IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v126y2020ics0014292120300751.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Automation and labor force participation in advanced economies: Macro and micro evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Grigoli, Francesco
  • Koczan, Zsoka
  • Topalova, Petia

Abstract

Technological advances raise productivity and growth, but are also likely to reshape labor markets. We examine the impact of automation on aggregate labor force participation rates and individuals’ attachment to the workforce in advanced economies. Cross-country analysis, which leverages the variation in the routinizability of occupations and occupational composition, points to significant negative effects of automation on the participation rates of prime-age men and women. Individual-level analysis confirms that workers previously employed in routinizable occupations are more likely to drop out of the labor force. Encouragingly, higher spending on active labor market programs and education are, however, associated with smaller negative effects of technological change on participation.

Suggested Citation

  • Grigoli, Francesco & Koczan, Zsoka & Topalova, Petia, 2020. "Automation and labor force participation in advanced economies: Macro and micro evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:126:y:2020:i:c:s0014292120300751
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103443
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292120300751
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103443?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claudia Olivetti & Barbara Petrongolo, 2017. "The Economic Consequences of Family Policies: Lessons from a Century of Legislation in High-Income Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 205-230, Winter.
    2. David Card & Jochen Kluve & Andrea Weber, 2010. "Active Labour Market Policy Evaluations: A Meta-Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(548), pages 452-477, November.
    3. David Autor & Anna Salomons, 2018. "Is Automation Labor-Displacing? Productivity Growth, Employment, and the Labor Share," NBER Working Papers 24871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Joseph G. Altonji & Todd E. Elder & Christopher R. Taber, 2005. "Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables: Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 151-184, February.
    5. Per-Anders Edin & Tiernan Evans & Georg Graetz & Sofia Hernnäs & Guy Michaels, 2023. "Individual Consequences of Occupational Decline," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(654), pages 2178-2209.
    6. Soskice, David, 1990. "Wage Determination: The Changing Role of Institutions in Advanced Industrialized Countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 6(4), pages 36-61, Winter.
    7. Georg Graetz & Guy Michaels, 2018. "Robots at Work," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 753-768, December.
    8. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    9. Florence Jaumotte, 2003. "Female Labour Force Participation: Past Trends and Main Determinants in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 376, OECD Publishing.
    10. Giuseppe Bertola & Francine Blau & Lawrence Kahn, 2007. "Labor market institutions and demographic employment patterns," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 20(4), pages 833-867, October.
    11. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    12. Brent Neiman, 2014. "The Global Decline of the Labor Share," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 61-103.
    13. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series dp-297, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    14. Blau, Francine D. & Kahn, Lawrence M., 2013. "Female Labor Supply: Why is the US Falling Behind?," IZA Discussion Papers 7140, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Francine D. Blau & Lawrence M. Kahn, 2013. "Female Labor Supply: Why Is the United States Falling Behind?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 251-256, May.
    16. David Autor & Anna Salomons, 2018. "Is Automation Labor Share–Displacing? Productivity Growth, Employment, and the Labor Share," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(1 (Spring), pages 1-87.
    17. Thomas Kruppe & Julia Lang, 2018. "Labour market effects of retraining for the unemployed: the role of occupations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(14), pages 1578-1600, March.
    18. Emily Oster, 2019. "Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 187-204, April.
    19. Terry Gregory & A.M. Salomons & Ulrich Zierahn, 2016. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe," Working Papers 16-05, Utrecht School of Economics.
    20. Veronique Genre & Ramon Gomez Salvador & Ana Lamo, 2010. "European women: why do(n't) they work?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(12), pages 1499-1514.
    21. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    22. Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Zsoka Koczan & Petia Topalova, 2018. "Drivers of Labor Force Participation in Advanced Economies: Macro and Micro Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2018/150, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Lone Engbo Christiansen & Ms. Huidan Huidan Lin & Ms. Joana Pereira & Petia Topalova & Ms. Rima A Turk, 2016. "Gender Diversity in Senior Positions and Firm Performance: Evidence from Europe," IMF Working Papers 2016/050, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Johannesson, Magnus, 2003. "A note on the effect of unemployment on mortality," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 505-518, May.
