IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jss/jstsof/v021i08.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling and Prediction - BAMP

Author

Listed:
  • Schmid, Volker J.
  • Held, Leonhard

Abstract

The software package BAMP provides a method of analyzing incidence or mortality data on the Lexis diagram, using a Bayesian version of an age-period-cohort model. A hierarchical model is assumed with a binomial model in the first-stage. As smoothing priors for the age, period and cohort parameters random walks of first and second order, with and without an additional unstructured component are available. Unstructured heterogeneity can also be included in the model. In order to evaluate the model fit, posterior deviance, DIC and predictive deviances are computed. By projecting the random walk prior into the future, future death rates can be predicted.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmid, Volker J. & Held, Leonhard, 2007. "Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling and Prediction - BAMP," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 21(i08).
    • Handle: RePEc:jss:jstsof:v:021:i08
    DOI: http://hdl.handle.net/10.18637/jss.v021.i08
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.jstatsoft.org/index.php/jss/article/view/v021i08/v21i08.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.jstatsoft.org/index.php/jss/article/downloadSuppFile/v021i08/bamp-sources.zip
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.jstatsoft.org/index.php/jss/article/downloadSuppFile/v021i08/bamp-windows.zip
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.jstatsoft.org/index.php/jss/article/downloadSuppFile/v021i08/bamp-linux.tar
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.jstatsoft.org/index.php/jss/article/downloadSuppFile/v021i08/bamp-graphics.zip
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/http://hdl.handle.net/10.18637/jss.v021.i08?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maximilian Weigert & Alexander Bauer & Johanna Gernert & Marion Karl & Asmik Nalmpatian & Helmut Küchenhoff & Jürgen Schmude, 2022. "Semiparametric APC analysis of destination choice patterns: Using generalized additive models to quantify the impact of age, period, and cohort on travel distances," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(5), pages 1377-1400, August.
    2. Joseph L. Breeden & Jose J. Canals-Cerda, 2016. "Consumer risk appetite, the credit cycle, and the housing bubble," Working Papers 16-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    3. Breeden, Joseph L., 2016. "Incorporating lifecycle and environment in loan-level forecasts and stress tests," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(2), pages 649-658.
    4. Joseph L. Breeden, 2024. "An Age–Period–Cohort Framework for Profit and Profit Volatility Modeling," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-23, May.
    5. Andrew Bell & Kelvyn Jones, 2014. "Another 'futile quest'? A simulation study of Yang and Land's Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort model," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(11), pages 333-360.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jss:jstsof:v:021:i08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.jstatsoft.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.