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Optimum thresholding using mean and conditional mean squared error

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  • Figueroa-López, José E.
  • Mancini, Cecilia

Abstract

We consider a univariate semimartingale model for (the logarithm of) an asset price, containing jumps having possibly infinite activity. The nonparametric threshold estimator IV̂n of the integrated variance IV≔∫0Tσs2ds proposed in Mancini (2009) is constructed using observations on a discrete time grid, and precisely it sums up the squared increments of the process when they are below a threshold, which depends on the observation time step and, sometimes, model parameters or latent variables, that need to be estimated. All the threshold functions satisfying given conditions allow asymptotically consistent estimates of IV, however the finite sample properties of IV̂n can depend on the specific choice of the threshold. We aim here at optimally selecting the threshold by minimizing either the estimation mean squared error (MSE) or the conditional mean squared error (cMSE). The last criterion allows to reach a threshold which is optimal not in mean but for the specific volatility and jumps paths at hand.

Suggested Citation

  • Figueroa-López, José E. & Mancini, Cecilia, 2019. "Optimum thresholding using mean and conditional mean squared error," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 179-210.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:208:y:2019:i:1:p:179-210
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2018.09.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rachele Foschi & Francesca Lilla & Cecilia Mancini, 2020. "Warnings about future jumps: properties of the exponential Hawkes model," Working Papers 13/2020, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    2. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Kalnina, Ilze & Xiu, Dacheng, 2020. "High-frequency factor models and regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 86-105.
    3. José E. Figueroa-López & Ruoting Gong & Yuchen Han, 2022. "Estimation of Tempered Stable Lévy Models of Infinite Variation," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 713-747, June.
    4. José E. Figueroa-López & Cheng Li & Jeffrey Nisen, 2020. "Optimal iterative threshold-kernel estimation of jump diffusion processes," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 517-552, October.
    5. José E. Figueroa-López & Jeffrey Nisen, 2019. "Second-order properties of thresholded realized power variations of FJA additive processes," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 431-474, October.
    6. Jos'e E. Figueroa-L'opez & Ruoting Gong & Yuchen Han, 2021. "Estimation of Tempered Stable L\'{e}vy Models of Infinite Variation," Papers 2101.00565, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    7. Milan Kumar Das & Anindya Goswami & Sharan Rajani, 2023. "Inference of Binary Regime Models with Jump Discontinuities," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 85(1), pages 49-86, May.
    8. B. Cooper Boniece & Jos'e E. Figueroa-L'opez & Yuchen Han, 2023. "Data-driven fixed-point tuning for truncated realized variations," Papers 2311.00905, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    9. Yi-di Hua & Ke-man Hu & Lu-yi Qiu & Hong-an Dong & Lei Ding & Sio-Long Lo, 2022. "Exploring the interaction relationship between Beautiful China-SciTech innovation using coupling coordination and predictive analysis: a case study of Zhejiang," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(10), pages 12097-12130, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Threshold estimator; Integrated variance; Lévy jumps; Mean and conditional mean squared error; Feasible tuning of estimation parameters;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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