IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2017-02-72.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Does Monetary Policy Affect Economic Vulnerability to Oil Price Shock as against US Economy Shock?

Author

Listed:
  • Fatemeh Razmi

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Malaysia,)

  • Azali Mohamed

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Malaysia,)

  • Lee Chin

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Malaysia,)

  • Muzafar Shah Habibullah

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Malaysia.)

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of the monetary policy in protecting the economy against the external shocks of US output and oil price during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. It also considers economic vulnerability caused by these external shocks after the crisis abated. The application of the structural vector auto regression model using monthly data from 2002:M1 to 2013:M4 for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand shows that poor influence of monetary policies on monetary policy transmission channels (namely, interest rate, exchange rate, domestic credit, and stock price) in the pre-crisis period could not shield these economies from shocks of oil price and US output. The results of post-crisis period indicate a significant increase in the positive impact of monetary policy on channels of monetary transmission channels compared to the pre-crisis period. However, these economies continue to remain vulnerable to oil price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatemeh Razmi & Azali Mohamed & Lee Chin & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2017. "How Does Monetary Policy Affect Economic Vulnerability to Oil Price Shock as against US Economy Shock?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 544-550.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2017-02-72
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/4122/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/4122/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Okunev, John & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2002. "Relationships between Australian Real Estate and Stock Market Prices--A Case of Market Inefficiency," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 181-192, April.
    2. Yamamoto, Shugo, 2014. "Transmission of US financial and trade shocks to Asian economies: Implications for spillover of the 2007–2009 US financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 88-103.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13716 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    5. repec:cup:cbooks:9781107034662 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2015. "How do US credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 128-145.
    7. Tuuli Juurikkala & Alexei Karas & Laura Solanko, 2011. "The Role of Banks in Monetary Policy Transmission: Empirical Evidence from Russia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 109-121, February.
    8. Xiaowen Tian & Shuanglin Lin & Vai Io Lo, 2004. "Foreign direct investment and economic performance in transition economies: evidence from China," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 497-510.
    9. Aleem, Abdul, 2010. "Transmission mechanism of monetary policy in India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 186-197, April.
    10. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1997. "What does the Bundesbank target?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1025-1053, June.
    11. Gerlach, Richard & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2006. "Structural breaks and diversification: The impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis on the integration of Asia-Pacific real estate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 974-991, October.
    12. Hesse, Heiko, 2007. "Monetary policy, structural break and the monetary transmission mechanism in Thailand," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 649-669, August.
    13. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    14. Disyatat, Piti & Vongsinsirikul, Pinnarat, 2003. "Monetary policy and the transmission mechanism in Thailand," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 389-418, June.
    15. Kishan, Ruby P. & Opiela, Timothy P., 2006. "Bank capital and loan asymmetry in the transmission of monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 259-285, January.
    16. Chong, Beng Soon, 2010. "Interest rate deregulation: Monetary policy efficacy and rate rigidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1299-1307, June.
    17. Brooks,Chris, 2014. "Introductory Econometrics for Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107661455, December.
    18. M. Azali & K. G. P. Matthews, 1999. "Money-income and credit-income relationships during the pre- and the post-liberalization periods: evidence from Malaysia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(10), pages 1161-1170.
    19. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2010. "Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 356-361, January.
    20. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    21. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    22. repec:cii:cepiie:2014-q4-140-30 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2004. "Economic Performance and Unemployment: Evidence from an Emerging Economy - Turkey," Working Papers 0409, Economic Research Forum, revised 01 Aug 2004.
    24. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    25. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Nonlinearities And The Macroeconomic Effects Of Oil Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 364-378, November.
    26. Ahmet Sengonul & Willem Thorbecke, 2005. "The effect of monetary policy on bank lending in Turkey," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(13), pages 931-934.
