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Commercial afforestation can deliver effective climate change mitigation under multiple decarbonisation pathways

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  • Eilidh J. Forster

    (Bangor University)

  • John R. Healey

    (Bangor University)

  • Caren Dymond

    (Government of British Columbia)

  • David Styles

    (Bangor University
    University of Limerick)

Abstract

Afforestation is an important greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategy but the efficacy of commercial forestry is disputed. Here, we calculate the potential GHG mitigation of a UK national planting strategy of 30,000 ha yr−1 from 2020 to 2050, using dynamic life cycle assessment. What-if scenarios vary: conifer-broadleaf composition, harvesting, product breakouts, and decarbonisation of substituted energy and materials, to estimate 100-year GHG mitigation. Here we find forest growth rate is the most important determinant of cumulative mitigation by 2120, irrespective of whether trees are harvested. A national planting strategy of commercial forest could mitigate 1.64 Pg CO2e by 2120 (cumulative), compared with 0.54–1.72 Pg CO2e for planting only conservation forests, depending on species composition. Even after heavy discounting of future product substitution credits based on industrial decarbonisation projections, GHG mitigation from harvested stands typically surpasses unharvested stands. Commercial afforestation can deliver effective GHG mitigation that is robust to future decarbonisation pathways and wood uses.

Suggested Citation

  • Eilidh J. Forster & John R. Healey & Caren Dymond & David Styles, 2021. "Commercial afforestation can deliver effective climate change mitigation under multiple decarbonisation pathways," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-24084-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24084-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Alon Nissan & Uria Alcolombri & Nadav Peleg & Nir Galili & Joaquin Jimenez-Martinez & Peter Molnar & Markus Holzner, 2023. "Global warming accelerates soil heterotrophic respiration," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Aryal, Jeetendra P., 2022. "Contribution of Agriculture to Climate Change and Low-Emission Agricultural Development in Asia and the Pacific," ADBI Working Papers 1340, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    3. Ménard, Isabelle & Thiffault, Evelyne & Boulanger, Yan & Boucher, Jean-François, 2022. "Multi-model approach to integrate climate change impact on carbon sequestration potential of afforestation scenarios in Quebec, Canada," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 473(C).
    4. Bartels, Lara & Kesternich, Martin & Löschel, Andreas, 2021. "The demand for voluntary carbon sequestration: Experimental evidence from a reforestation project in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-088, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Millinger, M. & Reichenberg, L. & Hedenus, F. & Berndes, G. & Zeyen, E. & Brown, T., 2022. "Are biofuel mandates cost-effective? - An analysis of transport fuels and biomass usage to achieve emissions targets in the European energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    6. McNicol, Louise C. & Williams, Non G. & Chadwick, Dave & Styles, David & Rees, Robert M. & Ramsey, Rachael & Williams, A. Prysor, 2024. "Net Zero requires ambitious greenhouse gas emission reductions on beef and sheep farms coordinated with afforestation and other land use change measures," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    7. Eilidh J. Forster & John R. Healey & Gary Newman & David Styles, 2023. "Circular wood use can accelerate global decarbonisation but requires cross-sectoral coordination," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.

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