A quantitative model for disruption mitigation in a supply chainAuthor-Name: Paul, Sanjoy Kumar

In this paper, a three-stage supply chain network, with multiple manufacturing plants, distribution centers and retailers, is considered. For this supply chain system we develop three different approaches, (i) an ideal plan for an infinite planning horizon and an updated plan if there are any changes in the data, (ii) a predictive mitigation planning approach for managing predictive demand changes, which can be predicted in advance by using an appropriate tool, and (iii) a reactive mitigation plan, on a real-time basis, for managing sudden production disruptions, which cannot be predicted in advance. In predictive mitigation planning, we develop a fuzzy inference system (FIS) tool to predict the changes in future demand over the base forecast and the supply chain plan is revised accordingly well in advance. In reactive mitigation planning, we formulate a quantitative model for revising production and distribution plans, over a finite future planning period, while minimizing the total supply chain cost. We also consider a series of sudden disruptions, where a new disruption may or may not affect the recovery plans of earlier disruptions and which consequently require plans to be revised after the occurrence of each disruption on a real-time basis. An efficient heuristic, capable of dealing with sudden production disruptions on a real-time basis, is developed. We compare the heuristic results with those obtained from the LINGO optimization software for a good number of randomly generated test problems. Also, some numerical examples are presented to explain both the usefulness and advantages of the proposed approaches.