IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jrinsu/v88y2021i3p785-818.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Seasonality in catastrophe bonds and market‐implied catastrophe arrival frequencies

Author

Listed:
  • Markus Herrmann
  • Martin Hibbeln

Abstract

We develop a conceptual framework to model the seasonality in the probability of catastrophe bonds being triggered. This seasonality causes strong seasonal fluctuations in spreads. For example, the spread on a hurricane bond is highest at the start of the hurricane season and declines as time goes by without a hurricane. The spread is lowest at the end of the hurricane season assuming the bond was not triggered, and then gradually increases as the next hurricane season approaches. The model also implies that the magnitude of the seasonality effect increases with the expected loss and the approaching maturity of the bond. The model is supported by an empirical analysis that indicates that up to 47% of market fluctuations in the yield spreads on single‐peril hurricane bonds can be explained by seasonality. In addition, we provide a method to obtain market‐implied distributions of arrival frequencies from secondary market spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Herrmann & Martin Hibbeln, 2021. "Seasonality in catastrophe bonds and market‐implied catastrophe arrival frequencies," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(3), pages 785-818, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:88:y:2021:i:3:p:785-818
    DOI: 10.1111/jori.12335
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jori.12335
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jori.12335?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Silke Finken & Christian Laux, 2009. "Catastrophe Bonds and Reinsurance: The Competitive Effect of Information‐Insensitive Triggers," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 579-605, September.
    2. William W. Gould & Jeffrey Pitblado & Brian Poi, 2010. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 4, number ml4, March.
    3. Braun, Alexander & Ben Ammar, Semir & Eling, Martin, 2019. "Asset pricing and extreme event risk: Common factors in ILS fund returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 59-78.
    4. Semir Ben Ammar, 2020. "Catastrophe Risk and the Implied Volatility Smile," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 87(2), pages 381-405, June.
    5. Papachristou, Dimitris, 2011. "Statistiscal Analysis of the Spreads of Catastrophe Bonds at the Time of Issue," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 251-277, May.
    6. Schneeweis, Thomas & Woolridge, J. Randall, 1979. "Capital Market Seasonality: The Case of Bond Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(5), pages 939-958, December.
    7. Rozeff, Michael S. & Kinney, William Jr., 1976. "Capital market seasonality: The case of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 379-402, October.
    8. Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 6-16, March.
    9. Mustafa Gultekin & Bulent Gultekin, "undated". "Stock Market Seasonality: Internal Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 17-83, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    10. Lane, Morton N., 2000. "Pricing Risk Transfer Transactions1," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 259-293, November.
    11. Sun, Qian & Tong, Wilson H.S., 2010. "Risk and the January effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 965-974, May.
    12. Vidal-García, Javier & Vidal, Marta, 2014. "Seasonality and idiosyncratic risk in mutual fund performance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(3), pages 613-624.
    13. Roll, Richard, 1984. "Orange Juice and Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 861-880, December.
    14. Alexander Braun, 2016. "Pricing in the Primary Market for Cat Bonds: New Empirical Evidence," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(4), pages 811-847, December.
    15. Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
    16. Lane, Morton & Mahul, Olivier, 2008. "Catastrophe risk pricing : an empirical analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4765, The World Bank.
    17. Jordan, Susan D. & Jordan, Bradford D., 1991. "Seasonality in Daily Bond Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 269-285, June.
    18. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1987. "Further Evidence on Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonalit y," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 557-581, July.
    19. Cherry Y. Zhang & Ben Jacobsen, 2013. "Are Monthly Seasonals Real? A Three Century Perspective," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(5), pages 1743-1785.
    20. Peter Alaton & Boualem Djehiche & David Stillberger, 2002. "On modelling and pricing weather derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
    21. Gultekin, Mustafa N. & Gultekin, N. Bulent, 1983. "Stock market seasonality : International Evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 469-481, December.