    25. Bernhard Schmidpeter & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2018. "How do Automation and Offshorability Influence Unemployment Duration and Subsequent Job Quality?," CDL Aging, Health, Labor working papers 2018-05, The Christian Doppler (CD) Laboratory Aging, Health, and the Labor Market, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    26. Alain De Serres & Fabrice Murtin & Christine De La Maisonneuve, 2012. "Policies to Facilitate the Return to Work," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 54(1), pages 5-42, March.
    27. Weicheng Lian & Natalija Novta & Evgenia Pugacheva & Yannick Timmer & Petia Topalova, 2020. "The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 509-549, September.
    28. Andrea Bassanini & Romain Duval, 2009. "Unemployment, institutions, and reform complementarities: re-assessing the aggregate evidence for OECD countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 25(1), pages 40-59, Spring.
    29. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2016. "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1632-1662, July.
    30. Olivier Thévenon, 2013. "Drivers of Female Labour Force Participation in the OECD," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 145, OECD Publishing.
    31. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2014. "Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2509-2526, August.
    32. Claudia Olivetti & Barbara Petrongolo, 2017. "The Economic Consequences of Family Policies: Lessons from a Century of Legislation," Working Papers 811, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    33. Heckman, James J. & Lalonde, Robert J. & Smith, Jeffrey A., 1999. "The economics and econometrics of active labor market programs," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1865-2097, Elsevier.
    34. repec:nbr:nberch:14019 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Daniel Sullivan & Till von Wachter, 2009. "Job Displacement and Mortality: An Analysis Using Administrative Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(3), pages 1265-1306.
    36. Per-Anders Edin & Tiernan Evans & Georg Graetz & Sofia Hernnäs & Guy Michaels, 2019. "When machines replace people: individual consequences of occupational decline," CentrePiece - The magazine for economic performance 561, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    37. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Brendan Price, 2016. "Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 141-198.
    38. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    39. Marcus Eliason & Donald Storrie, 2009. "Does Job Loss Shorten Life?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(2).
    40. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
    41. Weicheng Lian & Natalija Novta & Evgenia Pugacheva & Yannick Timmer & Petia Topalova, 0. "The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-41.
    42. Andreas Knabe & Steffen Rätzel, 2011. "Scarring or Scaring? The Psychological Impact of Past Unemployment and Future Unemployment Risk," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(310), pages 283-293, April.
    43. Mai Dao & Davide Furceri & Tae-Jeong Kim & Meeyeon Kim & Jisoo Hwang, 2014. "Strategies for Reforming Korea’s Labor Market to Foster Growth," IMF Working Papers 2014/137, International Monetary Fund.
    44. Murtin, Fabrice & de Serres, Alain & Hijzen, Alexander, 2014. "Unemployment and the coverage extension of collective wage agreements," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 52-66.
    45. Katharine G. Abraham & Melissa S. Kearney, 2020. "Explaining the Decline in the US Employment-to-Population Ratio: A Review of the Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 585-643, September.
    46. Benjamin Hilgenstock & Zsoka Koczan, 2018. "Still Attached? Are Social Safety Nets Working? Labor Force Participation in European Regions," IMF Working Papers 2018/165, International Monetary Fund.
    47. Mai Dao & Ms. Mitali Das & Zsoka Koczan & Weicheng Lian, 2017. "Why Is Labor Receiving a Smaller Share of Global Income? Theory and Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2017/169, International Monetary Fund.
    48. Peter Gal & Adam Theising, 2015. "The macroeconomic impact of structural policies on labour market outcomes in OECD countries: A reassessment," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1271, OECD Publishing.
    49. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    50. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6jq9vl5fsi9sqbrqvnnqn21dcs is not listed on IDEAS
    51. Benjamin Hilgenstock & Zsoka Koczan, 2018. "Permanently Displaced? Increasingly Disconnected? Labor Force Participation in U.S. States and Metropolitan Areas," IMF Working Papers 2018/118, International Monetary Fund.
    52. Cipollone, Angela & Patacchini, Eleonora & Vallanti, Giovanna, 2013. "Women Labor Market Participation in Europe: Novel Evidence on Trends and Shaping Factors," IZA Discussion Papers 7710, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    53. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:49:y:2019:i:2018-01:p:1-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    54. Claudia Olivetti & Barbara Petrongolo, 2017. "The Economic Consequences of Family Policies: Lessons from a Century of Legislation in High-Income Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 205-230, Winter.