    27. Hassani, Hossein & Heravi, Saeed & Zhigljavsky, Anatoly, 2009. "Forecasting European industrial production with singular spectrum analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 103-118.
    28. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Morana, Claudio, 2012. "The Great Recession: US dynamics and spillovers to the world economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-13.
    29. Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher & Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul, 2011. "Role of oil price shocks on macroeconomic activities: An SVAR approach to the Malaysian economy and monetary responses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8062-8069.
    30. Li, Yun Daisy & Iscan, Talan B. & Xu, Kuan, 2010. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on stock prices: Evidence from Canada and the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 876-896, September.
    31. Babajide Fowowe, 2014. "Modelling the oil price –exchange rate nexus for South Africa," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 140, pages 36-48.
    32. Kimberly Beaton & René Lalonde & Stephen Snudden, 2014. "The propagation of U.S. shocks to Canada: Understanding the role of real financial linkages," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(2), pages 466-493, May.
    33. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2004. "Do public investments crowd out private investments? Fresh evidence from Fiji," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 747-753, September.
    34. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The Channels of Monetary Transmission: Lessons for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Montes, Gabriel Caldas, 2013. "Credibility and monetary transmission channels under inflation targeting: An econometric analysis from a developing country," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 670-684.
    36. Ono, Shigeki, 2013. "The effects of foreign exchange and monetary policies in Russia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 522-541.
    37. World Bank, 2012. "World Development Indicators 2012," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6014.
    38. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2001. "The Transmission Mechanism and the Role of Asset Prices in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Wu, Man-Hwa & Ni, Yen-Sen, 2011. "The effects of oil prices on inflation, interest rates and money," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4158-4164.
    40. Hakan Berument & Zubeyir Kilinc, 2004. "The effect of foreign income on economic performance of a small-open economy: evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(8), pages 483-488.
    41. Creti, Anna & Ftiti, Zied & Guesmi, Khaled, 2014. "Oil price and financial markets: Multivariate dynamic frequency analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 245-258.
    42. repec:dgr:rugsom:04e15 is not listed on IDEAS
    43. Mala Raghavan & Paramsothy Silvapulle & George Athanasopoulos, 2012. "Structural VAR models for Malaysian monetary policy analysis during the pre- and post-1997 Asian crisis periods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(29), pages 3841-3856, October.
    44. Cunado, Juncal & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2003. "Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 137-154, March.
    45. Liang, Chin-Chia & Lin, Jeng-Bau & Hsu, Hao-Cheng, 2013. "Reexamining the relationships between stock prices and exchange rates in ASEAN-5 using panel Granger causality approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 560-563.
    46. Rahman, Sajjadur & Serletis, Apostolos, 2010. "The asymmetric effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks: A nonlinear VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1460-1466, November.
    47. Shibamoto, Masahiko & Shizume, Masato, 2014. "Exchange rate adjustment, monetary policy and fiscal stimulus in Japan's escape from the Great Depression," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-18.
    48. Zhang, Chuanguo & Chen, Xiaoqing, 2011. "The impact of global oil price shocks on China’s stock returns: Evidence from the ARJI(-ht)-EGARCH model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6627-6633.
    49. John B. Taylor, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 11-26, Fall.
    50. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall.
    51. Elbourne, Adam, 2008. "The UK housing market and the monetary policy transmission mechanism: An SVAR approach," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 65-87, March.
    52. Creti, Anna & Ftiti, Zied & Guesmi, Khaled, 2014. "Oil price and financial markets: Multivariate dynamic frequency analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 245-258.
    53. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2013. "Monetary policy and stock market dynamics across monetary regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 381-406.
    54. Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2013. "The impact of global oil price shocks on the Lebanese stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 366-374.
    55. Karagiannis, Stelios & Panagopoulos, Yannis & Vlamis, Prodromos, 2010. "Interest rate pass-through in Europe and the US: Monetary policy after the financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 323-338, May.
    56. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    57. Buckle, Robert A. & Kim, Kunhong & Kirkham, Heather & McLellan, Nathan & Sharma, Jarad, 2007. "A structural VAR business cycle model for a volatile small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 990-1017, November.
    58. Jungho Baek & Won W. Koo, 2010. "Analyzing Factors Affecting U.S. Food Price Inflation," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 58(3), pages 303-320, September.
    59. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 91, European Central Bank.
