynamics model," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 212-226, June.
    7. Margherita, Alessandro & Elia, Gianluca & Klein, Mark, 2021. "Managing the COVID-19 emergency: A coordination framework to enhance response practices and actions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    8. Nguyen, Le Khanh Ngan & Howick, Susan & Megiddo, Itamar, 2024. "A framework for conceptualising hybrid system dynamics and agent-based simulation models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(3), pages 1153-1166.
    9. Eichhorn Colombo, Konrad W., 2023. "Financial resilience analysis of floating production, storage and offloading plant operated in Norwegian Arctic region: Case study using inter-/transdisciplinary system dynamics modeling and simulatio," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    10. Cassidy, Rachel & Tomoaia-Cotisel, Andrada & Semwanga, Agnes Rwashana & Binyaruka, Peter & Chalabi, Zaid & Blanchet, Karl & Singh, Neha S. & Maiba, John & Borghi, Josephine, 2021. "Understanding the maternal and child health system response to payment for performance in Tanzania using a causal loop diagram approach," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    11. Xiaojiao Qiao & Dan Shi, 2019. "Risk Analysis of Emergency Based on Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-10, November.
    12. Herrera, Milton M. & Dyner, Isaac & Cosenz, Federico, 2020. "Benefits from energy policy synchronisation of Brazil’s North-Northeast interconnection," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 427-437.
    13. Garces, Estefany & Franco, Carlos J. & Tomei, Julia & Dyner, Isaac, 2023. "Sustainable electricity supply for small off-grid communities in Colombia: A system dynamics approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    14. Aubert, Alice H. & Esculier, Fabien & Lienert, Judit, 2020. "Recommendations for online elicitation of swing weights from citizens in environmental decision-making," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 7(C).
    15. Sebastian Hinderer & Leif Brändle & Andreas Kuckertz, 2021. "Transition to a Sustainable Bioeconomy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-16, July.
    16. Panula-Ontto, Juha, 2019. "The AXIOM approach for probabilistic and causal modeling with expert elicited inputs," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 292-308.
    17. Cheng, M.N. & Wong, Jane W.K. & Cheung, C.F. & Leung, K.H., 2016. "A scenario-based roadmapping method for strategic planning and forecasting: A case study in a testing, inspection and certification company," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 44-62.
    18. Paredes-Vergara, Matías & Palma-Behnke, Rodrigo & Haas, Jannik, 2024. "Characterizing decision making under deep uncertainty for model-based energy transitions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    19. Forliano, Canio & Ferraris, Alberto & Bivona, Enzo & Couturier, Jerome, 2022. "Pouring new wine into old bottles: A dynamic perspective of the interplay among environmental dynamism, capabilities development, and performance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 448-463.
    20. Divya Mishra & Amita Mital & Samir K. Srivastava, 2023. "Role of international strategic alliances in internationalization of business group affiliated firms—A system dynamics approach," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 552-572, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:287:y:2020:i:3:p:1131-1148. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.