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A Bayesian approach to projecting forest dynamics and related uncertainty: An application to continuous cover forests

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  • Myllymäki, Mari
  • Kuronen, Mikko
  • Bianchi, Simone
  • Pommerening, Arne
  • Mehtätalo, Lauri

Abstract

Continuous cover forestry (CCF) is forest management based on ecological principles and this management type is currently re-visited in many countries. CCF woodlands are known for their structural diversity in terms of tree size and species and forest planning in CCF needs to make room for multiple forest development pathways as opposed to only one management target. As forest management diversifies and management types such as CCF become more common, models used for projecting forest development need to have a generic and flexible bottom-up design. They also need to be able to handle uncertainty to a larger extent and more comprehensively than is necessary with single, traditional forest management types. In this study, a spatial tree model was designed for analyzing a data set involving 18 plots from CCF stands in Southern Finland. The tree model has specific ingrowth, growth and mortality model components, each including a spatially explicit competition effect involving neighboring trees. Approximations were presented that allow inference of the model components operating in annual steps based on time-series measurements from several years. We employed Bayesian methodology and posterior predictive distributions to simulate forest development for short- and long-term projections. The Bayesian approach allowed us to incorporate uncertainties related to model parameters in the projections, and we analyzed these uncertainties based on three scenarios: (1) known plot and tree level random effects, (2) known plot level random effects but unknown tree level random effects, and (3) unknown random effects. Our simulations revealed that uncertainties related to plot effects can be rather high, particularly when accumulated across many years whilst the length of the simulation step only had a minor effect. As the plot and tree effects are not known when tree models are applied in practice, in such cases, it may be possible to significantly improve model projections for a single plot by taking one-off individual-tree growth measurements from the plot and using them for calibrating the model. Random plot effects as used in our tree model are also a way of describing environmental conditions in CCF stands where other traditional descriptors based on stand height and stand age fail to be suitable any more.

Suggested Citation

  • Myllymäki, Mari & Kuronen, Mikko & Bianchi, Simone & Pommerening, Arne & Mehtätalo, Lauri, 2024. "A Bayesian approach to projecting forest dynamics and related uncertainty: An application to continuous cover forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 491(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:491:y:2024:i:c:s0304380024000577
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110669
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hertog, Iris Maria & Brogaard, Sara & Krause, Torsten, 2022. "Barriers to expanding continuous cover forestry in Sweden for delivering multiple ecosystem services," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Mari Myllymäki & Tomáš Mrkvička & Pavel Grabarnik & Henri Seijo & Ute Hahn, 2017. "Global envelope tests for spatial processes," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 79(2), pages 381-404, March.
    3. Salas-Eljatib, Christian, 2020. "Height growth–rate at a given height: A mathematical perspective for forest productivity," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 431(C).
    4. Häbel, Henrike & Myllymäki, Mari & Pommerening, Arne, 2019. "New insights on the behaviour of alternative types of individual-based tree models for natural forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 406(C), pages 23-32.
    5. Håvard Rue & Sara Martino & Nicolas Chopin, 2009. "Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(2), pages 319-392, April.
    6. Redenbach, Claudia & Särkkä, Aila, 2013. "Parameter estimation for growth interaction processes using spatio-temporal information," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 672-683.
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