IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v473y2022ics0304380022002459.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multi-model approach to integrate climate change impact on carbon sequestration potential of afforestation scenarios in Quebec, Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Ménard, Isabelle
  • Thiffault, Evelyne
  • Boulanger, Yan
  • Boucher, Jean-François

Abstract

Afforestation of unproductive or currently non-forested territories can increase carbon land sinks and thus contribute to mitigate climate change. However, investments on large-scale afforestation could be risky because of the predicted effect of climate change on forest productivity of newly created plantations. The aim of this study was to assess the carbon sequestration and mitigation potential of afforestation scenarios with different species (Picea mariana, Picea glauca, Pinus banksiana, Pinus resinosa and Populus spp) on open woodlands and abandoned farmlands in the Province of Quebec (Canada) under different radiative forcing projections. We modelled carbon dynamics in these lands under three Representative Concentration Pathways projections (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) over the 2021–2100 period. The forest gap model PICUS was used to model tree growth of afforested species as a function of the Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5; these data were then used as input in the Carbon Budget Model – Canadian Forest Sector 3 to simulate the evolution of ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes as a function of forest management and climate. Carbon transfer to harvested wood products, and carbon fluxes associated with product life cycles and substitution effects on markets, were also included in the analyses. Results showed that Pinus species responded more strongly to variations in radiative forcing than for the other simulated species. Overall, aboveground biomass was particularly altered by increased radiative forcing, which in turn reduced harvesting yield and transfers to wood processing and products. At the end of the simulation, despite the expected impacts of radiative forcing on ecosystems, afforestation scenarios on open woodlands with black spruce, white spruce, and jack pine can deliver carbon mitigation of 32% – 70% over the baseline scenario and 4% – 12% for red pine on abandoned farmlands and, hence, contribute to efforts to reduce GHG emissions, especially over the long term. Although climate change is expected to impact the growth of newly planted areas as part of afforestation efforts, the results of our study suggest that the choice of species to plant and the selected forest management strategy have a greater impact on carbon stocks than climate change itself. This study provides a better understanding of the dynamics of afforestation under climate change and whether investments in plantation can contribute to GHG reduction targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Ménard, Isabelle & Thiffault, Evelyne & Boulanger, Yan & Boucher, Jean-François, 2022. "Multi-model approach to integrate climate change impact on carbon sequestration potential of afforestation scenarios in Quebec, Canada," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 473(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:473:y:2022:i:c:s0304380022002459
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110144
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380022002459
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110144?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhen Xu & Carolyn E. Smyth & Tony C. Lemprière & Greg J. Rampley & Werner A. Kurz, 2018. "Climate change mitigation strategies in the forest sector: biophysical impacts and economic implications in British Columbia, Canada," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 257-290, February.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    3. Kurz, W.A. & Dymond, C.C. & White, T.M. & Stinson, G. & Shaw, C.H. & Rampley, G.J. & Smyth, C. & Simpson, B.N. & Neilson, E.T. & Trofymow, J.A. & Metsaranta, J. & Apps, M.J., 2009. "CBM-CFS3: A model of carbon-dynamics in forestry and land-use change implementing IPCC standards," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(4), pages 480-504.
    4. Loïc D’Orangeville & Daniel Houle & Louis Duchesne & Richard P. Phillips & Yves Bergeron & Daniel Kneeshaw, 2018. "Beneficial effects of climate warming on boreal tree growth may be transitory," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Taina Yli-Juuti & Tero Mielonen & Liine Heikkinen & Antti Arola & Mikael Ehn & Sini Isokääntä & Helmi-Marja Keskinen & Markku Kulmala & Anton Laakso & Antti Lipponen & Krista Luoma & Santtu Mikkonen &, 2021. "Significance of the organic aerosol driven climate feedback in the boreal area," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    6. William R. L. Anderegg & Jeffrey M. Kane & Leander D. L. Anderegg, 2013. "Consequences of widespread tree mortality triggered by drought and temperature stress," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 30-36, January.
