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The impact of global climate change on water quantity and quality: A system dynamics approach to the US–Mexican transborder regionAuthor-Name: Duran-Encalada, J.A

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  • Paucar-Caceres, A.
  • Bandala, E.R.
  • Wright, G.H.

Abstract

The potential impacts of Global Climate Change (GCC) in zones where water is scarce, such as along the US–Mexico border is, and will continue to be, a key concern for the future sustainability of humanity. This paper estimates the variation in quality/quantity water due to climate change and assesses its impact on community development in the US–Mexico border region of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo Water Basin. To estimate variation in different water quality parameters, we use a conservative model with most probable scenarios for temperature/precipitation produced by the International Panel on Climate Change. We propose a system dynamics model to understand the complex interaction of factors governing the quantity/quality of water and their effects on social and economic conditions. The model simulates, for a 70-year period, policies and decisions that have the potential to improve conditions and prevent risks that may lead to social unrest and hinder economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Paucar-Caceres, A. & Bandala, E.R. & Wright, G.H., 2017. "The impact of global climate change on water quantity and quality: A system dynamics approach to the US–Mexican transborder regionAuthor-Name: Duran-Encalada, J.A," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(2), pages 567-581.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:256:y:2017:i:2:p:567-581
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2016.06.016
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    1. Wang, Lizhong & Fang, Liping & Hipel, Keith W., 2008. "Basin-wide cooperative water resources allocation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 190(3), pages 798-817, November.
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    3. Luis Felipe Luna-Reyes & Jorge A. Durán-Encalada & Erick R. Bandala, 2013. "Exploring Alternatives for Sustainable Development in the Tamiahua Wetlands," Journal of Entrepreneurship, Management and Innovation, Fundacja Upowszechniająca Wiedzę i Naukę "Cognitione", vol. 9(2), pages 5-28.
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    Cited by:

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    4. bahri, muhamad, 2020. "Analysis of the water, energy, and food nexus using system archetypes: A case study in the Jatiluhur reservoir, West Java, Indonesia," SocArXiv c9b7d, Center for Open Science.
    5. Park, Jangho & Bayraksan, Güzin, 2023. "A multistage distributionally robust optimization approach to water allocation under climate uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(2), pages 849-871.
    6. Mir, R. & Azizyan, G. & Massah, A. & Gohari, A., 2022. "Fossil water: Last resort to resolve long-standing water scarcity?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    7. Langarudi, Saeed P. & Maxwell, Connie M. & Bai, Yining & Hanson, Austin & Fernald, Alexander, 2019. "Does Socioeconomic Feedback Matter for Water Models?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 35-45.

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