IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v399y2019icp39-53.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulation of extreme storm effects on regional forest soil carbon stock

Author

Listed:
  • Yousefpour, Rasoul
  • You, Bin
  • Hanewinkel, Marc

Abstract

This study aims to project changes in soil carbon stocks under different frequencies of storm and climate change scenarios. We calibrated and validated the dynamic process-based soil carbon model “Yasso07” for a wind-throw prone forest area of 1.4 M ha in the State of Baden Württemberg in central Europe, Germany. We fitted climate-biomass models using retrospective climate data and biomass measurements from three consecutive national forest inventories for six forest growth regions. Three IPCC scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), three storm frequencies (10, 20, and 50 years interval), and three post-storm harvest strategies (business-as-usual, full retention, and 50% retention), in combination with a total of 27 scenarios, were applied for projections into the 21st century. We could reduce the uncertainty of YassoBW parameter values significantly by up to 30%, by applying Bayesian calibration, although the absolute value of most parameters did not deviate very much from the original Yasso07 parameters. The projection results showed that forest soil organic carbon (SOC) may lose approximately 30 and 10 t C/ha during the first and the second half of this century, respectively. Three storm frequencies led to a larger range of annual SOC reduction (-0.34, -0.49) t C/ha than climate and harvest strategies (-0.41, -0.42) t C/ha. If no storms occur, the total carbon stock would increase to over 200 t/ha with 258 t/ha under RCP8.5. Considering storm impacts, total forest carbon was reduced from -20 to -90 t C/ha, regarding 10 and 50 year storm frequencies respectively. The largest reduction of forest soil carbon stock originated from the loss in non-solubles (N), followed by acid-solubles (A), humus (H), water-solubles (W) and ethanol-solubles (E).