    7. Eilidh J. Forster & John R. Healey & Caren Dymond & David Styles, 2021. "Commercial afforestation can deliver effective climate change mitigation under multiple decarbonisation pathways," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eilidh J. Forster & John R. Healey & Gary Newman & David Styles, 2023. "Circular wood use can accelerate global decarbonisation but requires cross-sectoral coordination," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    3. Voisin, Nathalie & Dyreson, Ana & Fu, Tao & O'Connell, Matt & Turner, Sean W.D. & Zhou, Tian & Macknick, Jordan, 2020. "Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    4. Aryal, Jeetendra P., 2022. "Contribution of Agriculture to Climate Change and Low-Emission Agricultural Development in Asia and the Pacific," ADBI Working Papers 1340, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. Cristina Cattaneo & Emanuele Massetti, 2019. "Does Harmful Climate Increase Or Decrease Migration? Evidence From Rural Households In Nigeria," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 1-36, November.
    6. Pascalle Smith & Georg Heinrich & Martin Suklitsch & Andreas Gobiet & Markus Stoffel & Jürg Fuhrer, 2014. "Station-scale bias correction and uncertainty analysis for the estimation of irrigation water requirements in the Swiss Rhone catchment under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 521-534, December.
    7. T.M.L. Wigley, 2018. "The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 31-45, March.
    8. Gong, Ziqian & Baker, Justin S. & Wade, Christopher M. & Havlík, Petr, 2024. "Irrigation intensification in U.S. agriculture under climate change – an adaptation mechanism or trade-induced response?," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343581, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Metsaranta, J.M. & Kurz, W.A., 2012. "Inter-annual variability of ecosystem production in boreal jack pine forests (1975–2004) estimated from tree-ring data using CBM-CFS3," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 111-123.
    10. Antoine Leblois, 2021. "Mitigating the impact of bad rainy seasons in poor agricultural regions to tackle deforestation," Post-Print hal-03111007, HAL.
    11. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    12. Islam, AFM Tariqul & Islam, AKM Saiful & Islam, GM Tarekul & Bala, Sujit Kumar & Salehin, Mashfiqus & Choudhury, Apurba Kanti & Dey, Nepal C. & Hossain, Akbar, 2022. "Adaptation strategies to increase water productivity of wheat under changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    13. Jaewon Kwak & Huiseong Noh & Soojun Kim & Vijay P. Singh & Seung Jin Hong & Duckgil Kim & Keonhaeng Lee & Narae Kang & Hung Soo Kim, 2014. "Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    14. Hwang, In Chang, 2013. "Stochastic Kaya model and its applications," MPRA Paper 55099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. Yan Cheng & Stefan Oehmcke & Martin Brandt & Lisa Rosenthal & Adrian Das & Anton Vrieling & Sassan Saatchi & Fabien Wagner & Maurice Mugabowindekwe & Wim Verbruggen & Claus Beier & Stéphanie Horion, 2024. "Scattered tree death contributes to substantial forest loss in California," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    17. Le Bars, Dewi, 2018. "Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors," Earth Arxiv uvw3s, Center for Open Science.
    18. Marcinkowski, Paweł & Piniewski, Mikołaj, 2024. "Future changes in crop yield over Poland driven by climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen stress," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    19. Seidl, Rupert & Fernandes, Paulo M. & Fonseca, Teresa F. & Gillet, François & Jönsson, Anna Maria & Merganičová, Katarína & Netherer, Sigrid & Arpaci, Alexander & Bontemps, Jean-Daniel & Bugmann, Hara, 2011. "Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(4), pages 903-924.
    20. Taylor, Chris & Cullen, Brendan & D'Occhio, Michael & Rickards, Lauren & Eckard, Richard, 2018. "Trends in wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-10.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:473:y:2022:i:c:s0304380022002459. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.