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Tobacco taxes and illicit cigarette trade in Colombia

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  • Gallego, Juan M.
  • Llorente, Blanca
  • Maldonado, Norman
  • Otálvaro-Ramírez, Susana
  • Rodríguez-Lesmes, Paul

Abstract

This paper estimates the short-term impact of a twofold increase of the tobacco excise tax on consumption of illicit cigarette trade in Colombia. Using data collected before and after the tax increase from a novel smoker survey (DEICS-Col), the impact is estimated as the change in the probability that a smoker has illicit cigarettes. The methodology follows a difference-in-differences strategy, measuring the year-to-year variation of the proportion of illicit cigarettes between smokers who report buying low-priced cigarettes (the highest treatment intensity) and those who bought high-priced cigarettes (lowest treatment intensity). Estimations of the impact show an average increase of 4–5 percentage points on the proportion of illicit cigarettes relative to an initial penetration of low-priced illicit cigarettes of nearly 5.1 %.

Suggested Citation

  • Gallego, Juan M. & Llorente, Blanca & Maldonado, Norman & Otálvaro-Ramírez, Susana & Rodríguez-Lesmes, Paul, 2020. "Tobacco taxes and illicit cigarette trade in Colombia," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:39:y:2020:i:c:s1570677x20301726
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2020.100902
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    2. Pedro Cadahia & Antonio A. Golpe & Juan M. Mart'in 'Alvarez & E. Asensio, 2022. "Measuring anomalies in cigarette sales by using official data from Spanish provinces: Are there only the anomalies detected by the Empty Pack Surveys (EPS) used by Transnational Tobacco Companies (TTC," Papers 2203.06640, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Illicit cigarette trade; Tobacco excise taxes; Tobacco control; Health behaviour;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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