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Risk-averse order policies with random prices in complete market and retailers' private information

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  • Tapiero, Charles S.
  • Kogan, Konstantin

Abstract

We consider a retailer who orders products before the price for them becomes known. The price is an outcome of perfect competition in a complete market. Since the demand is price sensitive, the uncertainty in prices induces uncertain profits and associated risks. In this paper we show that if the retailer is risk averse and, as a result, selects a utility function of profit to maximize, then his subjective assessment of future prices is affected by the risk attitude. This, in turn, introduces a bias in retailer's ordering policies. By considering coordinated pricing and ordering policies we derive a relationship between risk aversion, retailer's subjective (private) assessment and the market implied, risk neutral forecast. This relationship and the induced bias are then illustrated for two typical operations management strategies which involve either inventory considerations or promotions avoiding accumulation of stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Tapiero, Charles S. & Kogan, Konstantin, 2009. "Risk-averse order policies with random prices in complete market and retailers' private information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 196(2), pages 594-599, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:196:y:2009:i:2:p:594-599
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christophe Pérignon & Christophe Villa, 2002. "Extracting Information from Options Markets: Smiles, State–Price Densities and Risk Aversion," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 8(4), pages 495-513, December.
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    5. Yumi Oum & Shmuel Oren & Shijie Deng, 2006. "Hedging quantity risks with standard power options in a competitive wholesale electricity market," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(7), pages 697-712, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sen Lin & Bo Li & Antonio Arreola-Risa & Yiwei Huang, 2023. "Optimizing a single-product production-inventory system under constant absolute risk aversion," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 31(3), pages 510-537, October.
    2. Hu, Benyong & Meng, Chao & Xu, Dong & Son, Young-Jun, 2016. "Three-echelon supply chain coordination with a loss-averse retailer and revenue sharing contracts," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 192-202.
    3. Chun-Hung Chiu & Tsan-Ming Choi, 2016. "Supply chain risk analysis with mean-variance models: a technical review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 240(2), pages 489-507, May.
    4. Mou, Shandong & Robb, David J. & DeHoratius, Nicole, 2018. "Retail store operations: Literature review and research directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(2), pages 399-422.

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