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Supply chain optimization of petroleum organization under uncertainty in market demands and prices

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  • Al-Othman, Wafa B.E.
  • Lababidi, Haitham M.S.
  • Alatiqi, Imad M.
  • Al-Shayji, Khawla

Abstract

A multi-period stochastic planning model has been developed and implemented for a supply chain network of a petroleum organization operating in an oil producing country under uncertain market conditions. The proposed supply chain network consists of all activities related to crude oil production, processing and distribution. Uncertainties were introduced in market demands and prices. A deterministic optimization model was first developed and tested. The impact of uncertainty on the supply chain was studied by performing a sensitivity analysis in which ±20% deviations were introduced in market demands and prices of different commodities. A stochastic formulation was then proposed, which is based on the two-stage problem with finite number of realizations. The proposed stochastic programming approach proved to be quite effective in developing resilient production plans in light of high degree of uncertainty in market conditions. The anticipated production plans have a considerably lower expected value of perfect information (EVPI). The main conclusion of this study is that for an oil producing country with oil processing capabilities, the impact of economic uncertainties may be tolerated by an appropriate balance between crude exports and processing capacities.

Suggested Citation

  • Al-Othman, Wafa B.E. & Lababidi, Haitham M.S. & Alatiqi, Imad M. & Al-Shayji, Khawla, 2008. "Supply chain optimization of petroleum organization under uncertainty in market demands and prices," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 189(3), pages 822-840, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:189:y:2008:i:3:p:822-840
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    17. Mirkhani, Sh. & Saboohi, Y., 2012. "Stochastic modeling of the energy supply system with uncertain fuel price – A case of emerging technologies for distributed power generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 668-674.
    18. Iddrisu Awudu & William Wilson & George Baah & Vinay Gonela & Mariama Yakubu, 2024. "Revenue maximization and pricing: an ethanol supply chain and logistical strategy perspectives," Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(1), pages 62-75, February.
    19. Awudu, Iddrisu & Zhang, Jun, 2012. "Uncertainties and sustainability concepts in biofuel supply chain management: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1359-1368.
    20. Mobin Zarreh & Mohammad Khandan & Alireza Goli & Adel Aazami & Sebastian Kummer, 2024. "Integrating Perishables into Closed-Loop Supply Chains: A Comprehensive Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-45, August.
    21. Kumar, Sourabh & Barua, Mukesh Kumar, 2022. "A modeling framework and analysis of challenges faced by the Indian petroleum supply chain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).
    22. Moradi Nasab, N. & Amin-Naseri, M.R., 2016. "Designing an integrated model for a multi-period, multi-echelon and multi-product petroleum supply chain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 708-733.
    23. Zhang, Guoquan & Shang, Jennifer & Li, Wenli, 2011. "Collaborative production planning of supply chain under price and demand uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(3), pages 590-603, December.

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