    22. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2015. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums, and the Theory of Storage," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 4, pages 79-102, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    23. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2013. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-105.
    24. Marc Gürtler & Martin Hibbeln & Christine Winkelvos, 2016. "The Impact of the Financial Crisis and Natural Catastrophes on CAT Bonds," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(3), pages 579-612, September.
    25. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    26. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    27. Nadine Gatzert & Hato Schmeiser, 2011. "Industry loss warranties: contract features, pricing, and central demand factors," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 13-31, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dixon Domfeh & Arpita Chatterjee & Matthew Dixon, 2022. "A Unified Bayesian Framework for Pricing Catastrophe Bond Derivatives," Papers 2205.04520, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Girardin, Eric & Salimi Namin, Fatemeh, 2019. "The January effect in the foreign exchange market: Evidence for seasonal equity carry trades," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-439.
    2. Alin Marius ANDRIEŞ & Iulian IHNATOV & Nicu SPRINCEAN, 2017. "Do Seasonal Anomalies Still Exist In Central And Eastern European Countries? A Conditional Variance Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 60-83, December.
    3. Markus Herrmann & Martin Hibbeln, 2023. "Trading and liquidity in the catastrophe bond market," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 90(2), pages 283-328, June.
    4. Urquhart, Andrew & McGroarty, Frank, 2014. "Calendar effects, market conditions and the Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from long-run U.S. data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 154-166.
    5. Lynch, Andrew & Puckett, Andy & Yan, Xuemin (Sterling), 2014. "Institutions and the turn-of-the-year effect: Evidence from actual institutional trades," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 56-68.
    6. Beladi, Hamid & Chao, Chi Chur & Hu, May, 2016. "Another January effect—Evidence from stock split announcements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 123-138.
    7. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
    8. Abdul Rashid & Saba Kausar, 2019. "Testing the Monthly Calendar Anomaly of Stock Returns in Pakistan: A Stochastic Dominance Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(1), pages 83-104.
    9. Qiwei Chen, 2013. "Risk and seasonal effects: international evidence," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 299-311, November.
    10. Plastun, Alex & Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Rise and fall of calendar anomalies over a century," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 181-205.
    11. Makariou, Despoina & Barrieu, Pauline & Chen, Yining, 2021. "A random forest based approach for predicting spreads in the primary catastrophe bond market," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PB), pages 140-162.
    12. Obalade Adefemi A. & Muzindutsi Paul-Francois, 2019. "Calendar Anomalies, Market Regimes, and the Adaptive Market Hypothesis in African Stock Markets," Journal of Management and Business Administration. Central Europe, Sciendo, vol. 27(4), pages 71-94, December.
    13. Peter Carayannopoulos & Olga Kanj & M. Fabricio Perez, 2022. "Pricing dynamics in the market for catastrophe bonds," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 47(1), pages 172-202, January.
    14. Rajesh Elangovan & Francis Gnanasekar Irudayasamy & Satyanarayana Parayitam, 2022. "Month-of-the-Year Effect: Empirical Evidence from Indian Stock Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(3), pages 449-476, September.
    15. Christopher K. Ma & Ramesh P. Rao & Herbert J. Weinraub, 1988. "The Seasonality In Convertible Bond Markets: A Stock Effect Or Bond Effect?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 11(4), pages 335-347, December.
    16. Götze, Tobias & Gürtler, Marc, 2020. "Risk transfer and moral hazard: An examination on the market for insurance-linked securities," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 758-777.
    17. Vladimir Petrov & Anton Golub & Richard Olsen, 2019. "Instantaneous Volatility Seasonality of High-Frequency Markets in Directional-Change Intrinsic Time," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-31, April.
    18. Krzysztof Borowski, 2016. "Analysis Of Monthly Rates Of Return In April On The Example Of Selected World Stock Exchange Indices," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(2), pages 307-325, June.
    19. Suliman Zakaria Suliman Abdalla, 2015. "An Investigation of the Month-of-The-Year Effect for the Sudanese Stock Market," Working Papers 924, Economic Research Forum, revised Jun 2015.
    20. KUMAR Satish, 2017. "A Review On The Evolution Of Calendar Anomalies," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(1), pages 95-109, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:88:y:2021:i:3:p:785-818. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ariaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.