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A Simple, Non-Recursive Model of the Spread of COVID-19 With Applications to Policy

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  • Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden

Abstract

The paper presents early research on problems that make the use of the basic SIR-model of epidemiology difficult for short- and medium-run policy. The model essentially generalizes the simple exponential model in two respects. First, it considers the structure of the infectious population in more detail and introduces the concept of the "cohort composition kernel" that generalizes the aggregate transmission function and renders the transmission model non-recursive. Second, it shows how policy measures such as testing, social distancing, or quarantine rules can affect this kernel and how this can provide estimates for the impact and lag of nonpharmaceutical policy interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2020. "A Simple, Non-Recursive Model of the Spread of COVID-19 With Applications to Policy," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_171, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_171
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    File URL: https://www.crctr224.de/research/discussion-papers/archive/dp171
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Modelling

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    Cited by:

    1. Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michèle, 2023. "Optimal Age-based Policies for Pandemics: An Economic Analysis of Covid-19 and Beyond," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13295, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michele, 2024. "Optimal Age-based Policies for Pandemics: An Economic Analysis of Covid-19 and Beyond," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2024012, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    3. Giagheddu, Marta & Papetti, Andrea, 2023. "The macroeconomics of age-varying epidemics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Viral V. Acharya & Zhengyang Jiang & Robert J. Richmond & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2020. "Divided We Fall: International Health and Trade Coordination During a Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 28176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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