    55. Ms. Mitali Das & Benjamin Hilgenstock, 2018. "The Exposure to Routinization: Labor Market Implications for Developed and Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/135, International Monetary Fund.
    56. Joel Mokyr & Chris Vickers & Nicolas L. Ziebarth, 2015. "The History of Technological Anxiety and the Future of Economic Growth: Is This Time Different?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 31-50, Summer.
    57. Alan B. Krueger, 2017. "Where Have All the Workers Gone? An Inquiry into the Decline of the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 1-87.
    58. Angela Cipollone & Eleonora Patacchini & Giovanna Vallanti, 2013. "Women Labor Market Performance In Europe:Novel Evidence On Trends And Shaping Factors," Working Papers LuissLab 13107, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Zsoka Koczan & Petia Topalova, 2018. "Drivers of Labor Force Participation in Advanced Economies: Macro and Micro Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2018/150, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Pinghui Wu, 2022. "Wage Inequality and the Rise in Labor Force Exit: The Case of US Prime-Age Men," Working Papers 22-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Céline Piton, 2022. "The labour market performance of vulnerable groups: towards a better understanding of the main driving forces," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/352519, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Gregory, Terry & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145843, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Hideki Nakamura & Joseph Zeira, 2024. "Automation and unemployment: help is on the way," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 215-250, June.
    6. Francesco Grigoli & Zsoka Koczan & Petia Topalova, 2022. "Calling older workers back to work," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 559-566, March.
    7. Georg Graetz, 2019. "Labor Demand in the Past, Present, and Future," European Economy - Discussion Papers 114, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Martin Labaj & Materj Vitalos, 2019. "Automation and labor demand in European countries: A task-based approach to wage bill decomposition," Department of Economic Policy Working Paper Series 021, Department of Economic Policy, Faculty of National Economy, University of Economics in Bratislava.
    9. Davide Dottori, 2021. "Robots and employment: evidence from Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 739-795, July.
    10. Robert Stehrer, 2022. "The Impact of ICT and Intangible Capital Accumulation on Labour Demand Growth and Functional Income Shares," wiiw Working Papers 218, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    11. Genz, Sabrina & Schnabel, Claus, 2021. "Digging into the Digital Divide: Workers' Exposure to Digitalization and Its Consequences for Individual Employment," IZA Discussion Papers 14649, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Teimouri, Sheida & Zietz, Joachim, 2020. "Coping with deindustrialization: A panel study for early OECD countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-41.
    13. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:49:y:2019:i:2018-01:p:1-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Benjamin Hilgenstock & Zsoka Koczan, 2018. "Still Attached? Are Social Safety Nets Working? Labor Force Participation in European Regions," IMF Working Papers 2018/165, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Anderton, Robert & Jarvis, Valerie & Labhard, Vincent & Morgan, Julian & Petroulakis, Filippos & Vivian, Lara, 2020. "Virtually everywhere? Digitalisation and the euro area and EU economies," Occasional Paper Series 244, European Central Bank.
    16. Goos, Maarten & Rademakers, Emilie & Röttger, Ronja, 2021. "Routine-Biased technical change: Individual-Level evidence from a plant closure," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    17. Fernández-Macías, Enrique & Klenert, David & Antón, José-Ignacio, 2021. "Not so disruptive yet? Characteristics, distribution and determinants of robots in Europe," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 76-89.
    18. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2020. "Innovation, automation, and inequality: Policy challenges in the race against the machine," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 249-265.
    19. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "Low-Skill and High-Skill Automation," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(2), pages 204-232.
    20. Lewandowski, Piotr & Keister, Roma & Hardy, Wojciech & Górka, Szymon, 2020. "Ageing of routine jobs in Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    21. Katharine G. Abraham & Melissa S. Kearney, 2020. "Explaining the Decline in the US Employment-to-Population Ratio: A Review of the Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 585-643, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor force participation; Technology; Automation; Routinization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:126:y:2020:i:c:s0014292120300751. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.