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To react or not? Technology shocks, fiscal policy and welfare in the EU-3

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  • Malley, Jim
  • Philippopoulos, Apostolis
  • Woitek, Ulrich

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to examine the quantitative macroeconomic implications of counter-cyclical fiscal policy for France, Germany and the UK. The model incorporates real wage rigidity and consumption habits, as the particular market failures justifying policy intervention. We subject the model to productivity shocks and allow policy instruments to react to the output gap and the debt-to-output ratio. A welfare analysis reveals that the most effective instrument-target combination is to use public consumption to stabilize the output gap. Moreover, welfare gains from counter-cyclical fiscal policy are much stronger in the presence of wage rigidities compared with consumption habits. Finally, since active policy and automatic stabilizers are substitutes, it is possible that relatively undistorted economies may be in need of countercyclical fiscal action due to inadequate automatic stabilizers.

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  • Malley, Jim & Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Woitek, Ulrich, 2009. "To react or not? Technology shocks, fiscal policy and welfare in the EU-3," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 689-714, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:53:y:2009:i:6:p:689-714
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    3. Angelopoulos, Konstantinos & Malley, Jim & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 2011. "The welfare implications of resource allocation policies under uncertainty: The case of public education spending," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 176-192, June.
    4. Alessandro Maravalle & Peter Claeys, 2010. "Fiscal policy and economic stability: does PIGS stand for Procyclicality In Government Spending?," IREA Working Papers 201015, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised 2010.
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    6. Mavrigiannakis, Konstantinos & Sakkas, Stelios, 2024. "EU sanctions on Russia and implications for a small open economy: the case of Cyprus," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125336, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. George Economides & Dimitris Papageorgiou & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2020. "Macroeconomic Policy Lessons for Greece from the Debt Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 8188, CESifo.
    8. Konstantinos Mavrigiannakis & Stelios Sakkas, 2024. "EU sanctions on Russia and implications for a small open economy: The case of Cyprus," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 200, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    9. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Jim Malley & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2008. "Welfare Implications of Public Education Spending Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 2510, CESifo.
    10. Jiang Wei, 2019. "Optimal taxation under equilibrium unemployment and economic profits," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-21, January.
    11. Angelopoulos, Konstantinos & Fernandez, Bernardo X. & Malley, James R., 2010. "The Distributional Consequences of Supply-Side Reforms in General Equilibrium," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-85, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    12. Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2016. "Business cycle determinants and fiscal policy: A Panel ARDL approach for EMU," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 57-68.
    13. Malley, James & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of funding U.S. infrastructure," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    14. George Economides & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Petros Varthalitis, 2016. "Monetary Union, Even Higher Integration, or Back to National Currencies?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(2), pages 232-255.
    15. Wei Jiang, 2014. "Optimal taxation and labour wedge in models with equilibrium unemployment," Studies in Economics 1407, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    16. Apostolis Philippopoulos & Petros Varthalitis & Vanghelis Vassilatos, 2013. "Optimal Fiscal Action in an Economy with Sovereign Premia and without Monetary Independence: An Application to Italy," CESifo Working Paper Series 4199, CESifo.
    17. Dimitris Papageorgiou, 2014. "BoGGEM: a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for policy simulations," Working Papers 182, Bank of Greece.
    18. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Junjie Wu & Milton Yago & Alaa M. Soliman, 2016. "Macroeconomic policy interaction: State dependency and implications for financial stability in UK: A systemic review," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1154283-115, December.
    19. Maravalle, Alessandro & Claeys, Peter, 2012. "Boom–bust cycles and procyclical fiscal policy in a small open economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 735-754.
    20. Apostolis Philippopoulos & Petros Varthalitis & Vanghelis Vassilatos, 2012. "On the optimal mix of fiscal and monetary policy actions," Working Papers 150, Bank of Greece.
    21. Dimitris Papageorgiou, 2011. "Fiscal policy, economic activity and welfare: the case of Greece," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2629-2640.

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