Suggested Citation

  • Yousefpour, Rasoul & You, Bin & Hanewinkel, Marc, 2019. "Simulation of extreme storm effects on regional forest soil carbon stock," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 399(C), pages 39-53.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:399:y:2019:i:c:p:39-53
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.02.019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380019300882
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.02.019?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xenakis, Georgios & Ray, Duncan & Mencuccini, Maurizio, 2008. "Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis from a coupled 3-PG and soil organic matter decomposition model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 1-16.
    2. Ben D. MacArthur & Richard O. C. Oreffo, 2005. "Bridging the gap," Nature, Nature, vol. 433(7021), pages 19-19, January.
    3. Rupert Seidl & Mart-Jan Schelhaas & Werner Rammer & Pieter Johannes Verkerk, 2014. "Increasing forest disturbances in Europe and their impact on carbon storage," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(9), pages 806-810, September.
    4. Gert-Jan Nabuurs & Marcus Lindner & Pieter J. Verkerk & Katja Gunia & Paola Deda & Roman Michalak & Giacomo Grassi, 2013. "First signs of carbon sink saturation in European forest biomass," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 792-796, September.
    5. Schelhaas, M.J. & Kramer, K. & Peltola, H. & van der Werf, D.C. & Wijdeven, S.M.J., 2007. "Introducing tree interactions in wind damage simulation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 197-209.
    6. Zell, Jürgen & Kändler, Gerald & Hanewinkel, Marc, 2009. "Predicting constant decay rates of coarse woody debris—A meta-analysis approach with a mixed model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(7), pages 904-912.
    7. Valentin Bellassen & Sebastiaan Luyssaert, 2014. "Carbon sequestration: Managing forests in uncertain times," Nature, Nature, vol. 506(7487), pages 153-155, February.
    8. Tuomi, Mikko & Vanhala, Pekka & Karhu, Kristiina & Fritze, Hannu & Liski, Jari, 2008. "Heterotrophic soil respiration—Comparison of different models describing its temperature dependence," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 211(1), pages 182-190.
    9. Tuomi, M. & Thum, T. & Järvinen, H. & Fronzek, S. & Berg, B. & Harmon, M. & Trofymow, J.A. & Sevanto, S. & Liski, J., 2009. "Leaf litter decomposition—Estimates of global variability based on Yasso07 model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(23), pages 3362-3371.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Patrice Loisel & Marielle Brunette & Stéphane Couture, 2020. "Insurance and Forest Rotation Decisions Under Storm Risk," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(2), pages 347-367, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bagnara, Maurizio & Van Oijen, Marcel & Cameron, David & Gianelle, Damiano & Magnani, Federico & Sottocornola, Matteo, 2018. "Bayesian calibration of simple forest models with multiplicative mathematical structure: A case study with two Light Use Efficiency models in an alpine forest," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 371(C), pages 90-100.
    2. Hashimoto, Shoji & Morishita, Tomoaki & Sakata, Tadashi & Ishizuka, Shigehiro & Kaneko, Shinji & Takahashi, Masamichi, 2011. "Simple models for soil CO2, CH4, and N2O fluxes calibrated using a Bayesian approach and multi-site data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(7), pages 1283-1292.
    3. Debojyoti Chakraborty & Albert Ciceu & Dalibor Ballian & Marta Benito Garzón & Andreas Bolte & Gregor Bozic & Rafael Buchacher & Jaroslav Čepl & Eva Cremer & Alexis Ducousso & Julian Gaviria & Jan Pet, 2024. "Assisted tree migration can preserve the European forest carbon sink under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(8), pages 845-852, August.
    4. Kallio, A. Maarit I. & Solberg, Birger & Käär, Liisa & Päivinen, Risto, 2018. "Economic impacts of setting reference levels for the forest carbon sinks in the EU on the European forest sector," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 193-201.
    5. Fu, Yongshuo H. & Campioli, Matteo & Van Oijen, Marcel & Deckmyn, Gaby & Janssens, Ivan A., 2012. "Bayesian comparison of six different temperature-based budburst models for four temperate tree species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 92-100.
    6. Bagnara, Maurizio & Sottocornola, Matteo & Cescatti, Alessandro & Minerbi, Stefano & Montagnani, Leonardo & Gianelle, Damiano & Magnani, Federico, 2015. "Bayesian optimization of a light use efficiency model for the estimation of daily gross primary productivity in a range of Italian forest ecosystems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 306(C), pages 57-66.
    7. Tuomi, M. & Laiho, R. & Repo, A. & Liski, J., 2011. "Wood decomposition model for boreal forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 709-718.
    8. Geoffrey Guest & Francesco Cherubini & Anders Strømman, 2013. "Climate impact potential of utilizing forest residues for bioenergy in Norway," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(8), pages 1089-1108, December.
    9. Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Andrey & Yousefpour, Rasoul, 2021. "Assessing the synergistic value of ecosystem services in European beech forests," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    10. Gianfranco Fabbio & Paolo Cantiani & Fabrizio Ferretti & Umberto Di Salvatore & Giada Bertini & Claudia Becagli & Ugo Chiavetta & Maurizio Marchi & Luca Salvati, 2018. "Sustainable Land Management, Adaptive Silviculture, and New Forest Challenges: Evidence from a Latitudinal Gradient in Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-14, July.
    11. Laurent Augusto & Antra Boča, 2022. "Tree functional traits, forest biomass, and tree species diversity interact with site properties to drive forest soil carbon," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    12. Juston, John & Andrén, Olof & Kätterer, Thomas & Jansson, Per-Erik, 2010. "Uncertainty analyses for calibrating a soil carbon balance model to agricultural field trial data in Sweden and Kenya," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(16), pages 1880-1888.
    13. Lars Högbom & Dalia Abbas & Kęstutis Armolaitis & Endijs Baders & Martyn Futter & Aris Jansons & Kalev Jõgiste & Andis Lazdins & Diana Lukminė & Mika Mustonen & Knut Øistad & Anneli Poska & Pasi Rauti, 2021. "Trilemma of Nordic–Baltic Forestry—How to Implement UN Sustainable Development Goals," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-12, May.
    14. Koponen, Kati & Soimakallio, Sampo & Tsupari, Eemeli & Thun, Rabbe & Antikainen, Riina, 2013. "GHG emission performance of various liquid transportation biofuels in Finland in accordance with the EU sustainability criteria," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 440-448.
    15. Vanessa Taylor & Sarah Ashelford & Patricia Fell & Penelope J Goacher, 2015. "Biosciences in nurse education: is the curriculum fit for practice? Lecturers' views and recommendations from across the UK," Journal of Clinical Nursing, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(19-20), pages 2797-2806, October.
    16. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    17. Ercan Tomakin, 2014. "Teaching English Tenses (grammar) in the Turkish Texts; A Case of Simple Present Tense: Is?l Maketi Iter," International Journal of Learning and Development, Macrothink Institute, vol. 4(1), pages 115-131, March.
    18. Peter Viggo Jakobsen, 2009. "Small States, Big Influence: The Overlooked Nordic Influence on the Civilian ESDP," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 81-102, January.
    19. Akhlaq Amin Wani & Amir Farooq Bhat & Aaasif Ali Gatoo & Shiba Zahoor & Basira Mehraj & Naveed Najam & Qaisar Shafi Wani & M A Islam & Shah Murtaza & Moonisa Aslam Dervash & P K Joshi, 2021. "Assessing relationship of forest biophysical factors with NDVI for carbon management in key coniferous strata of temperate Himalayas," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 1-22, January.
    20. Radha Jagannathan & Michael J. Camasso & Bagavan Das & Jale Tosun & Sadagopan Iyengar, 2017. "Family, society and the individual: determinants of entrepreneurial attitudes among youth in Chennai, South India," Journal of Global Entrepreneurship Research, Springer;UNESCO Chair in Entrepreneurship, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:399:y:2019:i:c:p:39-53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.