IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v215y2011i1p181-187.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Should European gamblers play lotto in the USA?

Author

Listed:
  • Hofer, Vera
  • Leitner, Johannes

Abstract

Any jackpot building game is designed to have a negative expected return for the gambler, but it can be profitable under certain circumstances. Previous studies have shown that the purchase of a single ticket of US-American state lotteries is sometimes a gamble with a positive expected value. Lottery winnings are not taxed in Europe, which suggests that the profitability of European games may be even higher. We present an exact formula for the calculation of the expected value of a single lotto ticket and find European lottery drawings to be far less profitable for the gambler compared to the US-American lotto market. Those US lotteries that generate profitable drawings are not characterized by higher redistribution rates or by their specific rules, but by the purchasing behavior of the gamblers. These gamblers buy far fewer tickets (per capita) and they barely react to increasing jackpots, even though the jackpots are large enough to cause positive expected winnings.

Suggested Citation

  • Hofer, Vera & Leitner, Johannes, 2011. "Should European gamblers play lotto in the USA?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(1), pages 181-187, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:215:y:2011:i:1:p:181-187
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221711004978
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beenstock, Michael & Goldin, Ephraim & Haitovsky, Yoel, 2000. "What jackpot? The optimal lottery tax," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 655-671, November.
    2. Beenstock, Michael & Haitovsky, Yoel, 2001. "Lottomania and other anomalies in the market for lotto," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 721-744, December.
    3. David Forrest & Robert Simmons & Neil Chesters, 2002. "Buying a Dream: Alternative Models of Demand for Lotto," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(3), pages 485-496, July.
    4. Cook, Philip J & Clotfelter, Charles T, 1993. "The Peculiar Scale Economies of Lotto," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 634-643, June.
    5. Victor Matheson, 2001. "When Are State Lotteries a Good Bet (Revisited)?," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 55-70, Winter.
    6. Jans, Raf & Degraeve, Zeger, 2008. "A note on a symmetrical set covering problem: The lottery problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 104-110, April.
    7. Kent R. Grote & Victor A. Matheson, 2006. "In Search of a Fair Bet in the Lottery," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 673-684, Fall.
    8. BakIr, Niyazi Onur & Klutke, Georgia-Ann, 2011. "Information and preference reversals in lotteries," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(3), pages 752-756, May.
    9. Pope, Robin & Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2009. "Expected utility versus the changes in knowledge ahead," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(3), pages 892-901, December.
    10. Droesbeke, F. & Lorea, M., 1982. "On the lotto problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 21-25, September.
    11. R Hartley & G Lanot, 2003. "On the design of lottery games," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(1), pages 89-100, January.
    12. Matheson, Victor A. & Grote, Kent R., 2004. "Lotto fever: do lottery players act rationally around large jackpots?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 233-237, May.
    13. repec:bla:econom:v:58:y:1991:i:229:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kent Grote & Victor Matheson, 2011. "The Economics of Lotteries: An Annotated Bibliography," Working Papers 1110, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    2. Kent Grote & Victor Matheson, 2011. "The Economics of Lotteries: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 1109, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    3. Humphreys, Brad & Perez, Levi, 2011. "Lottery Participants and Revenues: An International Survey of Economic Research on Lotteries," Working Papers 2011-17, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    4. Mao, Luke Lunhua & Zhang, James J. & Connaughton, Daniel P., 2015. "Sports gambling as consumption: Evidence from demand for sports lottery," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 436-447.
    5. Kent Grote & Victor Matheson, 2006. "Dueling Jackpots: Are Competing Lotto Games Complements or Substitutes?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(1), pages 85-100, March.
    6. repec:cup:judgdm:v:16:y:2021:i:4:p:1039-1059 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Brian A. Polin & Eyal Ben Isaac & Itzhak Aharon, 2021. "Patterns in manually selected numbers in the Israeli lottery," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 16(4), pages 1039-1059, July.
    8. Walther Herbert, 2005. "Optimal Taxation of Gambling and Lotto," Working Papers geewp47, Vienna University of Economics and Business Research Group: Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness.
    9. Peel, D.A., 2010. "On lottery sales, jackpot sizes and irrationality: A cautionary note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 161-163, December.
    10. Orrin David Gulley, 2018. "The optimal structure of lotto games," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 156-161.
    11. Gabrielyan, Gnel & Just, David R., 2017. "Economic Factors Affecting Lottery Sales: An Examination of Maine State Lottery Sales," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258419, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Luke Lunhua Mao & James J Zhang & Daniel P Connaughton, 2015. "Determinants of Demand for Sports Lottery: Insights from a Multilevel Model," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(8), pages 973-987, August.
    13. Jindapon, Paan & Sujarittanonta, Pacharasut & Viriyavipart, Ajalavat, 2022. "Prize-linked savings games: Theory and experiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 202-229.
    14. Kam Yu, 2009. "Measuring the Output and Prices of the Lottery Sector: An Application of Implicit Expected Utility Theory," NBER Chapters, in: Price Index Concepts and Measurement, pages 405-425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Victor Matheson & Kent Grote, 2009. "Spreading the Fortune: The Distribution of Lottery Prizes across Countries," Working Papers 0904, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    16. Alejandro Díaz & Levi Pérez, 2021. "Setting The Odds Of Winning The Jackpot: On The Economics Of (Re) Designing Lottery Games," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 168-177, January.
    17. Kent R. Grote & Victor A. Matheson, 2006. "In Search of a Fair Bet in the Lottery," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 673-684, Fall.
    18. Beenstock, Michael & Szpiro, George, 2002. "Specification search in nonlinear time-series models using the genetic algorithm," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 811-835, May.
    19. McHale, I.G. & Peel, D.A., 2010. "Habit and long memory in UK lottery sales," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 7-10, October.
    20. XiaoGang Che & Brad Humphreys, 2014. "Contests with a Prize Externality and Stochastic Entry," Working Papers 14-19, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    21. Chen, Shu-Heng & Chie, Bin-Tzong, 2008. "Lottery markets design, micro-structure, and macro-behavior: An ACE approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 463-480, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:215:y:2011:i:1:p:181-187. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.