    60. Elbourne, Adam & Salomons, Roelof, 2004. "Monetary transmission and equity markets in the EU," Research Report 04E15, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    61. Koivu, Tuuli, 2012. "Monetary policy, asset prices and consumption in China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 307-325.
    62. Aynur Pala, 2013. "Structural Breaks, Cointegration, and Causality by VECM Analysis of Crude Oil and Food Price," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 238-246.
    63. repec:cii:cepiei:2014-q4-140-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    64. Voss, Graham M., 2002. "Public and private investment in the United States and Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 641-664, August.
    65. Bachmeier, Lance, 2008. "Monetary policy and the transmission of oil shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1738-1755, December.
    66. Abbas Valadkhani & George Chen, 2014. "An empirical analysis of the US stock market and output growth volatility spillover effects on three Anglo-Saxon countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 323-335, May.
    67. Iwayemi, Akin & Fowowe, Babajide, 2011. "Impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 603-612, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Seyedeh Fatemeh Razmi & Leila Torki & Seyed Mohammad Javad Razmi & Ehsan Mohaghegh Dowlatabadi, 2022. "The Indirect Effects of Oil Price on Consumption through Assets," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 236-242.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Razmi, Fatemeh & Azali, M. & Chin, Lee & Shah Habibullah, Muzafar, 2016. "The role of monetary transmission channels in transmitting oil price shocks to prices in ASEAN-4 countries during pre- and post-global financial crisis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 581-591.
    2. Razmi, Fatemeh & M., Azali & Chin, Lee & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2015. "The effects of oil price and US economy on Thailand's macroeconomy: The role of monetary transmission mechanism," MPRA Paper 69096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Fatemeh Razmi & Azali Mohamed & Lee Chin & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2015. "The Role of Monetary Policy in Macroeconomic Volatility of Association of Southeast Asian Nations-4 Countries against Oil Price Shock over Time," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 731-737.
    4. Razmi, Fatemeh & Mohamed, Azali & Chin, Lee & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2015. "The role of monetary policy in macroeconomic volatility of ASEAN-4 countries against oil price shock over time," MPRA Paper 65714, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2014. "Monetary transmission mechanism analysis in a small, open economy: the case of Vietnam," OSF Preprints ybc8p, Center for Open Science.
    6. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2016. "Monetary policies and the macroeconomic performance of Vietnam," OSF Preprints akzy4, Center for Open Science.
    7. Li, Huan & Ni, Jinlan & Xu, Yueli & Zhan, Minghua, 2021. "Monetary policy and its transmission channels: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Is Monetary Policy Effective When Credit is Low?," IMF Working Papers 2008/288, International Monetary Fund.
    9. SHARMA Chandan & SETIA Rajat, 2017. "Effects Of Monetary Shocks On Exchange Rate: Empirical Evidence From India," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(2), pages 206-219, August.
    10. Adebayo Augustine Kutu & Harold Ngalawa, 2016. "Monetary Policy Shocks And Industrial Output In Brics Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(3), pages 3-24, July-Sept.
    11. Cheah, Siew Pong & Law, Siong Hook, 2017. "Roles of Housing Wealth and Financial Wealth in Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Malaysia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 51(1), pages 77-86.
    12. Mehmet BÖLÜKBAÞ, 2016. "The Effects of Economic Policies in Turkey: An Application for the Period After 2000," Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 315-322, December.
    13. Felix S. Nyumuah, 2018. "An Empirical Analysis of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism of Developing Economies: Evidence from Ghana," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(4), pages 72-83, April.
    14. d'Amico, Stefania & Mira Farka, 2003. "The Fed and Stock Market: A Proxy and Instrumental Variable Identification," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 52, Royal Economic Society.
    15. Seyedeh Fatemeh Razmi & Leila Torki & Seyed Mohammad Javad Razmi & Ehsan Mohaghegh Dowlatabadi, 2022. "The Indirect Effects of Oil Price on Consumption through Assets," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 236-242.
    16. Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar, 2012. "Estimating Impacts of Monetary Policy on Aggregate Demand in India," MPRA Paper 50902, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Héctor Bravo L. & Carlos García T., 2002. "Measuring Monetary Policy and Pass-Through in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(3), pages 5-28, December.
    18. Sterken, Elmer, 2003. "Monetary transmission, asset prices, and the business cycle indicator in Germany," CCSO Working Papers 200315, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    19. Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Bakri Abdul Karim, 2016. "Foreign Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy: A SVAR Study of Malaysia," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(3), pages 45-67, JUNE.
    20. Zulquar Nain & Bandi Kamaiah, 2020. "Uncertainty and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR Analysis," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 237-265.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Transmission; Global Financial Crisis; Monetary Policy; Domestic Credit; Stock Price; Exchange Rate; Interest Rate; Oil Price Shock; US Economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2017-02-72. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.