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Chance-constrained optimization for pension fund portfolios in the presence of default risk

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  • Sun, Yufei
  • Aw, Grace
  • Loxton, Ryan
  • Teo, Kok Lay

Abstract

In this paper, we consider the portfolio optimization problem for a pension fund consisting of various government and corporate bonds. The aim of the problem is to maximize the fund’s cash position at the end of the time horizon, while allowing for the possibility of bond defaults. We model this problem as a stochastic discrete-time optimal control problem with a chance constraint that ensures all future outgoing commitments can be met with sufficiently high probability. We then introduce a corresponding deterministic formulation that is a conservative approximation of the original stochastic optimal control problem. This approximate problem can be solved using gradient-based optimization techniques. We conclude the paper with a simulation study.

Suggested Citation

  • Sun, Yufei & Aw, Grace & Loxton, Ryan & Teo, Kok Lay, 2017. "Chance-constrained optimization for pension fund portfolios in the presence of default risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(1), pages 205-214.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:256:y:2017:i:1:p:205-214
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2016.06.019
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    2. Deng, Chao & Zeng, Xudong & Zhu, Huiming, 2018. "Non-zero-sum stochastic differential reinsurance and investment games with default risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(3), pages 1144-1158.
    3. Gerrard, Russell & Hiabu, Munir & Kyriakou, Ioannis & Nielsen, Jens Perch, 2019. "Communication and personal selection of pension saver’s financial risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(3), pages 1102-1111.
    4. Baltas, I. & Dopierala, L. & Kolodziejczyk, K. & Szczepański, M. & Weber, G.-W. & Yannacopoulos, A.N., 2022. "Optimal management of defined contribution pension funds under the effect of inflation, mortality and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(3), pages 1162-1174.
    5. Lixia H. Lambert & Eric A. DeVuyst & Burton C. English & Rodney Holcomb, 2021. "Analyzing the Trade-Offs between Meeting Biorefinery Production Capacity and Feedstock Supply Cost: A Chance Constrained Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-13, August.
    6. Dawen Yan & Xiaohui Zhang & Mingzheng Wang, 2021. "A robust bank asset allocation model integrating credit-rating migration risk and capital adequacy ratio regulations," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 659-710, April.
    7. Koo, Bonsoo & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Wang, Yunxiao, 2022. "Novel utility-based life cycle models to optimise income in retirement," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 346-361.

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